Caution, optimism: can we expect a breakthrough from the March talks between Russia and the United States

Russia and the United States are preparing for a new meeting in Saudi Arabia, which may take place as early as March 23 in Jeddah. The key topic of the meeting will be the discussion of the details of a partial ceasefire in Ukraine. At the same time, the parties are still far from compromises, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. On March 19, Donald Trump spoke by phone with Vladimir Zelensky and told him about the agreements reached with Vladimir Putin the day before. The day before, the Ukrainian president had agreed to an initiative to stop mutual attacks on energy infrastructure, while Kiev had already attacked a Russian facility. And this is despite the fact that immediately after the end of the conversation with Trump, Putin ordered the military not to strike at Ukraine's energy sector. How the parties have progressed on the issue of peaceful settlement is described in the Izvestia article.

Russia and the United States launch the process of peaceful settlement in Ukraine

The telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, which took place on March 18 and lasted about two hours, was perhaps a turning point in the Ukrainian conflict. The leaders agreed to launch the negotiation process immediately. Russia supported the US proposal on mutual refusal of the parties from strikes on energy infrastructure facilities for 30 days. Moscow took action immediately: immediately after the conversation, the Russian leader ordered the Russian Armed Forces to stop attacks on Ukraine's energy sector. However, Kiev, according to the Russian Defense Ministry, attacked an oil transshipment facility in the Kuban with three drones within a few hours, which the Kremlin called "sabotage of agreements."

Photo: RIA Novosti/Alexander Kazakov

Russia and the United States have also agreed to hold a new round of negotiations, which may take place as early as March 23 in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The American delegation is expected to be represented by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, as well as National Security Adviser to the President Michael Waltz. It is not yet clear who will be at the negotiating table from Russia. Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: Russia and the United States will agree on the exact dates of the next contacts and the composition of the negotiators on March 19 and 20. The State Department clarified that the new round of negotiations between Russia and the United States on Ukraine will not take place at the ministerial level.

Moscow's key conditions remain unchanged. According to the Kremlin, "a complete cessation of foreign military assistance and the transfer of intelligence to Kiev" is a prerequisite for a diplomatic resolution of the conflict. Putin also conveyed to Trump information about the prisoner exchange (175 for 175) and the transfer of 23 seriously wounded Ukrainian soldiers as a gesture of goodwill. As planned, the exchange took place on March 19. But despite the progress that has been made, the settlement work has only just begun.

"There are several difficulties in Ukraine at once: the constitution, which prohibits any territorial changes, the ban on negotiations with Russia, and the uncertainty of who to talk to is a matter of Zelensky's legitimacy," said Sergei Shoigu, Secretary of the Russian Security Council.

The US response is now positive and pragmatic. Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, said that the administration is "connecting the State Department, the Pentagon and the CIA to contacts with Russia," and an easing of anti-Russian sanctions may follow a cease-fire. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz clarified that technical groups will meet in the coming days in Riyadh to "implement the partial truce that Trump has secured from Russia." At the same time, the White House confirmed that it would continue to transmit "defensive intelligence" to Kiev, and Trump told Zelensky that the United States was ready to "help manage electric and nuclear power plants." Moreover, the American leader actually suggested that Ukraine give up control of these facilities to the United States. As well as the potential conclusion of a deal on rare earths, this will seriously affect the sovereignty of the country.

What Trump conveyed to Zelensky

At the same time, the problems with Kiev's ability to negotiate are becoming more and more obvious. Despite Zelensky's statements about his readiness to stop attacks on Russian energy facilities, the attack on Kuban shows that Kiev either does not control armed groups or deliberately violates agreements.

The territorial issue remains the most pressing, and it is not clear what Ukraine is willing to do to achieve peace. Thus, Vladimir Zelensky called the abandonment of the former territories "red lines." In addition, the Ukrainian side has repeatedly repeated that it intends not to de jure recognize the new regions for Russia. Cline Preston, an American lawyer on international law, believes that compromises are hardly possible at the current stage. The position of US allies in Europe, such as the United Kingdom, may become a serious obstacle to peace.

— America has definitely agreed that Ukraine will not be a member of NATO. This will not be a problem in further negotiations. There may be problems in general around its neutrality and the number of troops," he told Izvestia. — Do not forget that London and Kiev signed a centennial cooperation agreement in January, and the military sphere is affected there, including the issue of the deployment of the British fleet in the ports of Odessa and Nikolaev. Britain is once again becoming a big problem on the way to a settlement. I highly doubt a positive outcome in the near future, but I remain cautiously optimistic.

The situation around the Zaporizhia NPP remains tense. Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, believes that this is where Russia will have to go through many more serious tests.

— Kiev will not allow nuclear power plants to operate outside of Ukraine, as Zelensky himself said. Therefore, attempts to fire at power transmission lines — energy infrastructure facilities - are not excluded. Any such attack can be regarded as a disruption by Ukraine of the 30-day "partial truce", since according to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, the NPP is located on Russian soil. For Kiev, a nuclear power plant connected to the Russian energy system is turning into a living target," Tigran Meloyan told Izvestia.

Although the telephone conversation between Putin and Trump became one of the longest in the history of U.S. negotiations, rapid progress by the parties in a peaceful settlement is unlikely, says Svetlana Savranskaya, director of Russian programs at the National Security Archive at George Washington University.

— It seems that the dialogue did not meet the expectations of the American president and his entourage. Instead of an agreement on ways to end the conflict or cease all hostilities for 30 days, we see that the parties have reached only a partial decision to stop attacks on energy infrastructure and hostilities at sea. There was no breakthrough. From the rather brief official reports, it can be concluded that Trump and Putin did not find agreement on the most sensitive issues, such as the issue of territorial demarcation and Western peacekeepers in Ukraine," the expert told Izvestia.

On March 19, Trump called Zelensky and told him about the progress of negotiations with the Russian side. The duration of the telephone conversation was noticeably more modest — about an hour. The American leader said that this conversation was necessary to bring the positions of Moscow and Kiev closer. Trump intends to achieve an end to the conflict in Ukraine "once and for all," the White House said after a conversation between the American and Ukrainian presidents. They also noted that Putin and Trump agreed in the conversation.: The Ukrainian conflict must end in "long-term peace."

It is worth noting that the Ukrainian settlement is just one of the topics that Russia and the United States are discussing. The establishment of bilateral relations remains an important aspect. According to the Kremlin, the presidents understand each other well, they have mutual trust, and they intend to gradually move towards normalization of interaction. The economy and trade remain the key areas. So, in an interview with Fox television channel, Donald Trump noted that Russia has valuable natural resources, including the world's largest deposits of rare earth metals, which are of interest to Washington. Vladimir Putin said earlier that Russia was ready to offer the United States cooperation in this area.