Explosive situation: will Moscow extend the moratorium on strikes on the energy structure

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have carried out 107 strikes on Russian energy infrastructure facilities since the moratorium was imposed on March 18, according to the data of the Ministry of Defense. The ban, which was set in parallel with the discussion of the Black Sea initiative, expires on April 16. Meanwhile, Ankara is hosting a two-day meeting on security in the Black Sea, which is not attended by Russian representatives. At the same time, the Kremlin and Washington note that work towards a peaceful settlement continues, although a number of representatives of the American leadership are trying to convince Donald Trump to be tougher towards Moscow. Whether to expect an extension of the moratorium on strikes on energy and how the dialogue between the Russian Federation and the United States is progressing — in the Izvestia article.

Will Russia extend the moratorium on attacks on Ukraine's energy facilities

Since the introduction of a 30-day mutual moratorium on strikes on energy infrastructure on March 18, Ukraine has violated the agreement 107 times. Daily drone attacks, HIMARS missiles, and artillery attacks have become the norm, despite Kiev's stated commitments. Russia consistently adheres to the terms of the moratorium, while "the Ukrainian side has not fulfilled and is not fulfilling it," said Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation.

Attempts by the Ukrainian Armed Forces to disable energy facilities in Russia, including those related to transit to Europe and Kazakhstan, are systemic in nature. "The enemy used unmanned aerial vehicles that fly hundreds of kilometers. He also used HIMARS, but less often," military expert Vasily Dandykin explained to Izvestia. According to him, the Ukrainian strikes led to local de-energization of areas, but were unable to paralyze the Russian energy system due to the work of air defense.

While Kiev is trying to extend martial law and mobilization from May 9 for 90 days, the question of the fate of the moratorium remains open. The Kremlin has not yet announced its decision: Peskov said that the possibility of extending it would depend on Vladimir Putin's decision. At the same time, the president's schedule does not yet include plans for talks with Donald Trump on this topic.

Photo: RIA Novosti/Evgeny Biyatov

There are no prerequisites for extending the moratorium, except as a gesture of goodwill, according to Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies.

— There is an imitation of actions on the part of Ukraine in this direction and loud statements by the United States, but there is no main result for which everything was started. It was clear from the very beginning that the Ukrainian side would not observe the "partial truce." It was Kiev's incompetence that needed to be demonstrated to Moscow by Donald Trump. Now Russia has been given such an opportunity and a convincing amount of evidence has been collected," Tigran Meloyan told Izvestia.

Bombing plan: The Ukrainian Armed Forces have increased the number of attacks on the Russian energy infrastructure

More than 30 sites have been hit since agreements were reached on steps to resolve the conflict in Ukraine.

The expert also suggested that in the case of negotiations on a moratorium, Russia would tighten the conditions, for example, it would demand the right to respond immediately at the first violation. However, the key factor is Washington's position. If the Trump administration fails to put pressure on Zelensky, Moscow's unilateral extension of the moratorium will lose its meaning.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Konstantin Kokoshkin

The details of the moratorium on strikes by Russia and Ukraine on energy facilities were agreed upon by Moscow and Washington, including in the context of the discussion of the Black Sea initiative. Violations by Kiev are likely to also affect the prospects for its implementation due to the lack of confidence in Ukraine's compliance with the agreements. Meanwhile, Ankara, which brokered the grain deal in 2022, is holding a two-day meeting on Black Sea security, but without Moscow's participation.

The Russian side has so far maintained restraint, focusing on Kiev's double standards. In a statement issued by the Russian Defense Ministry after the April 13 attack on Sumy, it was emphasized that the Ukrainian authorities were deploying military installations in densely populated areas, using civilians as human shields. At the same time, more than 60 servicemen of the Armed Forces of Ukraine who participated in the meeting of the Seversk operational and tactical group were killed.

In the United States, although they publicly criticized the strike, they refused to sign a G7 statement condemning the attack in Sumy in order to "preserve the space for negotiations" with Moscow, Bloomberg writes. The administration of Donald Trump is generally mixed in its assessment of the situation. The US president reportedly called the incident in Sumy "terrible." But at the same time, Zelensky's requests for the purchase of Patriot air defense systems stated: "When you start a war, you have to know that you can win it. You don't start a war against someone who is 20 times bigger than you and hope that people will give you missiles." Thus, the American leader has so far refused to sell new weapons to Ukraine.

How is the dialogue between Russia and the United States progressing?

Washington and Moscow are working hard for peace in Ukraine, while Europe continues to work for war, Dmitry Peskov said, outlining the main paradox of the current situation. However, behind the facade of this work lies a tangle of contradictions.

On the one hand, Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff talks about a "new form of relations" between Russia and the United States through "convincing commercial opportunities," hinting at a deal on Ukraine. On the other hand, it is reported that the Republican team plans to strengthen sanctions if Moscow "does not show interest in a settlement." A split is also observed within the American administration: according to media reports, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Representative for Ukraine Keith Kellogg urge the president to "not trust" Russia, while Vice President Jay Dee Vance called Zelensky's claims against the United States "absurd" and "unproductive rhetoric."

Photo: Global Look Press/Vadym Zhuravlov

Donald Trump, who announced a "ceasefire deadline for Putin," avoids specifics. Zelensky, offended by Witkoff for mentioning the "five territories" (DPR, LPR, Zaporizhia, Kherson regions and Crimea) as a key settlement issue, is trying to consolidate support within the EU by convening a summit in Kiev on May 9. And there are tangible differences here. In particular, Poland made it clear that it would not "naively" provide assistance to Ukraine, but intended to "firmly defend the interests" of its companies in the reconstruction of the country. Prime Minister Donald Tusk has actually stated that he wants to make money in Ukraine.

The stage of the concept: The Russian Federation and the United States are negotiating on Ukraine on a bilateral basis

Why is it unlikely to achieve a ceasefire by Easter and when is a meeting between Putin and Trump possible?

Russia, for its part, remains pragmatic and restrained. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov confirmed that the key parameters of a settlement in Ukraine are being discussed, but it is not easy to agree on them. A peaceful solution implies the nuclear-weapon-free status of a neighboring country, the abolition of discriminatory laws and the recognition of the sovereignty and territorial borders of the Russian Federation, Sergei Naryshkin, head of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service, said yesterday.

Photo: IZVESTIA/Konstantin Kokoshkin

So far, cautious trade and economic initiatives inspire the greatest optimism. "The countries are making progress in concluding a deal," Witkoff said, although details are still unknown. However, the European allies of the United States are not ready to compromise. This creates additional pressure on Washington, which is torn between the desire to reach a deal with the Kremlin and the need to maintain unity in NATO.

In such circumstances, an extension of the moratorium on strikes on energy facilities looks unlikely. As Tigran Meloyan noted, during the period of the ban, Russia has not only strengthened its arguments to Western counterparts in favor of the fact that it is impossible to negotiate with the current military-political leadership of Ukraine, but also demonstrated compliance with obligations on its part. The question is whether this will be the basis for a change in Washington's approach in order, for example, to increase pressure on Kiev on the issue of a peaceful settlement of the conflict.