Atom games: the Russian Federation questioned the possibilities of Paris and London to take Europe under their nuclear shield

The deployment of a Franco-British nuclear umbrella over Germany is unlikely to be feasible, Mikhail Ulyanov, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to International Organizations in Vienna, told Izvestia. In his opinion, the words of the future German Chancellor Friedrich Merz about the need for such a European umbrella reflect a "nervous reaction" to Washington's adjustment of its approaches to European allies. According to experts, France, unlike the United States, will never decide to transfer its nuclear warheads to Germany. The prospects for the strategic autonomy of Europe are described in the Izvestia article.

Germany is counting on nuclear weapons from France and Great Britain

Moscow will closely monitor any possible changes in the nuclear policy of the North Atlantic Alliance countries, Mikhail Ulyanov, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to International Organizations in Vienna, told Izvestia. At the same time, he described as "impulsive" and "not very thoughtful" recent statements by Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union that won the German elections, who believes that Berlin should discuss with Paris and London the possibility of extending the Franco-British nuclear umbrella to Germany.

— It was a kind of nervous reaction to Washington's certain adjustment of its approaches to European allies. The idea of a future German chancellor raises a lot of unanswered questions. For example, why expand the French and British nuclear umbrellas to Germany? After all, no one canceled the American nuclear umbrella. The United States has not announced its intention to withdraw its nuclear weapons from the territories of European countries. Then why "plant a garden with nuclear umbrellas"? — the diplomat noted.

Currently, American nuclear weapons are deployed in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey, that is, the countries of the alliance that do not have their own nuclear weapons. According to data for 2025, the United States collectively stores 100 nuclear bombs on the continent. It is assumed that in the event of a conflict, the air forces of these countries, in agreement with Washington, can use them. As for France and Britain, the only European powers with nuclear weapons, they play, as stated in the documents of the alliance, "an independent deterrent role and make a significant contribution to the overall security of the Alliance." According to data for 2023, France was armed with 290 nuclear warheads, while the United Kingdom, in 2024, possessed 225 charges.

According to Mikhail Ulyanov, it is completely unclear how the deployment of the Franco-British nuclear umbrella can be implemented in practice. So, the diplomat continues, the entire arsenal of Great Britain consists of four nuclear submarines, and it is quite difficult to imagine that one of them will be deployed in Germany.

— France has a slightly different situation. In addition to several submarines, it has air-launched nuclear warheads. But what is the point of hypothetically placing some of them on the territory of Germany? In short, it seems to me that the phrase thrown by Mertz should not be given increased importance. At least until this idea was officially included in the agenda of Germany's foreign and defense policy. It is likely that it will not receive further development due to its somewhat extravagance and obvious redundancy, even from the point of view of German and national interests," he said.

Discussions on European nuclear deterrence

Although US President Donald Trump has not yet directly threatened to reduce the US nuclear forces based in Europe, discussions about the role of France and Britain in the field of nuclear deterrence have resumed amid changes in the general rhetoric of the White House. Representatives of the new American administration no longer call Russia the main threat to European security. The United States also openly says that it must take over its own defense and that a possible European peacekeeping mission in Ukraine will not operate within the framework of NATO security guarantees.

The resumption of direct talks between Moscow and Washington has only increased the intensity of alarmist sentiments in Europe. The Baltic states, Poland, the Netherlands, and France are already ready to increase defense spending. On February 25, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced an increase in spending in this area to 2.5% of the kingdom's GDP by 2027. It was Paris and London that were the first to propose sending peacekeeping troops to Ukraine.

Emmanuel Macron plays a special role in discussions about Europe's defense capability. So, at the beginning of last year, he proposed launching a new dialogue on France's nuclear strategy with key European partners, as well as organizing joint exercises on deterrence. Last week, after holding two emergency summits with key allies, he reiterated that the country's vital interests, which could prompt the president to use nuclear weapons, "have always had a European dimension." By the way, speaking about the Franco-British nuclear umbrella, Friedrich Merz stressed that the French authorities had repeatedly raised this issue with the German government, however, such proposals "always remained unanswered" by Berlin.On February 25, the British newspaper The Telegraph reported, citing an unnamed French official, that "the deployment of several French nuclear fighters in Germany should not cause difficulties and could be a serious signal to Russia."

Despite the fact that the nuclear arsenals of Great Britain and France are not comparable in quantity to those of the United States, these two countries may well cover Europe with their nuclear umbrella, Dmitry Stefanovich, a researcher at the IMEMO RAS Center for International Security and co-founder of the Watfor project, said in an interview with Izvestia.

— First of all, we are talking about France, because the UK has left the EU and is more dependent on the Americans. But France will definitely not delegate its weapons to anyone or coordinate their use with anyone. Even if they decide to do this, it will be a rather complicated process both from the point of view of coordination and from a technical point of view. But this does not prevent Macron from declaring that they are ready to deploy this umbrella, from which many conclude that it is already deployed over Europe," he said.

French nuclear forces

In October 2024, French Minister of the Armed Forces Sebastien Lecorny ruled out the possibility of transferring control of the French nuclear forces to NATO. Recall that in 1966, in an effort to restore full-fledged military sovereignty to the country, the President of the republic, Charles de Gaulle, decided to withdraw from the military structure of NATO. However, in 2009, under Nicolas Sarkozy, France returned without joining the alliance's Nuclear Planning Group.

France should not share its nuclear sovereignty with anyone, as this will weaken the country, MEP Thierry Mariani is convinced.

— Macron has completely compromised himself in national politics, and therefore he is trying to gain points in the international arena. Unlike de Gaulle, Macron does not have strategic thinking. Now, when his powers expire, he dreams of transferring France's nuclear forces to another state. His goal is to lower France's role on the world stage by squandering the legacy of General de Gaulle," the politician explained to Izvestia.

If Germany wants to come under the nuclear umbrella of France, the Fifth Republic will never decide to transfer its charges to it and will use only its carriers in the event of a conflict, said Vadim Koroshchupov, a military expert and a junior researcher at IMEMO RAS.

— Even with a strong desire, it would be very difficult to carry out these procedures. You must get this warhead from a secret bunker, secretly transfer it to Germany, observing all protocols. In which cars, on which trains, on which routes, who will guard it so that she is not abducted. This is a very complicated and risky procedure. In addition, Germany is a fairly pacifist country, and it is unlikely that they will want to deploy additional nuclear warheads there. France has everything equipped. She has submarines and airplanes that can operate normally," he said.

In any case, discussions about European nuclear deterrence and increased defense spending show that at this stage, European countries have decided to move in the opposite direction than that outlined by Washington and Moscow. On February 24, Vladimir Putin admitted that Russia, the United States and China could agree on a 50% arms reduction. Earlier, Trump made a proposal to reduce military spending by the three countries, and he also said he wanted to negotiate nuclear arms control with Russia and China.