Value added: real consumer loan rates are close to 40%
Banks have sharply raised the full cost of loans — in two weeks it increased by 2.5 percentage points and reached an average of 40% in the largest financial institutions, Izvestia found out. At the same time, several players (VTB, Alfa-Bank and MKB) sharply raised the upper limit of the UCS to 60-70%. This means that the policy of financial institutions towards risky borrowers is becoming more and more stringent. Only an ideal client can get a cheap loan, and they will simply be inaccessible to an ordinary person. However, starting from the beginning of April, the requirements for the maximum level of the CPI should start working, and in the second half of the year, rates may go down along with the key one, experts believe.
Loan rates in March
By the end of March, the average level of the total cost of loans approached 40%. This follows from data from the websites of banks that Izvestia studied. On average, among the top 15 market players, it jumped by 2.5 percentage points in two weeks. This is due to a sharp tightening of the policy towards high-risk clients of a number of financial institutions.
The UC includes all expenses that the borrower pays during the loan period. In addition to the rate, this is usually also the cost of insurance and commissions — for servicing, maintaining the borrower's accounts, issuing cards, and other additional services.
During the period from March 10 to March 27, the real consumer loan rates at the largest banks reached 39.6%. At the same time, the upper limit of the UCS has almost reached 50% on average, and for individual players it has gone to 60-76%.
Three major players have sharply raised the maximum cost of loans (by 20-30 percentage points at once) — these are VTB, Alfa-Bank and MKB, according to data from the websites of these organizations. This means that lending to less reliable customers will be even more expensive, because with the help of high rates, credit institutions are insured against possible risks.
However, the same players lowered the lower threshold of the CPM by an average of 2 percentage points, making their products only slightly more accessible to reliable customers, Izvestia found out.
In addition, over the past two weeks, Gazprombank has increased the level of CPM by an average of 4 percentage points, Rosselkhoznadzor — by 0.4 percentage points, according to data from their websites. At the same time, Ak Bars Bank lowered real interest rates by an average of 2 percentage points.
"The minimum rates are offered to borrowers with a high credit rating, stable income and no delinquencies, while the maximum rates are applied to customers with an increased risk of default, for example, if they have debts, low income or unstable employment," explained Magomed Gamzaev, director of the credit department at Compare.
The least risky segment for a financial organization is existing customers (preferably those who receive a salary to an account in the organization) and those who have already taken out a loan from them and did not allow delays, said the head of the Bank's expert analytics.<url> Inna Soldatenkova. However, even for this category, the rates remain at peak and, in fact, barrier values. According to Izvestia, the lower threshold of the UC is, on average, 29.3%.
Why are real loan rates rising?
Loan rates are rising not only because of the key, but also because of the cost of money that banks attract from the public, explained economist Andrei Barkhota. Back at the end of 2024, deposit yields averaged 22% at a Central Bank rate of 21%. This atypical situation was caused by a surge in market demand for depositors' funds.
At the same time, deposit rates dropped to below the key level only in mid-March, according to calculations by Izvestia. Banks have to keep high interest rates on loans in order to discourage expensive funding in previous months (when they set high returns on deposits).
At the same time, financial institutions can indeed reduce rates for more reliable clients, but this will necessarily be offset by their growth for other categories, Andrei Barkhota emphasized. Reducing the minimum CPM for a number of major players does not mean that conditions there have improved for the average customer.
In addition, there is a general decrease in customer quality in the market, said a representative of Dom Bank.Russian Federation" by Daria Morozova. In addition, due to the restrictions of the Central Bank, it is becoming less profitable for market participants to lend to borrowers who spend more than half of their income on debt servicing, the PSB representative said. The regulator introduces such measures so that already credited citizens do not gain even more loans.
In addition, financial organizations use the last opportunity to determine real loan rates without restrictions. The Central Bank abolished the requirements for the maximum level of UCS from January to March, recalled Anna Zemlyanova, chief analyst at Sovcombank. Next month, this measure will work again and the market will have fewer opportunities to adjust the cost of loans to market conditions.
Izvestia sent a request to the Central Bank, whether it is planned to extend the moratorium on limiting the maximum CPM.
In the second quarter, loan rates are likely to remain unchanged, said Daria Morozova from Dom.rf Bank. However, in the second half of the year, their cost will gradually begin to decrease — according to the forecasts of analysts interviewed by Izvestia, the Central Bank may switch to a cycle of key reduction in the summer.
Who takes loans under 60%
The growth of the average CPI by 2.5 percentage points in two weeks indicates a general increase in the cost of loans and a decrease in their availability to most customers, said Denis Astafyev, head of the SharesPro investment company. This is especially true for borrowers with medium and low credit ratings, whose conditions will continue to tighten.
The overpayment on a two—year loan of 120 thousand rubles with a 40% CAP will amount to 56 thousand rubles, which is almost half of the initial amount, said Magomed Gamzaev from Compare. The rising cost of servicing new debts will only further limit the solvency of customers.
Loans with the maximum CPM level are received by clients with a low rating (below 600 points), overdue on previous loans and without a confirmed income level, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. We are mainly talking about clients from the open market who have not used the bank's services before.
The share of loans at ultra-high rates from large financial institutions does not exceed 10%, and they are approved only in one case out of ten, explained Vladimir Chernov. Dom Bank.The Russian Federation clarified that only 20% of borrowers receive loans at the highest rates from the total volume of loans. The share of medium and small market players can reach 30%.
"This means that people are really ready to take out loans at 40-60% and the demand for them remains,— Magomed Gamzaev summed up.
People usually take out such expensive loans when they are in dire need of funds to cover previous debts, Andrei Barkhota said. It is not uncommon to get into debt bondage in difficult life situations, for example, when money is urgently needed for medical treatment, Vladimir Chernov added.
The population's need for borrowed funds will not disappear completely, said the representative of "I will choose.<url>" by Anna Romanenko. Less affluent segments of the population will continue to take them to make unplanned but necessary purchases.
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