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Military atom: a split is intensifying in Eastern Europe due to the deployment of nuclear weapons
Bulgaria will not allow the appearance of French nuclear weapons on the territory of the country, Izvestia found out. At the same time, Poland is calling on its allies to disperse such arsenals. Romania considers it unlikely that weapons of mass destruction will be deployed in the immediate vicinity of the eastern border of NATO. The United States also opposes the proliferation of nuclear weapons in Eastern Europe. Earlier, France proposed to deploy a "nuclear umbrella" over Europe. The prospects for the militarization of Eastern Europe and the reaction of other countries, including the Russian Federation, are described in the Izvestia article.
Where France can deploy nuclear weapons
The discussion on the deployment of French nuclear weapons in European countries began after the address of the President of this republic, Emmanuel Macron, to the nation on March 5. In it, he suggested that Europe use the French arsenal of nuclear deterrence to protect the entire continent from threats from Russia. At the same time, Paris intends to retain control over these weapons and the decision on their use.
After that, Macron intended to deploy two squadrons of Rafale fighter jets with supersonic nuclear warheads at the Luxey airbase on the border with Germany in 2035. It should be noted that this base was used to base bombers with nuclear bombs during the Cold War.
The French Navy's Luxeuil airbase on the border with Germany
Bulgaria will not allow the deployment of French nuclear weapons on the territory of the country if the government announces such plans, Angel Georgiev, deputy chairman of the Foreign Policy Committee of the Bulgarian parliament and a member of the opposition Vozrozhdenie party, told Izvestia. He recalled that Sofia had signed the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
— Vozrozhdenie is categorically against the deployment of French nuclear weapons, as well as any foreign armed forces on the territory of our country. This applies to the NATO states. We will not allow this to happen, and we will actively work to prevent it if the Bulgarian government announces such intentions. Bulgaria is a party to the Treaty on the Non—Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons," Georgiev stressed.
French President Emmanuel Macron surrounded by military pilots at Luxeuil Air Base
Bulgaria is consistently building cooperation with France in the nuclear and military fields. In February 2024, Paris and Sofia signed an agreement of intent on cooperation in the field of nuclear energy. Among other things, the parties intend to work on long-term planning for the construction of new nuclear facilities in Bulgaria, including small and large reactors. In the summer of 2022, Joel Barre, head of the General Directorate of Armaments of France, and Rumen Radaev, President of Bulgaria, agreed on cooperation between the two countries in the defense sector and strengthening the eastern flank of NATO. There are four military facilities of the alliance in Bulgaria, including two air bases — Bezmer and Graf Ignatievo.
Poland has stated that it is ready to consider the French proposal to deploy nuclear weapons on its territory. Prime Minister of the Republic Donald Tusk noted that Warsaw is having "serious conversations" with the French about their nuclear umbrella project. Lithuania also expressed its support for Macron's proposals. And the leader of the CDU party in Germany and the likely future Chancellor Friedrich Merz, although he ruled out the option in which Germany would have its own nuclear weapons, said he intended to discuss with France and Britain the issue of protecting Europe through their nuclear forces.
The NATO airbase "Bezmer" in Bulgaria
However, there are more cautious voices in Eastern Europe that oppose the militarization of the region. For example, the head of the Slovak government, Robert Fico, reacted negatively to the French proposal. Acting Romanian President Ilie Bolojan believes it is unlikely that nuclear weapons will be deployed in the immediate vicinity of NATO's eastern border, despite Poland's request.
As for the Nordic countries, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said in May 2024 that his country would be open to American nuclear weapons if war broke out. At the same time, Finland has no plans to deploy such weapons on its territory, President Alexander Stubb said last year. The Foreign Ministries of both countries declined to comment on the deployment of French nuclear weapons.
The state of France's nuclear weapons
The United States is now providing Europe with a "nuclear umbrella." According to the calculations of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists for 2023, there were about 100 B61 nuclear bombs in this region. They are deployed at six air bases in Belgium, Italy, Germany, the Netherlands and Turkey. Russia has repeatedly stated that it considers the deployment of American nuclear weapons in Europe unacceptable.
