Military turnaround: will the EU become Ukraine's main arms donor

Despite the fact that Europe is not fully capable of replacing the United States as Ukraine's main military donor, Russia should not underestimate the ability of the community to consolidate, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. According to their estimates, European weapons giants can produce all types of modern weapons today, with the exception, for example, of fifth-generation fighters. Experts believe that Europe will be able to provide Kiev with the promised 2 million shells in 2025. The meeting of the EU foreign Ministers on April 14 once again showed that the countries of the community are extremely hostile towards Russia, while Hungary again stressed its unwillingness to participate in common military assistance programs to Ukraine.

EU countries intend to continue arming the Armed Forces of Ukraine

Following a new meeting of EU foreign ministers on April 14, the bloc countries decided to continue supporting Kiev. The head of the European Diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, said in Luxembourg that the EU has already managed to collect two thirds of the military package, which is aimed at supplying the Armed Forces with 2 million rounds of military aid. According to her, these munitions will reach Ukraine "as soon as possible." In total, European countries have already committed to allocate €23 billion, which is more than last year.

Kallas also confirmed that the EU countries are working on the 17th package of restrictions. In particular, she hopes that the introduction of "more sanctions against Russian oil and gas will have a greater effect" on Russia's military potential. At the same time, the head of the European diplomacy stressed that this requires the consent of 27 countries of the community. French Foreign Minister Jean Noel Barraud called for the toughest sanctions to be imposed on Russia in order to strangle its economy and prevent it from fueling its military efforts. He again accused the Russian Federation of constantly violating the ceasefire, which Kiev, according to the diplomat, fully complies with. At the same time, Moscow regularly reports that it is Ukraine, contrary to Russian-American agreements, that is constantly attacking the energy infrastructure of the Russian Federation.

Meanwhile, there is no complete consolidation within the EU. For example, the Hungarian Foreign Minister again stated that his country had not supported and would not support any pro-military proposals from Brussels, as they were clearly aimed at prolonging the conflict and posed a danger to Europe and Hungary. In his opinion, the "cherry on the cake" is that the EU authorities want to convene an informal meeting of the community's foreign ministers in May in Ukraine.

At the Luxembourg summit, German Foreign Minister Annalena Berbock made a paradoxical statement: "Strengthening defense and supporting Ukraine is a peacekeeping policy." She added that Berlin would provide Kiev with 500,000 of the 2 million previously promised ammunition. Moreover, the future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz allowed the delivery of Taurus cruise missiles to Kiev, subject to coordination with partners in the European Union. By the way, Kaya Kallas did not object, noting that "every member of the European Union is doing what they can for Ukraine." Recall that in June 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin said: Russia reserves the right to also supply long-range weapons to Western opponents. "If they supply these weapons to the war zone and call for them to be used on our territory, why don't we have the right to do the same and respond to it in a mirror way?" the Russian leader said at the time.

At the same time, at the April 11 meeting of the contact group on assistance to Ukraine in the Ramstein format, the United States did not announce new arms packages for Kiev. However, according to Bloomberg, Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth, who participated in the meeting via video link, said that Washington welcomes Europe's increased assistance to Kiev, but the position of the administration of US President Donald Trump on security guarantees has not changed: the United States does not want to provide them to Western forces that may go to Ukraine.

What are the capabilities of the European military industrial complex

Europe is not fully capable of replacing the United States as the main military donor, and some countries already have a shortage of defensive assets, such as Patriot air defense systems, says Vasily Klimov, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security and associate professor at MGIMO of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, in an interview with Izvestia.

— But, for example, the Baltic countries will traditionally, at the expense of their own and other people's funds, supply maximum weapons to Ukraine. The Baltic countries and Sweden are actively buying weapons, gunpowder and a grenade launcher from Finland and supplying some of it to Ukraine," he said.

According to the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine, Germany announced the largest package of military assistance to Kiev for 2025 at the Ramstein meeting. In particular, it will include four IRIS-T air defense systems, 300 interceptor missiles for them, 30 missiles for Patriot systems, and 15 Leopard 1 tanks. In total, additional German aid until 2029 will amount to €11 billion. The UK will provide funding to the Armed Forces in the amount of 450 million pounds, including thousands of UAVs and radar systems. In total, Norway plans to increase its military support to Ukraine by €5 billion in 2025.

The most dangerous thing for Russia in this situation is to underestimate the enemy's abilities, therefore, when analyzing the situation, it is necessary to proceed from the most unfavorable scenarios in order to be able to fend off plans, said Igor Korotchenko, editor—in-chief of the National Defense magazine.

— Whether or not the EU is capable of becoming a key military donor to Ukraine is a secondary issue. The main thing is that they have consolidated at the political level and confirmed during numerous meetings and consultations their readiness over the coming years to provide military-technical and financial support to the Zelensky regime based on the capabilities of the military-industrial complex of the EU member states," the source told Izvestia.

According to him, the European military-industrial complex is capable of producing all types of modern weapons today, with the possible exception of fifth-generation fighters. And given that the transition of the economy and industry of the European Union to a military track has already begun, one way or another Ukraine will be pumped with weapons and money.

How much money and weapons did the EU and the USA give to Ukraine

At the beginning of 2025, the US military support to Ukraine over three years amounted to $65.9 billion. According to open sources, the EU has provided Kiev with $52 billion worth of weapons during this time, while the UK has provided $10.5 billion. Based on these figures, the withdrawal of American support should at least halve Ukraine's military potential.

As for the direct supply of shells to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, European countries will have to look for opportunities, increasing their own production, and try to purchase them somewhere on the foreign market, Igor Korotchenko explains.

"It is important for Russia to work with partners such as India, Serbia and a number of other countries to block the possibility of exporting or re—exporting shell products to Ukraine through certain gaskets companies," he added.

In recent years, Europe's largest arms concerns have significantly increased their production of shells, so 2 million is quite an achievable figure for the EU, says Vadim Koroshchupov, a military expert and junior researcher at IMEMO RAS.

— By the end of 2024, Rheinmetall has reached 700,000 shells per year, and by 2025 they want to produce 1.1 million. European arms giants are actively consolidating small industries within themselves. In the Scandinavian countries, Norwegian-Finnish Nammo has become such a giant, in France — EURENCO. These three companies specialize specifically in ammunition and special chemicals," he said.

The expert recalled that Brussels' ammunition initiatives are aimed not only at the production of ammunition within the European Union, but also at their purchase worldwide. It is worth noting that the Russian military-industrial complex does not stand still. In June 2024, Vladimir Putin announced that the volume of ammunition production in Russia had increased 20-fold in two years. Before that, the president said that the production of drones had quadrupled.