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- In continuation of the conversation: what will Moscow achieve at the meeting with the United States in Riyadh
In continuation of the conversation: what will Moscow achieve at the meeting with the United States in Riyadh
The next round of negotiations between Russia and the United States will be held on March 24. Moscow has formed an expert group in consultation with representatives of Washington. It will be headed by Russian Senator Grigory Karasin and adviser to the head of the FSB Sergey Beseda. Russia has a very strong team that will clearly and correctly pursue its line, Sergei Kislyak, first deputy chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, told Izvestia. Thus, the delegations of the two countries, among other things, will work out aspects of the possible resumption of the Black Sea initiative. At the same time, Brussels insists on the need to be present at the negotiating table, but continues its bellicose rhetoric. Kiev is not ready to make concessions: Ukrainian drones attacked the Russian rear again on March 20. Moscow, however, hopes that the United States has heard Russia's statements about the need to stop military aid and provide intelligence to Kiev.
New negotiations between Russia and the United States in Riyadh
Moscow and Washington continue consultations on the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. New contacts will take place on March 24 in Riyadh. On the Russian side, Grigory Karasin, Chairman of the Federation Council Committee on International Affairs, and Sergey Beseda, Adviser to the Director of the FSB, will take part in them. Russian Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov stressed that the appointed people are experienced negotiators who are well versed in international issues. The American side had previously announced that the talks would be held on March 23 in Jeddah.
"I believe that we have a very strong team and it will clearly and correctly pursue the line," Sergey Kislyak, First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council's International Affairs Committee, said in a conversation with Izvestia.
Grigory Karasin is a well—known politician and diplomat. For a long time at the Russian Foreign Ministry, he oversaw issues of bilateral relations with the CIS countries and work with compatriots abroad. Sergey Beseda is a figure less familiar to the general public, but he also has a solid track record. In 2012, he was a member of the organizing committee for the Russian Federation's chairmanship in the SCO and BRICS, and in 2019 he worked in the Interdepartmental Commission on Russia's Participation in the G8 and G20. It is noteworthy that in the fall of 2023, the head of Ukrainian intelligence, Kirill Budanov (included in the list of terrorists and extremists in the Russian Federation), called the Conversation a dangerous man who caused Kiev many problems.
There may be many issues at the meeting that will need to be worked out. The work will be carried out by specialists from our and the American sides, and it is necessary to start from what the presidents agreed on, the senator believes.
The format of the upcoming talks is expert consultations, which were agreed upon by Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump during a telephone conversation on March 18. The conversation between the leaders, which lasted more than two hours, became a turning point: the parties agreed on the mutual refusal of the Russian Federation and Ukraine from attacks on energy infrastructure for 30 days and the exchange of prisoners (175 for 175), which was carried out on March 19.
Russia immediately stopped the attacks, but Kiev, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, violated the agreement a few hours later by attacking an oil transshipment facility in the Kuban. On the night of March 20, the Ukrainian Armed Forces attacked the Saratov region with drones. The Ministry of Defense reported that 54 drones were shot down. Saratov and Engels were mostly hit by UAVs: in the second city, the attack led to a fire at the airfield. Eyewitnesses reported an attempted strike on the territory of a local oil refinery, in the area of which the fire occurred. The Ukrainian sabotage highlighted the fragility of the agreements reached and the need for their detailed elaboration.
As Russian Presidential aide Yuri Ushakov noted, the negotiations in Riyadh will focus on the possibility of reviving the well-known Black Sea initiative, concluded in July 2022 with the mediation of the United Nations, but never fully implemented. We are talking about the safe export of grain and fertilizers, as well as guarantees of navigation in the Black Sea. "If there is a desire for peace, then rhetoric should be supported in deeds," said Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova, hinting at the need for practical steps on the part of Washington.
