They think destructively: Europe and Ukraine are disrupting Trump's new plan

Brussels and Kiev are trying to disrupt US President Donald Trump's plan to resolve the Ukrainian crisis, experts say. The United States is outraged by Zelensky's refusal to recognize the new territorial realities and Crimea as part of the Russian Federation, which is why the Americans decided not to send a high-level delegation to London for talks. Following them, due to disagreements, France, Great Britain and Germany lowered the level of participation. Trump's peace plan, which the parties were going to discuss on April 23, presupposes the recognition of Crimea and the de facto four regions within the Russian Federation. At the same time, according to media reports, Paris and London are ready to recognize the loss of part of the territory by Kiev. Meanwhile, Russia is expecting the fourth visit of Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff. Whether Washington will withdraw from the negotiations on Ukraine in the event of the collapse of this plan is in the Izvestia article.

Ukraine and Europe disagree with the US plan

A promising meeting in London dedicated to the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict turned into a diplomatic fiasco. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio canceled a trip to the British capital amid statements by Vladimir Zelensky about his categorical refusal to recognize Crimea as Russian. Following the Americans, France, Germany and the United Kingdom lowered the level of participation, turning the negotiations into technical expert consultations. The reason is the rejection by Kiev and European capitals of Donald Trump's "latest" plan, which, according to the White House, could become the basis for ending the conflict.

American diplomats were outraged not only by Ukraine's position on Crimea, but also by its desire to postpone discussion of territorial issues, focusing on a "complete cease-fire," the American media write. Sources note that Washington insists on solving all problems simultaneously, from the status of the lost territories to security guarantees. However, Kiev, according to Axios, is ready to discuss only a 30-day truce, ignoring the rest of the points of Trump's proposals. The Americans' lowering of the negotiating level from ministers to experts at the London summit is evidence that the coalition rejected Trump's plan before the summit and is preparing its own, according to Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies.

— For European leaders, Ukraine acts as a protective barrier, which they cannot abandon for a number of domestic political reasons and intend to support it until the military-political regime in Kiev falls. For Ukraine, in turn, it is important to involve the British and French troops in a direct conflict with Russia and try to win everything back, but Kiev lacks an understanding of the most important thing: in a few months it may be offered a deal with worse conditions than it is now," the expert told Izvestia.

According to documents obtained by The Telegraph, the US plan includes seven key points. The first two involve an immediate cease—fire and direct negotiations between Moscow and Kiev, which Zelensky has already accepted, according to sources. However, the third point, which requires Ukraine to refuse to join NATO (while maintaining the possibility of integration into the EU), causes sharp rejection on Bankova.

The fourth point, the de jure recognition of Crimea as Russian, has become a stumbling block. The fifth and sixth points suggest the freezing of the front line with the transfer of the Zaporizhia NPP under U.S. control and the access of American companies to Ukrainian natural resources. Finally, the seventh point paves the way for the lifting of sanctions against Russia and energy cooperation between Moscow and Washington. However, the European Union refuses to lift sanctions against Russia, according to Reuters, citing unnamed diplomats.

Vladimir Zelensky insists that negotiations with Moscow are possible only after a complete ceasefire, and membership in NATO is "Ukraine's inviolable right." "Crimea is our territory. This will not happen," he said, commenting on Trump's proposals. Ukrainian officials have said they are ready to make concessions regarding some of the ideas expressed by Trump and his team, the Financial Times writes. However, the details of these concessions remain a mystery.

According to The Telegraph, Kiev is skeptical about the chances of implementing the plan: even if Russia agrees to give up two small plots in the Kherson region, Ukraine will not recognize the loss of a significant part of the territory without security guarantees from the United States.

All this looks like dividing the country into zones of influence, says Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences.

Europe, in turn, is trapped between principles and pragmatism. France and the United Kingdom are apparently ready to recognize the loss of part of the territories by Kiev in exchange for "reliable security guarantees." However, public support for such a scenario threatens to split the EU and NATO. The European members of the bloc will have to choose between their principles and the desire not to spoil relations with Trump, Western media write.

Despite the disruption of the meeting in London, Steve Witkoff will travel to Moscow for the fourth round of talks with Vladimir Putin. "Whitkoff and Trump believe that negotiations on Ukraine are moving in the right direction," White House spokeswoman Caroline Leavitt said. A stable channel of diplomatic communication has been established between Russia and the United States — this can already be stated with confidence, said Alexey Zhuravlev, first deputy chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense.

— Representatives of our countries meet regularly, and, by the way, this usually happens before the Americans sit down at the negotiating table with the Europeans or Ukrainians, as if they agree on positions in advance. However, it is worth noting that so far the case has not progressed beyond the Easter Truce, a humanitarian action unilaterally announced by Russia. It is beneficial for the Kiev regime that the conflict lasts forever, so they will lie and dodge to the last, unless the Americans pin them to the wall and finally force them to sign at least some documents," the deputy told Izvestia.

How will the breakdown of negotiations affect the settlement

The refusal of Kiev and Europe to accept Trump's plan calls into question the future of the negotiation process. US Vice President Jay Dee Vance has already stated that Washington will "abandon mediation efforts" if the parties do not agree to the proposed terms. "We have put forward an extremely clear proposal. It's time to either say yes or the United States withdraw from this process," he said.

However, Vance's threats are more a demonstration of "emotional fatigue" than a change of strategy, says Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of political Theory at MGIMO, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia.

— The United States will not withdraw from the negotiation process in the near future for two reasons. Firstly, there is no progress in other international areas — Greenland, the Gas sector, and the trade war with China, and some clear progress will be required, at least in Ukraine. Given that Kiev is heavily dependent on American aid, it is more likely to make concessions than Denmark, the Hamas movement or China. Secondly, no one has canceled the strategic turn of US foreign policy to the Asia-Pacific region. For this, resources must be redirected from other regions, including Europe. This will become possible after the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict," Ivan Loshkarev told Izvestia.

The "last" settlement proposal is a very elegant way out of the conflict as the main "interested party". At the same time, it is an opportunity to "kick" the previous administration, which aggravated this conflict, Mikhail Mironyuk, associate professor at the HSE Department of Politics and Management, told Izvestia.

Recognizing Crimea as Russian could trigger a crisis in NATO, where Eastern European countries, including Poland, are opposed to any concessions to Moscow. "Poland will support NATO countries wishing to send troops to Ukraine, but it will not do so itself," the head of the republic's Foreign Ministry said yesterday. At the same time, Paris and Berlin, according to The Wall Street Journal, are ready to compromise, demanding only a "price increase" for Russia.

— Ukrainians are disrupting Trump's plan. Zelensky's team made it clear that they did not accept the plan (through leaks in the press) and that they were ready to publicly repeat Zelensky's "feat" at the White House, but this time in London. Hence the refusal of the United States to provide high-level representation at this meeting. The Europeans were not ready for a public failure," Mikhail Mironyuk added.

The Kremlin does not consider Washington's threats to withdraw from the negotiation process to be an ultimatum. "Moscow welcomes the mediation efforts of the United States," Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, stressing that negotiations take time. Steve Witkoff's fourth visit to Russia, which is planned in the coming days, could be a turning point. Now the American side is clearly more open to dialogue with the Russian Federation, since unlike other parties to the conflict, Russian representatives adhere to a constructive and pragmatic approach.