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- Fuel bug: The EU may reconsider its position of rejecting gas from the Russian Federation
Fuel bug: The EU may reconsider its position of rejecting gas from the Russian Federation
Representatives of large European businesses openly talked about the need to increase purchases of Russian gas. In particular, top managers of French companies TotalEnergies and Engie called for increasing imports from Russia to 70 billion cubic meters per year from the current 50 billion cubic meters. Shortly before that, the European Commission again postponed the publication of the roadmap for the final abandonment of Russian fuel. Experts believe that the Europeans can increase supplies only by restoring basic ties with Russia, abandoning financial claims against Gazprom and launching Nord Streams. At the same time, if the United States takes control of transit gas pipelines, prices for Russian raw materials for Europeans are unlikely to be low. Whether it is possible to resume supplies to the EU and on what terms — in our material.
The European Commission without a card
The European Commission (EC) could not tell Izvestia the exact date of publication of the roadmap for the final phase-out of Russian gas. Initially, its publication was scheduled for March 26. In their response to the publication's request, they referred to a comment by the representative of the European Commission, Anna-Kaisa Itkonen.
"The work continues. A roadmap will be presented. I don't have a date yet that I can announce, but we are, of course, monitoring developments very closely and preparing our plan so that it is appropriate at the time of publication," Itkonen said.
Meanwhile, in Europe, they began to openly talk not about abandoning Russian gas, but about increasing its supplies. For example, the head of the French oil company TotalEnergies, Patrick Pouyanne, warned Europe against excessive dependence on American gas and said that it was necessary to increase Russian supplies.
"Europe will never return to importing 150 billion cubic meters from Russia. <...> But I would bet that maybe 70 billion cubic meters,— Pouyanne told Reuters.
Didier Hollo, executive vice president of the French Engie, agreed with him.
"If a reasonable peace is established in Ukraine, we could return to supplying 60 billion cubic meters, or maybe 70 billion cubic meters per year, including LNG," he said.
And according to a survey conducted by the Forsa Institute, in Mecklenburg—Vorpommern, the East German region where the Nord Stream gas pipeline comes ashore from the Baltic Sea, 49% of Germans want to return to Russian gas supplies.
Shooting at the foot
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, managing partner of WMT Consult, it seems that today the European Commission has taken a wait-and-see attitude while the countries of the Old World digest the shock of Trump's tariffs.
— Europe initially experienced a serious energy shock after a reduction in the supply of Russian energy resources. And now Trump is "finishing off" her with tariffs, among other things, demanding to buy $350 billion worth of energy from the United States. The European Union has already shot off one of its legs, and I don't think its economy is ready for even greater sacrifices. Therefore, Brussels has taken a wait—and-see attitude, analyzing the current situation," the expert believes.
At the end of January, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that Western countries had paid a high price for achieving freedom from Russian energy sources. According to her, gas imports from Russia have decreased by about 75%.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
And in early April, Trump announced the imposition of mirror duties on more than 200 countries. For the EU, the rate was 20%. Then on April 9, when the measure was supposed to take effect, the US president announced a 90-day pause, for which the base rate of 10% applies. Brussels has also suspended the introduction of retaliatory measures for this time.
In addition, on March 12, the United States imposed 25% duties on steel and aluminum imports from the EU worth $25 billion. Brussels imposed retaliatory duties on $22 billion worth of imports from the United States. Some goods will be subject to duties from April 15, while others will be subject to duties from mid—May.
Ursula von der Leyen proposed a policy of "zero tariffs," but Trump refused, considering it insufficient. In addition, the American president said that Europe should purchase $350 billion worth of energy resources from the United States.
US President Donald Trump
The representative of the European Commission, Anna-Kaisa Itkonen, commented on this requirement quite curiously.
— Regarding the $350 billion, clarifications are needed, the context is important. The European Commission itself is not a player in the market. We do not discuss energy purchase contracts. <...> Energy contracts are based on demand and price, factors that fluctuate. That is, it is difficult to comment on the figure mentioned by the United States," she said.
According to Ekaterina Kosareva, given the current situation, Europe is unlikely to take such drastic measures as the complete abandonment of Russian energy resources.
— Therefore, I do not think that it is worthwhile, in principle, to wait for a roadmap from the European Commission on this issue, — the expert believes.
Return with reservation
As for the Russian side, according to Alexey Grivach, Deputy Director General of the National Energy Security Fund, it is technically easy to return to the volumes that European businessmen are talking about.
— Last year, about 50 billion cubic meters of Russian gas were supplied to the EU. It would be easy to add another 20 billion through the surviving Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Poland or Ukraine. Currently, the main volumes go through the Turkish Stream through contracts with Hungarians and Greeks. Officially, only the Finns, Austrians and Germans announced the unilateral termination of contracts. And long—term LNG contracts are in force with the Spaniards, the French and some traders," the source notes.
It should be recalled that last year Gazprom terminated contracts with European energy giants, with which it had been building relations for many years. Since Gazprom cut off gas supplies to the EU via Nord Stream due to the disruption of the latter two years ago, Germany's Uniper and Austria's OMV filed a lawsuit in 2023. The German company managed to sue the Russian monopoly for € 13 billion, the Austrian — € 230 million. In addition, Gazprom continues to sue other European companies, such as Italy's Eni and Germany's RWE.
— The Russian side does not recognize these claims, as they were presented without a normal arbitration with representation of the interests of all parties, — Alexey Grivach notes.
According to Alexander Frolov, Deputy Director General of the National Energy Institute, at the moment the volume of legal claims against Gazprom is at least €15 billion.
— It is necessary to settle all legal claims. And to issue a permit for the operation of Nord Stream 2," the expert called possible conditions for the restoration of Russian gas exports to Europe.
Valery Andrianov, associate professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, also considers the restoration of the Nord Stream the most optimal option for everyone.
Izvestia sent requests to Gazprom and Novatek asking for comments on the possibility of increasing gas supplies to Europe. No responses have been received at the time of publication.
It is worth recalling that the court in Switzerland extended the moratorium on the bankruptcy of Nord Stream 2 until May 9 this year. At the same time, American investor Stephen Lynch is showing interest in buying Nord Stream 2 AG with all its assets and liabilities.
At the same time, information appeared in the media that the United States demanded that Kiev transfer the gas pipeline running through Ukrainian territory to Europe under American control. The point is that it should be controlled by the International Development Finance Corporation, controlled by the American government.
Alexander Frolov believes that the Americans are unlikely to get the pipelines. And according to Valery Andrianov, the degree of U.S. influence on pricing will depend on what role the American transit corporation, which receives a fixed payment for pumping gas, or the buyer of gas on the Russian—Ukrainian border, will play.
— The second option involving, however, not American, but certain European companies has already been discussed many times. In this case, all transit risks are removed from Russia, and the intermediary company can independently pursue its pricing policy. And yes, in this case, the cost of gas for Europeans may be based on the cost of American LNG, this will be another way for the United States to put pressure on European "partners," says Andrianov.
If control over transit gas pipelines goes to the Americans in one way or another, it is unlikely that the Europeans should wait for the return of cheap gas, because in this case the United States will not allow an increase in Russian supplies and will control them through transit tariffs, Ekaterina Kosareva agreed.
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