Broad test: Putin announces three-day truce in Ukraine by May 9th

Vladimir Putin announced a three-day truce during the celebration of the 80th anniversary of the Victory. From zero hours on May 8 to zero hours on May 11, the Russian side will stop all hostilities. Moscow called on Kiev to follow this example. In case of violations, the Russian Federation will give an adequate and effective response, the Kremlin warned. Russia has also indicated its readiness to negotiate with Ukraine without preconditions. The previous Easter truce was violated by the Ukrainian side 4,9 thousand times. The day before, Donald Trump expressed doubts about Russia's readiness to resolve the conflict. A truce may demonstrate to Washington that Kiev is incapable of negotiating, experts say. How the next cease—fire will affect the peaceful settlement is in the Izvestia article.

Three—day truce - when will it take effect

For humanitarian reasons, the Russian President decided to establish a truce during the Victory Day celebrations. For three days, from May 8 to May 11, the Russian Armed Forces stopped all military operations. Moscow believes that Kiev should act in a mirror manner. Russia will provide an adequate and effective response in case of recorded violations of the truce by the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the Kremlin stressed. Putin's decision is a humanitarian gesture, given the importance of the holiday and the reluctance to turn it into another day of conflict, says Andrei Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai Club.

— But perhaps this is also a signal to the American side, a reaction to the critical statements made by the US president the day before. It is clear that you should not quarrel with Donald Trump. Plus, in case of regular non-compliance with the truce by Kiev, it is possible to show evidence of the Ukrainian side's inability to negotiate, that without concrete pressure on it from the United States, it is quite difficult to count on the fulfillment of such agreements. In this case, the ball will be on the other side of the field," he told Izvestia.

— I think that President Putin's decision was unexpected for "partners", "opponents" and enemies. In fact, the ideological heirs of those who were defeated, accepting the truce, thereby celebrate with the winners. It's a paradoxical situation. I think that we are no longer talking about "pluses": we are talking about reliability and sanity. We're even talking about the fact that Russia is quite consistent," Mikhail Mironyuk, associate professor at the Department of Politics and Management at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, said in an interview with Izvestia.

The decision made in the Kremlin was another attempt by Moscow to outline its position as a party seeking to de-escalate and resolve the conflict. However, the context of previous events makes us skeptical about the prospects for a new truce. The previous one was announced by the Russian leader on the eve of Easter — from 18:00 on April 19 to 00:00 on April 21. In accordance with the order, all groups of the Russian Armed Forces strictly observed the ceasefire regime at that time and remained on previously occupied borders and positions.

According to the Ministry of Defense, during the Easter truce, Ukrainian formations conducted artillery fire and drone strikes against positions of Russian troops and civilian targets in the border areas of the Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk regions and Crimea.

In total, the Russian military recorded 4,9 thousand violations of the ceasefire. The enemy used 90 aircraft-type drones, including eight outside the zone of the special military operation, all of them were destroyed. The Ukrainian Armed Forces carried out 1,404 artillery, MLRS and mortar attacks, as well as 3,316 attacks using quadrocopters on positions of Russian troops, the Defense Ministry estimated. At the same time, the ministry noted that, in general, during the period of the truce in the daytime, the intensity of fire and fighting by the Armed Forces of Ukraine was significantly reduced along the entire front line.

Such statistics show a pattern of systematic sabotage by Kiev of previous agreements. Russia, which has a strategic initiative, can itself appoint a truce and cancel it, military expert Alexei Leonkov believes.

— At the same time, bearing full responsibility for what provocations may be on the part of Ukraine. And all this is happening in a public space: the whole world knows that Russia will not conduct military operations. And the next rebuffs of Zelensky, who is trying to pretend to be a peacemaker, will be clearly visible. Provocations, shelling — information about all this will be available to everyone," Leonkov told Izvestia.

After the Easter truce, many do not consider Zelensky to be someone who seeks peace, the expert added.

