Paris fortune: is France's new prime minister in danger of imminent resignation?
It will be difficult for France's new Prime Minister Francois Bayre to avoid the risk of a vote of no confidence in a parliament dominated by the extreme right and left, experts interviewed by Izvestiya said. On December 13, after much hesitation, President Emmanuel Macron appointed a centrist to the post of the head of the Cabinet. Francois Bayrou faces a difficult task - to pass the budget for 2025 through the parliament. This attempt has already cost Michel Barnier the prime ministerial chair. About the new head of government of the Fifth Republic and the course he may choose in domestic and foreign policy - in the material "Izvestia".
Macron appointed a new Prime Minister
A week after his address to the nation, in which Emmanuel Macron promised to appoint a new minister "in the coming days," the French President finally made his choice. On December 13, the Elysee Palace announced that Francois Bayrou, leader of the centrist "Democratic Movement," was the new head of government.
In his first speech as prime minister, François Bayrou said that he realized "the complexity of the task before him" and "that it is necessary to find a path that will unite people rather than divide them."
French Prime Minister François Bayrou
The 73-year-old centrist, described by French media as Macron's "historic ally," has extensive experience in politics. In the 1990s, he served as minister of national education under presidents François Mitterrand and Jacques Chirac. Then in 2017, under Macron, he was given the portfolio of Minister of Justice, although he was forced by a corruption scandal to leave the post a month after his appointment. From 2020, he was mayor of Pau, a city in southeastern France. Bayrou also ran for president in the 2002, 2007 and 2012 presidential elections.
His appointment was met with mixed reviews in the opposition camp. Socialists from France Unconquered, part of the New Popular Front coalition, promised Bayrou a vote of no confidence. Their coalition neighbors from the French Communist Party have also threatened a vote of no confidence if Bayrou, like his predecessor, wants to use Article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows the adoption of the 2025 social security budget bypassing the lower house of parliament. For its part, the far-right National Rally has ruled out a new vote of no confidence for the time being.
Be that as it may, if one ministerial source quoted by French media is to be believed, the meeting between Macron and Bayrou, which took place on December 13 just before his appointment, took place in a rather tense atmosphere.
French President Emmanuel Macron
In a conversation with Izvestia, Francois Asselino, head of the People's Republican Union party, noted that Macron apparently wanted to see Roland Lecure, a member of the Presidential Renaissance party, as head of the cabinet, but was forced to abandon the idea after Laurent Vauquier, leader of the Right Republican parliamentary faction, threatened a vote of no confidence.
- One gets the feeling that this is the first time Macron has had something imposed on him. So it is quite possible that Bayrou will take a tougher stance on Macron than Barnier. Bayrou, it seems to me, is also more cunning politically than Barnier. I think he will appoint ministers with more political weight than those appointed by the previous head of government, France is on the brink of disaster, so you need a government that can impose its political course. However, there is such chaos in the national assembly that it will be difficult for Bayrou and his government to avoid the risk of a new vote of no confidence," said François Asselino.
Crisis in France
Recall that the previous Prime Minister resigned after the French national assembly approved a vote of no confidence in him by a majority of votes. The reason that prompted the deputies to resort to such an extreme measure was Michel Barnier's decision to use Article 49.3 of the Constitution to adopt the social security budget for the next year bypassing the lower house of parliament. The same article authorizes Parliament to use a vote of no confidence as the only way to limit the arbitrariness of the executive.
Although in previous years Emmanuel Macron has repeatedly resorted to this article to pass unpopular laws, the opposition failed to approve votes of no-confidence because it did not have enough votes. But after the early parliamentary elections initiated by Macron himself, the forces of his opponents became much stronger. Moreover, on December 4, the far-right Rassemblement Nationale supported its ideological opponents - the New Popular Front coalition of socialists - in the vote of no confidence. It was these forces that had long blocked Barnier's budget. As a result, for the first time since 1962, the national assembly sent the French government into resignation.
The budget proposed by Barnier envisioned austerity measures to cut public spending by €60 billion next year. The ultimate goal was to save €110 billion over the next few years to comply with EU budget rules. With the state budget deficit up 0.6% year-on-year to 6.1% of GDP, France is now in a worse financial position than Spain, Italy and Greece. According to forecasts, the country's domestic debt is expected to reach approximately €3.3 trillion by the end of the year and will be equal to 115% of GDP, compared to 110.7% at the end of the first quarter of this year.
Against this background, strikes and protests are not subsiding in the country. Only on December 12, on the initiative of the largest French trade union association "General Confederation of Labor" (CGT), strikes against mass layoffs took place in the republic. Thus, CGT estimated that about 300 thousand jobs are under the threat of liquidation. The impending layoffs have already been announced by such large groups as Auchan, Michelin and Valéo. For example, Michelin explains the situation by a sharp decline in sales of truck tires in Europe, which, in turn, is due to increased competition from Asia. Another reason the company calls the decline in competitiveness of Europe.
What will be the foreign policy of France under Bayrou
In such a difficult socio-economic situation, Bayrou will still continue the course taken by Barnier to reduce social payments and gradually increase taxes, Alexei Chikhachev, a senior lecturer at the Department of European Studies of St. Petersburg State University, an expert of RSMD and Valdai Club, told Izvestia. However, it is possible that the new prime minister will also try to resign.
- Globally, the balance of forces on the French political scene has not changed. The parliament remains divided into three parts. Bayrou is likely to try to put together some unstable coalition of centrists and moderate leftists. His difference with Barnier is that he relied on centrists and the center-right and on the certain neutrality of Marine Le Pen," he said. - Bayrou is a more palatable figure for the left, because back in 2012 he showed himself positively in their eyes when he suggested that voters vote for Francois Hollande in the second round rather than Nicolas Sarkozy. But he is unlikely to win an absolute majority in parliament, relying only on centrists and moderate leftists. And, therefore, the sword of Damocles will hang over him in the same way, and, quite possibly, in a few months the issue of forming a new cabinet will again be on the agenda.
In the expert's opinion, the extreme right will take a wait-and-see attitude, just like in the case of Michel Barnier.
- The right-wing's favor will again be a bargaining chip. Historically, François Bayrou is not a figure who can maintain a dialog with the extreme right for a long time. After all, the differences between them are too great," he emphasized.
As for foreign policy, it is unlikely to change, given that it has always been the prerogative of the president, not the government. As recent weeks show, against the backdrop of the worsening crisis in France, Macron has begun to position himself as an active negotiator on Ukraine. But he is largely driven by a desire to justify himself for failures in domestic politics. Therefore, the head of the Fifth Republic will not change the country's foreign policy course in order not to lose face.
- François Bayrou is an absolutely systematic person, oriented towards the European Union and NATO. Therefore, we should not expect any shifts here," confirms Alexei Chikhachev.
For his part, Francois Asselino did not rule out that Bayrou could put a more experienced politician than Jean-Noël Barrot in the post of foreign minister. However, again, this will not change France's foreign policy. The analyst notes that Bayrou is a politician without convictions who will go with the flow. If Donald Trump announces a cease-fire in Ukraine, Bayrou will not insist otherwise, he concluded.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
