The burden of awakening: consumer loans began to grow again
The issuance of consumer loans began to grow again after a prolonged decline, major credit bureaus (BCI) told Izvestia. The volume of loans issued in March increased by 15% compared to February, to 190 billion rubles. The banks confirmed the dynamics, citing seasonal factors and pent-up demand as the reasons. But it's too early to talk about a change in the lending trend, experts say. Nevertheless, the rates still remain close to the barrier — up to 35%. How the Central Bank will take into account credit activity in its decision on the key issue is in the Izvestia article.
Loans from banks in the spring of 2025
In March, banks issued consumer loans to Russians for 219 billion rubles, which is 15% more than the same indicator for February, according to data from the United Credit Bureau (OKB), reviewed by Izvestia. In total, individuals issued 1.28 million loans last month, which is only slightly higher than the February figures.
The National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI) also recorded an increase in issuance. According to their data, the number of consumer loans issued in March increased symbolically (by 0.5%) compared to February, said Alexey Volkov, NBKI Marketing Director. He stressed that prior to this, issuance fell continuously from July to December 2024.
At the same time, according to him, the volume of cash loans has been growing for the second month in a row. So, in March, this figure reached 211 billion rubles, an increase of 15% compared to February.
In large banks, Izvestia confirmed an increase in loan applications. VTB reported that the volume of consumer lending in March was 1.5 times higher than in February. Over the past month, the volume of loans issued increased by 18% compared to the previous one, Novik Bank said. In the first month of spring, the demand for cash loans significantly exceeded the February figures: the number of applications increased by almost 30%, and the volume of disbursements increased by 15%, said Vyacheslav Shalamov, head of the PSB Consumer Lending Department.
The volume of cash loans in March increased by 10% compared to February, said the director of retail products at Dom Bank.Russian Federation" by Daria Morozova.
The number of applications and disbursements for such loans increased in the first quarter, but this is more likely due to seasonality, said Andrey Afanasyev, head of the consumer lending group at Bank Saint Petersburg. However, despite the spring revival, volumes are still 20-30% lower than last year, he stressed. Average receipts have also decreased. All these are consequences of the Central Bank's restrictions on lending.
Compared to the first quarter of 2024, issuance volumes have more than halved, VTB said. This is due to the Bank of Russia's measures to curb market growth, including a high key rate, tightening macroprudential limits and surcharges.
According to the OKB, the number of loans issued decreased by 58% and the volume by 64% year—on-year. At the same time, the average amount of a cash loan decreased to 171 thousand from 198 thousand rubles a year earlier. The average term has also decreased — one year 11 months (a year ago — two years nine months). Most likely, people are now trying to borrow only in the most extreme cases, while trying to reduce their debt burden as much as possible.
Why have loans increased?
— The positive dynamics in March is explained by the seasonal activity of citizens, as well as the realization of pent-up demand against the background of continued rising prices for goods. Borrowers decided not to postpone large purchases anymore, realizing that a wait-and—see strategy could be a losing one due to persistent inflation, Vyacheslav Shalamov from PSB agrees.
The effect of lifting the Central Bank's earlier restrictions on the full cost of the loan played a significant role, added Daria Morozova from Dom.RF Bank. Now financial institutions can temporarily set higher rates. This allowed them to compensate for the risks in lending to citizens, so they began to approve loans better.
Nevertheless, in the current conditions, getting a loan is not an easy task, says Magomed Gamzaev, director of the credit department at Compare. In addition to regulatory restrictions, banks still apply strict risk policies, as well as carefully examine the client's credit history, he explained. Those borrowers who have passed all the selection stages receive consumer loans at an average of 31%.
Real rates in the cash loans segment rose above 35% in March, according to OKB data. But by the beginning of April, they had slightly decreased to 34%. Considering the reasons listed by market participants for the growth of lending, there are no worries that people are morally getting used to high rates, says Andrey Smirnov, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments.
What decision on the key rate will the Central Bank make on April 25
If we consider quantitative growth, it is still too small to talk about any kind of trend change, emphasized Alexey Volkov from NBKI. In his opinion, in the context of the regulator's strict policy of cooling the credit market, banks continue to provide loans, primarily to those borrowers whose rating and debt burden level correspond to acceptable values.
— The consumer credit market has stabilized, and in the future their issuance should not seriously fall, — the expert believes.
It's too early to talk about a change in trend, Elman Mehdiyev, the founder of the credit history verification service Kredchek, agreed. He believes that the results of one month are not indicative.
To be sure that demand for loans is recovering, it is necessary to observe the weaker months of April and May, said Andrey Smirnov from BCS World Investments. However, the Bank of Russia will certainly take these data into account in its decision on the key issue as early as next Friday, April 25.
According to the expert, the current picture for lowering the rate is contradictory. On the one hand, inflation expectations are growing in the country. But the economy is cooling down, and the ruble has strengthened strongly against other currencies. At the same time, it is possible that it will weaken in the coming months.
In these circumstances, banks are reducing deposit rates and seeking to increase their loan portfolio. From the point of view of risk management, this suggests that the market is waiting for a softening of the Central Bank's policy, Andrei Smirnov emphasized. But it's too early to count on this in April. If the upward trend in demand for loans continues for a long time, and also spreads to the mortgage and car loan segments, the Central Bank may even resort to tightening monetary policy.
However, as follows from the Izvestia consensus forecast, in the baseline scenario, the rate will remain at 21% on April 25.
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