Combat check: Kiev continues to thwart settlement attempts

The Easter truce between Russia and Ukraine ended on April 21, and the parties have not agreed on its extension. The Ukrainian Armed Forces managed to violate the ceasefire regime almost 5,000 times. Meanwhile, Washington wants Kiev to make concessions, including renouncing NATO membership. The United States is also considering recognizing Crimea as Russian. Special envoy of the American leader Steve Witkoff is expected to pay another visit to Russia this week. Meanwhile, Moscow and Washington continue to work on organizing a meeting between Putin and Trump, with Saudi Arabia remaining one of the possible venues. Switzerland offers mediation services, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of that country told Izvestia. But the Russian ambassador to the confederation, Sergei Harmonin, believes that Bern cannot become a mediator.

Prospects for a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict

The Easter truce proposed by Vladimir Putin was another attempt by Moscow to demonstrate its readiness for a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict. As the President noted, Russia has a positive attitude towards any peace initiatives, which is why it made this proposal at Easter. The Russian Federation expects Kiev to treat it the same way.

Despite the formal consent of Ukrainian leader Vladimir Zelensky, the ceasefire has been violated almost 5,000 times. At the same time, as stated by the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova, Kiev used the American HIMARS systems for the attacks. Moscow will provide "all interested parties with all data on the facts of the violation of the truce," said Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation.

At the same time, as Vladimir Putin noted, it is necessary to "analyze the experience of declaring the Easter truce" and "sort out" the proposal not to hit civilian targets. On April 20, Zelensky proposed a moratorium on attacks on civilian targets for at least 30 days. The Russian side has repeatedly pointed out that the Ukrainian Armed Forces often uses civilian facilities during military operations. In this case, they are attacked.

— Well, for example: everyone knows the attack of our Armed Forces on the congress center, in my opinion, Sumy University. Is this a civilian facility or not? Civilian. But there was an award ceremony for those who committed crimes in the Kursk region: both units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and nationalists," Vladimir Putin explained.

Washington declared its commitment to a "complete and comprehensive cease-fire." However, as noted by the American media, the administration of Donald Trump simultaneously demands concessions from Kiev, including the refusal to join the North Atlantic Alliance. "We have heard from Washington at various levels that Ukraine's membership in NATO is excluded. This is something that causes our satisfaction and corresponds to our position that Ukraine should not be a member of NATO. This would pose a threat to the Russian Federation. This is one of the root causes of the conflict," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

The American side also, according to media reports, may soon recognize Crimea as Russian and proposes to transfer the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant under the control of the United States. Washington is considering the possibility of establishing a neutral status for the territories around the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant. These conditions will allegedly be discussed at a meeting of representatives of the United States, the EU and Ukraine in London at the end of the week.

Donald Trump is now trying to get out of the conflict, says Vladimir Brovkin, an American historian and former lecturer at Harvard University.

— It distracts him from more important domestic political and economic issues. The second fact is that he will not ask Congress for new money to continue the conflict. The US is on the verge of recession and even depression if it fails to fix its problems with China soon. Trump, in my opinion, agrees to make territorial "concessions" and has already agreed to the neutral status of Ukraine. But he cannot guarantee that the Europeans will do the same, especially since he has very strained relations with European leaders, and even personal hostility towards someone," the expert explained to Izvestia.

Kiev will bring it: what can happen to Ukraine if the ceasefire is violated

The enemy continues to ignore any agreements, which is what Zelensky's entourage is counting on.

As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier, the European Union's intention to create a coalition to send troops to Ukraine indicates a desire to realize superiority, and it is not necessary to talk with Russia in such a language.

European countries such as France, Germany, and the United Kingdom continue to escalate their bellicose rhetoric. Paris and Berlin are discussing the deployment of military contingents in Ukraine, and London promises even more weapons. The EU does not have the resources to replace American aid, Brovkin believes.

