The burden of peace: Is Trump's plan to resolve the conflict viable
Trump's new peace plan to resolve the Ukrainian crisis is a harbinger of the US withdrawal from the conflict, experts say. Washington is working on another initiative, which the American leader is expected to present soon. According to media reports, it is considering the creation of a peacekeeping force to monitor the ceasefire — a "joint commission" with the participation of the Russian Federation, Ukraine and a third non-NATO country. Russia opposes the deployment of armed forces from any country in Ukraine. At the same time, Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff is expected in Russia again, and they are going to discuss the Ukrainian settlement in London.
Trump's plan for a Ukrainian settlement
Donald Trump intends to present details of his peace plan for Ukraine this week, which, according to sources in The New York Post, includes three key components: the deployment of European forces to monitor the ceasefire, the creation of a "resilience force" as security guarantees for Kiev, and the formation of a "joint commission" with the participation of Russia. Ukraine and a neutral third party. The latter, according to the potential document, should not join NATO in order to ensure a balance of interests. The United States, as the authors of the initiative emphasize, will remain involved in the process, but without a direct military presence.
Judging by the leaks, the plan suggests that Ukraine may agree to recognize the loss of 20% of territories, including Crimea and four new regions that became part of Russia following referendums. However, we are talking about de facto status, not de jure, which will formally allow Kiev to save face. According to an unnamed official of the Trump administration, Ukrainian representatives at the talks in Washington expressed particular concern about the territorial issue, but did not reject the proposal completely. Vladimir Zelensky said yesterday, April 22: Ukraine does not legally recognize Crimea as Russian. The head of European diplomacy, Kaya Kallas, echoed him.
President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky
Choosing a neutral party to participate in the "joint commission" may be a problem. Moscow categorically opposes the presence of NATO or EU troops in Ukraine and calls it a direct threat to its security. In particular, the Russian Foreign Ministry said: "Any foreign presence in Ukraine, regardless of the flag, signage, or declared mandates, will be considered by Russia as a threat to the security of our country and carries the risk of direct clashes between participants in such so-called missions from individual NATO members, and therefore the entire alliance with our country."
In general, UN peacekeepers should be involved in monitoring the ceasefire, said Konstantin Blokhin, a leading researcher at the Center for Security Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences.
— But we have strained relations with the organization, even though the Russian Federation is a member of the Security Council. The Chinese? The West and Trump will be against it. France and Great Britain? We will be against it. Now each country is considered within the framework of a "coalition" — who is whose ally. Plus, Russian representatives have repeatedly said that they are against any interference on earth," the expert told Izvestia.
The Easter truce, initiated by Russia, according to the American media, was a test of the parties' readiness for dialogue. According to CNN, during the day, the Ukrainian Armed Forces violated the ceasefire regime more than a thousand times (according to Russian data, over 4.9 thousand times), which confirmed Kiev's unwillingness to make concessions. "For Moscow, it was a gesture of goodwill that exposed the Ukrainian leadership and its European supporters as the main obstacle to the deal," the American TV channel commented.
How do the parties to the conflict perceive the American proposals?
Previously, Russia had a complimentary reaction to Trump's plan. The initiative of the US president to resolve the conflict in Ukraine will be reflected in Russian unified history textbooks, said Vladimir Medinsky, chairman of the Russian Military Historical Society. "The extraordinary efforts that the new American administration is making to attempt a reasonable settlement of the conflict in Ukraine and, in general, the amazing transformations in American domestic politics that we are witnessing now, they will undoubtedly end up on the pages of the textbook and the history of Russia ...", — said one of the authors of the textbook.
There was no reaction to the plan in presidential circles. Russian Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov only stated that there was no response from Kiev to Vladimir Putin's proposal to discuss non-strikes against civilian targets.
Experts see a double message in Trump's initiative. The publication of the plan may be a harbinger of the US withdrawal from the negotiation process, according to Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies.
— In its current form, neither Russia nor Ukraine will accept it. The idea of European "counteraction forces", which Moscow considers to be a direct involvement of the EU in the conflict, is particularly controversial. Perhaps Trump wants to show that Washington has done everything possible, and now he is shifting the burden to Europe," Meloyan told Izvestia.
Another scenario, according to the expert, is to check the "red lines" of the parties through media coverage. However, as Meloyan notes, this approach is unproductive.
— Discussing concessions publicly means weakening one's position. Rather, it is pressure on the negotiators, but in the case of Russia, this method will not work," he added.
Konstantin Blokhin believes that Trump's plan is an American vision, where the preservation of the Kiev regime contradicts the goals of the Russian military. Even if Ukraine agrees to the loss of territories, it will be a defeat for Zelensky.
— This is only one settlement option. If it is not accepted, the United States will wash its hands of the Ukrainian conflict. Trump will say that he did everything he could, and you Europeans, if you want to support Ukraine at your own expense, support it," Konstantin Blokhin said.
Prospects for crisis resolution
The talks in London on April 23, where the delegations of the United States, Ukraine, Great Britain and France will gather, will be a test for the viability of Trump's plan. Vladimir Zelensky declared Kiev's readiness to "move as constructively as possible," but his words contrast with a tough position on territorial integrity.
Europe, apparently, will continue to support Kiev. However, growing fatigue from the conflict and US pressure may force the EU to reconsider its approach. Reuters notes that Trump's approval rating has dropped to 42%, pushing him to demonstrate immediate diplomatic success.
Special Envoy of the President of the United States Stephen Witkoff
A key indicator will be the visit of Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow. Previous meetings with the Russian leadership, including the April 11 talks in St. Petersburg, were productive. According to Dmitry Peskov, "Russia continues contacts with the United States through various channels." One of these is the recent visit of Kirill Dmitriev, Special Representative of the President of the Russian Federation, to Washington.
Europe's position remains ambiguous. On the one hand, Paris and Berlin publicly support Kiev, on the other, they fear escalation. "The EU is trapped: financial and military aid to Ukraine is draining budgets, but to admit the failure of the Zelensky project is to suffer a geopolitical defeat," said Vladimir Brovkin, an American historian and former lecturer at Harvard University.
He believes that even the concessions offered by the United States are not enough for the Russian Federation, and there is nothing to negotiate with the regime in Kiev.
— Ukraine needs to hold fair and free elections for all political figures. They must pass under international supervision. It is impossible to negotiate with the current regime, and they have long discredited themselves. No one wants to mess with them, including the Americans. By the way, this may be one of the requirements of the Russian side. Replacing Zelensky with [ex-commander—in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery] Zaluzhny will not lead to any positive results," Vladimir Brovkin told Izvestia.
If Trump's plan is not adopted, scenarios range from freezing the conflict to a full-scale crisis. The United States is likely to significantly reduce aid to Ukraine, but it will not completely withdraw from the game — Washington will retain leverage through sanctions and diplomacy. For Russia, the key issue remains security: "Any settlement must include the demilitarization of Ukraine and guarantees of non—entry into NATO," Konstantin Blokhin recalls.
The prospects are vague, but the dialogue, although fragile, continues. As Trump said, the last meetings with Russia and Ukraine were "very good," and the details will be known "in the next three days."
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