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- They are not capable of a treaty: the EU refused to resume dialogue with the Russian Federation
They are not capable of a treaty: the EU refused to resume dialogue with the Russian Federation
The EU has no plans to resume political contacts with Russia, the European Commission told Izvestia. However, Moscow does not see the need to "insist on dialogue now," the Russian Foreign Ministry said. They confirmed that there had been no signals from the unification of Russia. Nevertheless, the position of Brussels seriously complicates the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict. The solution may be a change of elites in European circles or increased pressure from Washington. Whether the United States will do this is in the Izvestia article.
Is a dialogue between Russia and the EU possible
The EU is not ready to resume the negotiation process with Russia, as the United States did.
"Currently, no contacts are expected," Anita Hipper, a representative of the European Commission, told Izvestia.
The Russian Foreign Ministry confirmed to Izvestia that such a track is unlikely to be implemented now.
— The European Union has no desire to talk with Russia, and we see no need to insist on dialogue now. We also do not see any signals from Brussels about its readiness to restore dialogue with us," said Vladislav Maslennikov, director of the Department of European Problems at the Russian Foreign Ministry.
Nevertheless, Russia has repeatedly said it is ready to restore normal relations with Europe. "I hope that this will happen one day, and relations with Europe as a whole, with individual European states, will be restored, and Russia and our European partners are interested in this," Vladimir Putin said last November.
The EU has completely severed political ties with Russia since the start of its conflict. The Association has imposed a total of 16 sets of sanctions, and the possibility of introducing additional restrictions is currently being discussed. In addition, the European Union has frozen Russian assets worth about €210 billion. Most of it — about €183 billion — is in Euroclear, an international settlement and clearing organization based in Belgium. Last year, the EU began transferring income from frozen Russian assets to Ukraine. By the end of April, it is planned to transfer a tranche of €2.1 billion from these funds to Kiev.
Against this background, the probability of starting a negotiation process between the Russian Federation and the EU is really very low. Almost the entire top of the European bureaucracy is hostile towards Moscow. The situation has reached the point where the head of EU diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, called on the leaders of individual countries not to attend the parade in Moscow on May 9. At the same time, Politico previously wrote that even European officials criticize the overly bellicose rhetoric of the former Estonian prime minister. The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in turn, regularly scares the citizens of the community with the "imperial ambitions" of the Russian Federation. The head of the European Council, Antonio Costa, does not stand aside either. "The best way to support Ukraine is to remain consistent in our goal: to achieve a just and lasting peace. This means continuing to put pressure on Russia through sanctions," the former Portuguese prime minister said in March.
In these circumstances, Russia is more likely to rely on communication with individual leaders of European countries. Moscow, in particular, continues to contact Bratislava and Budapest. At the end of 2024, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico visited Moscow, and he intends to return again in May on the occasion of Victory Day. His Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orban also visited the Russian capital last year to discuss the Ukrainian settlement. It is these two countries that actively advocate dialogue with Russia.
How the EU is sabotaging attempts to resolve the conflict
The Russian Federation as a whole has adapted to the sanctions policy of the West, and severing ties with Brussels does not have any powerful impact on the welfare of the country. However, the EU's policy creates a serious obstacle to resolving the main geopolitical problem in the international arena — the Ukrainian crisis. It is the policy of Brussels that hinders the achievement of peace in many ways.
If Washington entered into a dialogue with Moscow after Donald Trump came to the White House, the EU is not just refusing to do so, but is actually sabotaging Russian-American attempts to achieve peace.
— Statements that they are against dialogue and ending the conflict are unacceptable in European discourse. But at the same time, Europe adheres to the positions that were formulated three years ago — about "historical justice", "territorial integrity of Ukraine", "preventing Russia's victory, as this would encourage aggression." The United States, represented by the administration of Donald Trump, is moving further away from these initial attitudes, which were once shared by Washington, based on the real state of affairs," Andrei Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai Club, told Izvestia.
As an example that well demonstrates the unconstructive approach of the EU, we can cite the Black Sea initiative, which the Russian Federation and the United States wanted to revive. However, this requires the lifting of part of the EU's anti-Russian sanctions and the connection of Rosselkhoznadzor to the SWIFT system. Brussels is not ready to do this until the conflict ends. At the same time, the EU publicly insists that it be completed, in fact, on Ukraine's terms — first of all, we are talking about the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions, which is unacceptable for the Russian Federation.