"Even if Macron finds a contingent of 3,000 peacekeepers, it won't change anything on the battlefield," he added.

The expert points to the EU's budget problems: France's deficit of $40 billion and resistance in Germany to an increase in military spending.

— The only way for EU countries to increase these expenses is to borrow. They don't have money for Ukraine's defense capability," Vladimir Brovkin summed up.

How is the negotiation process between Russia and the United States progressing?

Against this background, negotiations between Moscow and Washington are continuing. The US president's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is due to arrive in Russia again this week to discuss a peaceful settlement and, possibly, a future summit between Putin and Trump. According to American media, the United States would like to hold talks in parallel with the London summit, where the positions of Kiev, the EU and Washington will be coordinated. "Both sides will start doing business with the United States of America, which is thriving, and will make a fortune," Trump wrote on a social network, expressing hope for an early deal between Russia and Ukraine.

Saudi Arabia is still being considered a potential venue for a meeting between Putin and Trump. There was talk of a possible meeting in Qatar. Switzerland also offers its services. Bern positively assesses the high-level dialogue between Russia and the United States, the country's Foreign Ministry told Izvestia.

— At the conference in Burgenstock, Switzerland began the process of establishing a comprehensive, lasting and just peace in Ukraine, which was supported by more than a hundred states and organizations. Since then, the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs has been actively engaged in consistent work and participates in various conferences (personally or in a hybrid manner). Switzerland is always ready to provide good offices and support concrete negotiations on a peaceful settlement, if the parties concerned request it," the Swiss Foreign Ministry said.

The Russian side is skeptical about Switzerland's initiatives due to its one-sided position.

— Last year's meeting in Burgenstock was quite predictably an empty PR campaign without any practical result. I would like to remind you about the context of last year's conference in Burgenstock: if the local authorities somehow tried to disguise this event as a kind of "peace summit", then the Kiev regime was frank and did not hide the true goals of this meeting at all. There were three of them: the promotion of Zelensky's "formula of peace", which is absolutely unacceptable to us, the expansion of the anti-Russian coalition at the expense of the countries of the Global South, and the presentation of a collective ultimatum to Russia. I hope that Bern has drawn the right conclusions from the situation with the failed summit in Burgenstock," Russian Ambassador to the confederation Sergey Garmonin said in an interview with Izvestia.

Switzerland has not approached Russia with a proposal to organize a meeting between Putin and Trump, the Russian ambassador noted. He stressed that among the majority of the world's countries, there are many states friendly to Russia that are actually ready to provide "good services."

— Until the official Bern changes its unfriendly course towards our country, there can be no question of any mediation role of the confederation. We see no point in acting to the detriment of Russian interests," the diplomat added. — It is possible that Bern is taking a wait-and-see attitude, monitoring the actions of all key players in the context of the Ukrainian crisis, hoping for a potential "window of opportunity" to use its mediation.

The stage of the concept: The Russian Federation and the United States are negotiating on Ukraine on a bilateral basis

Why is it unlikely to achieve a ceasefire by Easter and when is a meeting between Putin and Trump possible?

According to Vladimir Brovkin, the meeting between Putin and Trump has been postponed for the time being due to the internal, especially economic problems of the American leader.

— Trump needs some kind of success before meeting with Putin. Plus, he fears that he will again be called an "agent of the Kremlin," the expert noted.

At the same time, even removing the issue of Ukraine's membership in NATO does not guarantee a long-term solution.

"Russia needs an agreement, like with Austria, so that neutrality is spelled out in the country's constitution and recognized by the world community,— he said.

It is worth noting that for almost 100 days of his presidency, Donald Trump has not yet made a single foreign visit. At the same time, there was no talk of Trump coming to Moscow for the May 9 parade, Dmitry Peskov said. So far, the chances of a settlement depend on the willingness of Kiev, Brussels and London to compromise. But, as the experience of the Easter truce shows, dialogue remains an illusion as long as Europe continues to view Ukraine as an instrument of pressure on Russia.