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- Premiers over Paris: what to expect from Macron on the resignation of the French government
Premiers over Paris: what to expect from Macron on the resignation of the French government
The French parliament may vote for a vote of no confidence in the government for the first time since 1962 after Prime Minister Michel Barnier decided to approve the social security budget bypassing the National Assembly. Right-wing and left-wing parties separately have already initiated the procedure. A debate in parliament on the issue is expected on Wednesday afternoon. "National Union" of Marine Le Pen has declared its readiness to support the initiative of the left on a vote of no confidence. The expert community notes that the proposed budget is quite consistent with the country's objectives to overcome the economic crisis, but the opposition prioritizes the interests of its electorate. However, the French president, even against the background of the political crisis, which is certainly connected with the conflict in Ukraine, does not want to change his foreign policy.
Vote of no confidence in the French government
The government of Michel Barnier is threatened with resignation after the Socialists from the "New Popular Front" and the right-wingers from the "National Union" put forward a vote of no confidence in him (in fact, we are talking about two votes). The government, in particular, was unable to reach an agreement with the opposition on some articles of the social insurance budget and, as a result, took the risk of using Article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows the approval of a law bypassing the lower house of parliament. According to the Constitution, the only way to prevent the adoption of a law in such a case remains a vote of no confidence.
The last time a vote of no confidence was successfully passed against the government of Georges Pompidou was in 1962. However, the resignation was rejected by President Charles de Gaulle, who decided to dissolve the National Assembly. Since then, attempts to pass a vote of no confidence in the government have been made more than once, but none of them succeeded due to the lack of the necessary number of votes. Now, after the dissolution of the National Assembly and the parliamentary elections in July 2024, for the first time in a long time the opposition forces can agree and speak with one voice.
Thus, the "National Union" has already confirmed that it will support the Socialists' proposal for a vote of no confidence. In this case, 333 votes will be collected, while the necessary threshold is 288. Despite their ideological opposites, both the right and left camps are categorically opposed to a number of budgetary measures. The party currently led by Jordaan Bardella, for example, believes that the new budget will hit the purchasing power of the French. It opposes an increase in electricity taxes, as well as the recalculation of pensions. According to Barnier's plan, these measures should have brought in a total of about €6 billion to the state budget. In turn, the leftists are dissatisfied with the fact that Barnier refused to tax the incomes of the super-rich people. They are also calling for an increase in public spending - in particular to offset inflation, improve public services and support the ecological transition.
It is worth noting, however, that according to a poll published on December 2, purchasing power remains the number one issue for the French (38%), ahead of environmental protection (23%) and crime rates (22%). At the same time, France is experiencing a serious economic crisis. The state budget deficit in 2024 will amount to 6.1% of GDP. The country's domestic debt is projected to reach approximately €3.3 trillion by the end of the year and will be equal to 115% of GDP, compared to 110.7% at the end of the first quarter of this year.
The crisis in Ukraine has of course also been a factor that is exacerbating the economic situation in the country. The rise in energy prices due to the rejection of Russian resources has also led to an increase in food prices. Let's remind, already in March 2022 the Bank of France stated the increase of inflation and decrease of purchasing power.
Given the critical state of the French economy, its low growth rate, social payments, in particular high pensions and unemployment benefits are especially tangible for the country's budget, so the measures proposed by the Barnier government look quite logical, Alexei Chikhachev, a senior lecturer at the Department of European Studies of St. Petersburg State University, an expert of RIAC and Valdai Club, told Izvestia.
- The conflict in Ukraine, of course, played its role, but the problems are structural in nature and were accumulated long before Emmanuel Macron. These are precisely the costs of the French model of the social state, which was formed after World War II and became extremely cumbersome. This model frankly lacks flexibility in modern conditions and does not allow the state to grow dynamically. At the same time, it is impossible to sacrifice these social achievements, generous payments due to the fact that citizens are simply already accustomed to this level of social security," he said.
In his opinion, the opposition is well aware that the proposed measures may have a beneficial effect on the country's economy and public finances, but it puts the interests of its own electorate first. "Le Pen's party positions itself as a defender of the rights of the humiliated and insulted, as a defender of the little man in France. No wonder they are in favor of preserving the existing social security system," the expert added.
Who can lead the French government
Be that as it may, the consideration of two votes of no confidence in the Barnier government, put forward by the New Popular Front and the National Union, will begin on December 4 at 18:00 Moscow time. If we talk about possible scenarios, it is unlikely that Macron will follow the example of Charles de Gaulle, given that he has already dissolved the National Assembly this year.
In any case, the resignation of Michel Barnier will be a new round of political crisis in France, given how long it took the president of the Fifth Republic to agree on the current prime minister. It is possible that Macron will try to form a so-called technical government headed by a neutral and non-politicized figure, as was the case, for example, in Italy in 2021, when Mario Drage, chairman of the Bank of Italy, became prime minister.
Michel Barnier
French political culture is not characterized by compromise solutions, Sergei Fedorov, a leading researcher at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, reminded Izvestia.
- If Macron goes along with the extreme left and appoints former Prime Minister Bernard Kasnev, whose candidacy has already been considered, as head of government, even if he is supported by the moderate left, he will be rejected by the extreme right of Le Pen's party. France is entering a period of political instability, and many politicians, even moderate ones, are already talking about the possibility of Macron's early resignation, although legally it would be very difficult to do so," the expert added.
It was Kasnev's candidacy as the new prime minister that was discussed in the president's entourage, French media wrote earlier. He was seen as a figure who could satisfy not only the ruling circles, but also the opposition. The candidates of the current Minister of Defense Sebastien Lecornu and the head of the Interior Ministry Bruno Retayo are also considered.
What to expect from Macron in the coming months
It is noteworthy that in such a situation Emmanuel Macron prefers to pretend that nothing is happening. Thus, the President did not cancel the planned visit to Saudi Arabia. However, it should be noted that in fact the French leader has lost the levers of control of the country, because, according to the results of the summer elections, his party was in a minority in the parliament.
In this situation, the conflict in Ukraine even plays into Macron's hands. Against the backdrop of the internal crisis, Paris is trying to show that France retains an important role on the world stage. Thus, in mid-November, after much hesitation, the French authorities gave Kiev permission to use long-range missiles to strike Russian territory. Moreover, Paris has again allowed Western troops to be sent to Ukraine - it was Macron who first raised this topic in February this year.
He continues to turn a blind eye to the problems of the French, preferring to spend money on Ukraine, says French political analyst Nicolas Mirkovic in a conversation with Izvestia.
- France has allocated €2 billion in military aid to Ukraine this year, but Macron can't find money to help farmers who have taken to the streets again, can't find money for the collapsing national education and health care systems," he said.
According to the political analyst, the interests of the people are in Macron's last place. By the way, according to the poll of November 28, 68% of the country's residents are against direct intervention of France in the conflict. In addition, on December 3, cab drivers held a demonstration near the House of Invalids in the historic center of Paris against the deterioration of working conditions. More than 500 cab cars from different regions of France took part in the action.
Alexei Chikhachev believes that Macron will continue to try to distract people's attention from what is happening inside the country with various foreign policy statements:
- It is worth recognizing that such tactics did not work very well this year, and most likely they will not work next year either, because for the French, according to all polls, domestic policy has always been of paramount importance.
Foreign policy, however, has always been the prerogative of the president, not the government. Given Macron's previous bellicose statements, a sharp change of foreign policy course, especially with regard to Ukraine, is hardly possible, because the leader of the Fifth Republic is afraid of losing face.
Macron has said that he does not intend to resign in the event of a vote of no confidence in the French government.
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