The restrained reaction of the European Union to the Easter truce announced by Russia on April 19 until midnight on April 21 is indicative. The European Commission only stated that they were waiting for an actual cease-fire. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani called Moscow's actions an important signal. In reality, Russia's move was welcomed only in Hungary by the ruling FIDESZ–Civil Union party, led by Viktor Orban.
Against this background, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Europe should participate in the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine, in particular, because of EU sanctions that may become part of the agreement. "I always remind everyone that part of the sanctions against Russia, a significant part, were imposed by Europe, we cannot lift them. Therefore, they can be part of the deal. They must be involved, no matter what," he said.
EU military support for Kiev
Moreover, after Donald Trump's return to the White House, the EU has intensified its efforts on the military track. France, a key EU player, is still promoting, together with the UK and several other countries, the idea of sending troops to Ukraine, calling it a peacekeeping mission. Although the Russian Federation has repeatedly warned that the appearance of Western contingents would be a serious escalation and unacceptable for Moscow. In addition, the Union will increase military assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine this year. "The EU has now committed to allocate €23 billion for military support to Ukraine, which exceeds last year's level of assistance in the amount of €20 billion," Kaya Kallas said. And the future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz allowed the transfer of long-range Taurus missiles to Kiev, with which the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be able to strike deep into Russian territory.
Thus, the EU is determined to continue the conflict, although, as Andrei Kortunov says, without "American support, they can do little on their own."
"The United States continues to work in this direction (of the settlement. — Izvestia) with Europeans and Ukrainians. Then, of course, we would expect the Europeans and Ukrainians to show a commitment to finding a peaceful settlement. Unfortunately, we see from Europe a focus on continuing the war," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said earlier.
The EU's position to a certain extent gives Kiev carte blanche to continue fighting. According to Russia's permanent representative to the UN, Vasily Nebenzi, a cease-fire in Ukraine is not yet possible, since Kiev, for its part, has failed in its attempt to stop attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure. On March 18, Russian President Vladimir Putin supported the idea of his American counterpart Donald Trump on the mutual refusal of Russia and Ukraine from attacks on energy facilities for 30 days.
"We had an attempt at a limited ceasefire regarding the energy infrastructure, which was not respected by the Ukrainian side. In these circumstances, it is simply unrealistic to talk about a cease—fire at this stage," Nebenzia said.
One of the prerequisites for restoring dialogue may be a gradual change of elites in Europe. Andrey Kortunov draws attention to the fact that the political processes that we are witnessing in the United States are partially manifested in Europe.
— If we take the example of Germany, we can assume that the current Friedrich Merz coalition will be the last coalition without the participation of the Alternative for Germany party. As the AFD's popularity continues to grow, it will use all the growing problems characteristic of the new "grand coalition" in its rhetoric. It can be assumed that early elections will be held in Germany again and the future government will also fall apart. Of course, if the political landscape in Germany changes, it will greatly affect the entire European Union," he said in an interview with Izvestia.
The political landscape may change in France after the departure of President Emmanuel Macron, the analyst believes. If right-wing forces come to power in one form or another, this will also affect the politics of other European countries.
— The question is how the multifactorial crisis that is currently being observed in Europe will develop further. If it gets worse, and there are many reasons for this, then we will face, if not a political revolution in Europe, then at least a serious transformation of European politics. And then new initiatives are possible, especially if the active phase of the Ukrainian conflict ends by that time," concluded the Valdai Club expert.
If a change of elite does not occur in the near future, then another possibility is to increase US pressure on its allies through, for example, tariff policy on European goods. Now, however, there is a risk that the United States, on the contrary, may abandon attempts to end the Ukrainian crisis. "Within a few days, it is necessary to understand whether it is possible to achieve a settlement of the conflict in Ukraine in the near future. If both sides are serious about peace, then we want to help, otherwise we will move on," Marco Rubio said.
However, US Vice President Jay Dee Vance expressed optimism about the end of the conflict in Ukraine and announced progress in its settlement. He said this at a meeting with Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in the Italian capital last week. Donald Trump even said that "everything is coming to a head now."
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