The French nuclear arsenal has remained unchanged over the past decade; it contains about 290 warheads, according to the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists. Unlike the United States, France has only two components of a nuclear triad of three: air and sea.
A French Rafale MF3 carrier-based fighter bomber with an ASMPA missile takes off from the deck of an aircraft carrier
At sea, Paris has four Triomphant-type SSBNS (nuclear submarine with ballistic missiles), which carry long-range missiles and have been in service since 1997. Triomphant submarines are running out of life by the 2030s, so France has begun developing a new submarine, the SNLE-3G.
The air component of the French forces is based on the ASMPA cruise missile with a range of about 500 km. They can be carried by two types of aircraft — the Rafale BF3 land-based fighter-bomber (about 40 units) and the Rafale MF3 carrier-based fighter-bomber (10 units). These aircraft can fly about 2,000 km without refueling.
French Triomphant Le Vigilant type nuclear submarine in one of the French Navy
The French nuclear doctrine is based on the following principle: to ensure one's own protection by making the damage to a potential aggressor disproportionately great. The use of nuclear weapons "would be possible only in extreme circumstances of legitimate self-defense," according to the 2017 Strategic Review on Defense and National Security. This means that in order to deploy the "umbrella" over the whole of Europe, the doctrine will also have to be changed.
France's nuclear arsenal remains quite decent today. Unlike many Western countries, the Fifth Republic did not stop its modernization. France could increase its arsenal, especially since during the Cold War Paris possessed very advanced intermediate, medium and short-range ballistic missiles, Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security, told Izvestia.
French Rafale BF3 ground-based fighter bomber during aerial refueling
— Will it be enough or not (to deploy a nuclear umbrella. — Ed.), it is difficult to say, because the reliability of nuclear deterrence is measured not only by quantity, but also by quality, doctrine and potential," the expert noted.
It will be very interesting for the French to get some kind of European participation in the deployment of their "nuclear umbrella". In particular, we may be talking about financial assistance or the participation of general-purpose forces in providing combat patrols of the French nuclear weapons carriers themselves.
The reaction of other powers to Macron's initiatives
The prospect of the militarization of Europe and the deployment of French nuclear forces could potentially worsen the already difficult situation in the region. Therefore, Macron's initiatives are rejected by Russia and the United States.
The statements of the French president about the "nuclear umbrella" are very dangerous for the European continent, said spokesman Dmitry Peskov. According to him, Europe is acting aggressively against the background of the new US administration. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that Macron's nuclear rhetoric is a direct threat to our country. According to the Russian minister, in order to save his own reputation, the French leader "may commit completely thoughtless acts."
A training launch of the American Minuteman III ballistic missile from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California
US President Donald Trump opposed the further proliferation of nuclear weapons to eastern Europe, Vice President Jay Dee Vance said in an interview with Fox News on March 14. Trump himself stressed that he was more interested in disarming nuclear-armed countries than in inflaming the situation.
— I know that Russia and we have much more of it (nuclear weapons. — Ed.), China will have the same amount within 4-5 years. It would be great if we could all get rid of nuclear weapons, because the power of nuclear weapons is insane," Trump said.
Russian mobile ground-based missile system "Yars" before entering combat patrol routes
In February, the American leader confirmed his intention to negotiate with Russia and China on reducing the number of nuclear warheads. And during their telephone conversation on March 18, the leaders of the Russian Federation and the United States discussed, among other things, "establishing cooperation on nuclear nonproliferation and global security."
If France does agree to deploy its nuclear weapons on the territory of one of the European countries, then Paris will need significant resources and time to prepare the infrastructure. Against the background of the dialogue between the United States and the Russian Federation, France, together with the United Kingdom, became the leaders of the radical anti-Russian camp. Recall that one of the reasons for the start of the CBO was the refusal of NATO to provide Russia with security guarantees, including the withdrawal of the alliance's infrastructure to the borders of 1997. The possible deployment of the French nuclear arsenal in Eastern Europe will create new threats to Russia and will only intensify the conflict.
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