— He was playing a comedy, saying that "aggressive" Russia is doing everything to prevent peace. And now it turns out exactly the opposite: the Russian Federation shows that it is striving for a settlement, and the Easter truce and the truce on the anniversary of the Victory are examples," said Alexei Leonkov.

In his opinion, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are likely to stage provocations: "perhaps they will prepare a lot of drones, perhaps they will try to disrupt the celebrations in Moscow, they can go all out."

— They have nothing to lose: if the fighting ends, everyone will go to the dock if they cannot escape. Therefore, it would be surprising if the Ukrainian side would have done something positive during the truce in honor of the 80th anniversary of the Victory: it did not shoot or launch drones. But all this will be seen by all countries," the expert concluded.

The Ukrainian reaction to Moscow's initiative turned out to be ambivalent. On the one hand, Kiev formally welcomed the idea of a cease-fire, but immediately put forward a counterproposal: "Why wait until May 8? If the fire can be stopped now and from any date for 30 days, it means that this is real, and not just for a parade," said Andrei Sibiga, the country's foreign minister. However, such a demarche looks more like an attempt to seize the initiative than a real willingness to engage in dialogue. Russia continues a special military operation, but is ready to start negotiations with Kiev without preconditions. Only these negotiations should be aimed at eliminating the root causes of the crisis. At the same time, the Kremlin does not hide the fact that they question the sincerity of Kiev.

Prospects for a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict

The announced truce is part of a complex mosaic where the United States remains an important player. Donald Trump, whose relations with Kiev are constantly changing, said Zelensky was ready to abandon his claims to Crimea. "The issue of Crimea's ownership has been finally resolved. Russia does not negotiate on the integrity of its territory," Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov responded to the discussions about the fate of the peninsula. At the same time, Moscow and Washington, judging by their statements, are groping for common ground. Trump called the approaches of Russia and the United States "the right direction." Peskov confirmed: "There are many elements in the U.S. president's understanding of the situation in Ukraine that coincide with Russia's position."

However, Trump's public rhetoric has become tougher. "Putin had no reason to fire missiles at civilian areas… This makes me think that maybe he doesn't want to end the war... too many people are dying!" he wrote on the Truth Social network on April 26. White House sources speak of "growing frustration" with both Ukraine and Russia, insisting on early negotiations. At the same time, the Trump administration is actively promoting a deal on rare earths and energy resources with Kiev, which, according to American media reports, may be signed as early as this week.

Sergey Lavrov, commenting on the talks, stressed: "Russia does not discuss details in public. Zelensky is doing this." The Russian Federation also sent to the UN a list of violations by Kiev of the moratorium on attacks on energy facilities. Kiev's European allies, in turn, are seeking to turn Trump's peace initiative into a tool to strengthen Ukraine, but, according to Lavrov, "this is hardly what the US president wants." Representatives of the EU and NATO explicitly state that they will support only the agreement that will be beneficial and convenient for Kiev. At the same time, the Europeans are demanding that some points of the so-called "Trump plan" be changed. In particular, the media wrote that the EU does not agree with territorial concessions from Ukraine.

Trump and Zelensky had a very short conversation in Rome on April 26. Nevertheless, the White House called this conversation "very productive." Macron, who met with the Ukrainian leader in Italy, declared "Ukraine's readiness for an unconditional cease-fire," but Moscow is skeptical of such statements. A month in this mode may allow Kiev to rearm and regroup.

The three—day truce is not just a gesture of goodwill. This is an instrument of pressure on Kiev and a demonstration to Washington that Russia is ready for dialogue — but only on condition that the West recognizes its interests. If Ukraine breaks the silence regime, the Kremlin will get a trump card in the form of evidence of Bankova's unwillingness to make concessions and long-term peace. If the truce is respected, it will be a rare step towards detente. However, the main question is: is the United States ready to withdraw from the game, or will it continue to balance between sanctions and deals? The answer to it will determine whether the May lull will be a prologue to peace or just a pause before a new round of conflict.