Moscow hopes that the United States has heard Russia's statements about the need to stop military assistance to Ukraine and providing it with intelligence information, the Russian Foreign Ministry said. During the dialogue, special attention is paid to the normalization of relations between Moscow and Washington. The phone conversation between Putin and Trump, according to experts, laid the foundation for broader cooperation.
— Now Russia and the United States have more in common than Washington and Brussels or Washington and Kiev. The leaders could discuss not only the Ukrainian settlement, but also guarantees of Russia's security," Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia.
However, risks remain. According to Svetlana Savranskaya, director of Russian programs at the National Security Archive at George Washington University, the US administration may sharply toughen its position if negotiations drag on. According to her, Donald Trump looks at the end of the conflict as a promise that he must fulfill in order to become a recognized peacemaker. For Vladimir Putin, the settlement is part of a global restructuring of the European security system, which is still difficult to achieve without the participation of Europe and Ukraine.
Vladimir Brovkin, an American historian and former lecturer at Harvard University, sees an economic background in the rapprochement between Moscow and Washington.
— Russia is a key link in world oil prices. Trump needs them because they include energy prices. When there is cheap energy, it will be profitable to produce in the USA. At first, he threatened to impose sanctions against the Russian energy industry, but then smart people told him that he would achieve nothing with this. If Trump really wants affordable energy prices, he needs to negotiate with Russia, restore Nord Streams, and lift sanctions. Then global oil prices will go down and businesses will have another incentive to return to the United States," he told Izvestia.
The role of Ukraine and Europe in conflict resolution
The key issue of conflict resolution is Kiev's ability to negotiate. The Ukrainian side, despite statements about its readiness for dialogue, demonstrates ambivalence. On the one hand, the enemy participates in prisoner exchanges, on the other, it continues attacks, questioning its reliability as a partner. "Ukraine will need to either accept or reject Russian conditions. Or the Americans will have to put pressure on her," Konstantin Blokhin believes.
The European Union, while formally supporting Kiev, also found itself in a difficult position. On the one hand, the EU continues its bellicose rhetoric, increasing military and technical assistance to Ukraine and developing plans for the rearmament of the community. Thus, the association intends to consider providing military assistance to Kiev in the amount of € 5 billion. On the other hand, the dialogue between Moscow and Washington strengthens the positions of those EU countries that advocate a peaceful settlement of the conflict. So, on March 20, Hungary again blocked the final document of the EU summit on Ukraine. She did the same following an emergency EU summit on March 6. Budapest, in particular, disagreed with the principle of "achieving peace through force." The European Union has attached to the final document a separate text with the support of Ukraine, signed by 26 states.
With its belligerent rhetoric and active positioning of itself as Ukraine's main partner, Brussels is trying to sit at the negotiating table, says Sergey Shein, senior researcher at the Central Research Institute of Higher School of Economics.
— At the same time, European leaders always applaud Trump on the shoulder after the next small progress, and this fact suggests that the EU will gladly accept the agreements that will be reached. In principle, he will support any parameters of a peaceful settlement, as long as he participates in it himself. Because they don't have the resources yet to challenge what will be achieved through the United States," Sergei Shein told Izvestia.
Meanwhile, European leaders, including Emmanuel Macron, are exacerbating tensions. The French leader's statements about a "nuclear umbrella" for Europe provoked a sharp reaction from Moscow. "Macron's rattling of nuclear weapons poses a threat to the entire world community," said Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of the Russian Security Council.
However, Europe's real influence is limited: it will take 5-10 years to create a defense union, and the EU is unlikely to finance the post-conflict reconstruction of Ukraine without the United States, Sergei Shein believes. He added that in the future, the role of the European Union in the settlement will be more economic.
However, the path to compromise remains thorny. Even if the negotiations in Riyadh are successful, the American side will wait for their outcome to be accepted by Ukraine, whose ability to fulfill its obligations remains questionable. But time is working against everyone.: The protracted conflict threatens a new escalation, and Europe, torn between principles and reality, risks remaining on the sidelines of history.
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