Wealthy neighbor: can China get involved in the conflict between India and Pakistan
China and India maintain mutual territorial claims, which could serve as the basis for future escalations, experts interviewed by Izvestia said. Nevertheless, Beijing is not interested in seizing part of Kashmir amid increasing tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad after the terrorist attack in Pahalgam. The war between India and Pakistan may start in the next 24 hours, Islamabad says. For a week, the sides have been accusing each other of shelling. What role China can play in the Indian-Pakistani conflict is described in the Izvestia article.
Escalation of the Indo-Pakistani conflict
The conflict between India and Pakistan continues unabated. The shootings on the line of control have not stopped for several days. On the night of April 29-30, India reiterated the violation of the ceasefire by the Pakistani military. According to a representative of the Indian Ministry of Defense, Pakistan opened fire in front of the sectors of Naushera, Sunderbani and Akhnur.
Pakistani Information Minister Attaullah Tarar, in turn, said that India intends to attack the country in the next 24-36 hours. "Any act of aggression will be met with a decisive response. India will bear full responsibility for any serious consequences in the region," the minister said. Pakistan denies India's accusations of involvement in the preparation of the terrorist attack in Pahalgam. Tarar noted that Islamabad is ready to cooperate with a reliable, transparent and independent investigation of what happened in Kashmir.
Meanwhile, on April 30, it became known that India was closing its airspace to Pakistan-bound aircraft, including military aircraft, from April 30 to May 23.
Recall that India and Pakistan were on the verge of an armed clash after the terrorist attack that took place on April 22 in the disputed region of Jammu and Kashmir, in the Baysaran Valley. The terrorists opened fire on civilians and a group of tourists. As a result of the attack, more than two dozen people were killed and many injured. On April 25, Pakistani Defense Minister Khawaja Asif announced on Sky News that his country was ready for a full-scale war with India, promising a "symmetrical response" in the event of an attack.
It is interesting that, for example, in Mumbai, the most noisy metropolis in India, the atmosphere, despite the political tensions, is quite calm. Of course, the city, combining the street hustle of the East and at the same time the strict and majestic architecture of the British colonial period, also brought together a wide variety of representatives of Indian society. But at the same time, many people have similar opinions about the possibility of hostilities between India and Pakistan: there will be no war.
"We're not worried, really. We are very well aware of India's capabilities. We have a powerful state and a strong leadership. We have Modi. He is a world leader. We are much more worried about possible terrorist attacks. That's why we know perfectly well that we are more than capable of dealing with this whole situation because we are Indians," said local men at the India Gate in Mumbai.
Another couple of local residents are also convinced that there should not be and will not be a war: "This is primarily a political moment."
Indeed, India's military power is almost twice as large as Pakistan's, and in almost all respects. According to the Global Firepower Index 2025, India today ranks fourth among 145 countries, while Pakistan ranks 12th. In the context of conventional weapons, Islamabad is ahead only in self-propelled artillery, but given India's preponderance in at least the number of soldiers, Air Force and ground forces, this is not a tangible advantage.
At the same time, there is one significant category in which Pakistan may well compete: both countries have almost the same number of nuclear warheads — more than 300 weapons between them.
On Indian television, by the way, they are trying not to escalate hysteria, shifting the focus to the country's domestic policy, in particular on the reforms of Narendra Modi.
Can China get part of Kashmir
Meanwhile, the international community is monitoring the situation. China, which borders Kashmir, pays special attention to it. By the way, China has claimed part of Kashmir's lands since 1962, since the end of the Sino—Indian war, which began over a dispute between the two countries over the border between Tibet and the former lands of Great Britain. Despite China's rapprochement with both sides, Beijing has always supported Pakistan in the Kashmir conflict. Earlier, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said that "China stands for an impartial investigation as soon as possible, the conflict does not meet the fundamental interests of India and Pakistan and does not contribute to regional peace and stability."
In the current situation, China is trying to remain neutral. The prospect of his participation in the military confrontation between India and Pakistan seems negligible, says Peter Topychkanov, head of the New challenges sector in South and Southeast Asia at the IMEMO of the Russian Academy of Sciences.
— China does not have any agreements with Pakistan on mutual assistance in the event of an armed conflict involving the latter. India is one of China's main economic partners. In addition, both countries are part of the SCO security space, which China, together with Russia and the Central Asian states, has invested so much effort in creating. Because of these three conditions, China will do everything to, firstly, help India and Pakistan prevent escalation and, secondly, if escalation does occur, help India and Pakistan return the dispute to a diplomatic dimension," he told Izvestia.
Beijing has two key interests in this part of the world. Thus, almost the entire border remains uncoordinated between China and India, which has the status of a line of actual control, which means that they have mutual territorial claims that can serve as the basis for future escalations, the analyst notes. Unlike India, Pakistan has coordinated the entire border with China, which allowed the latter to build large-scale plans for a transport corridor from Western China to the Pakistani port of Gwadar.
— Although this corridor is currently virtually inactive, it is important for China and its western borders in the future. However, the development of infrastructure projects is possible if India and Pakistan do not conflict, and terrorist activity declines. Neither the first nor the second condition is feasible in the foreseeable future," said Petr Topychkanov.
Despite Beijing's official position, which is to maintain peace in the region, in the event of an escalation of the conflict, China can provide support to Pakistan, given their long-standing allied relations and close investment cooperation, believes Nikolai Marchenko, Sinologist, director of the Eurasian Youth Projects NGO.
— Since the transport and logistics infrastructure of this corridor runs through the lands of Kashmir, China is interested in the stable and sustainable development of the region. Being a neighbor of Pakistan and India, it is able to act as one of the mediators in the settlement of a possible conflict. However, this may cause significant opposition to India, with which China has a number of disagreements, including territorial ones," he said in an interview with Izvestia.
According to Natalia Zamaraeva, a senior researcher at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, it is too early to call the escalation between India and Pakistan a full-fledged military conflict. Therefore, it is also premature to talk about China's involvement in it.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
