Glitter and bills: gold predicted to rise to $3,400 per ounce
Gold quotes will rise to $3,400 per ounce by the end of 2025, according to the Izvestia consensus forecast. At the same time, other precious metals — silver, palladium and platinum — will trade at the levels of the beginning of the year. In contrast, gold is a defensive asset against the backdrop of escalating trade wars. Therefore, it has already jumped by a quarter since the beginning of the year to $3,200 per ounce. Demand for precious metals is being shown not only by central banks around the world, but also by citizens — the largest financial organizations told Izvestia that sales of the asset to individuals increased by 20-30% in early 2025. However, there are also non-obvious consequences: due to the jump in prices, medical services and microelectronics may become more expensive, as precious metals are actively used in these areas.
Gold prices in 2025: forecast
Gold prices will reach $3,400 per ounce by the end of the year, according to Izvestia's consensus forecast. The most positive opinion was expressed by Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov, who expects precious metal quotes to increase to $4,000. The most restrained — $2,900 per ounce — was expressed by Alexey Mikheev, investment strategist at VTB My Investments.
In three months of this year, gold has already shown a sharp increase, rising in price by a quarter, and broke another record on April 11 — $ 3,200 per ounce.
Gold as a defensive asset is getting more expensive amid geopolitical tensions. This is primarily due to the unfolding trade wars: in April, Trump announced large-scale import duties against 185 countries. In relation to China, they have already reached 145%, and the PRC has already announced retaliatory fees of 125%. Then, for some states, the American president postponed the application of duties for 90 days. China is not one of them.
An increase or decrease in geopolitical tensions will directly affect the quotes of precious metals this year, explained Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global.
In addition, the rates of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) will influence the quotations of precious metals, says Marina Melnichuk, professor at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation. The risk that the US Federal Reserve will have to postpone the reduction in the federal funds rate and the 4.5% level will remain for the whole of 2025 increases the likelihood of a correction in gold, said Alexander Bakhtin, investment strategist at Garda Capital. And deposits and bonds that maintain profitability will once again compete with precious metals, he noted.
An increase in demand for gold from individuals and the world's central banks will have a positive effect on gold quotes, Marina Melnichuk added.
— However, if the global economy avoids a recession scenario in the event of the signing of US trade agreements with most significant countries, and the Fed rate decreases this year, gold will continue to be in high demand as a protective and anti-inflationary instrument. Then the technical medium—term target will be around $3,300 per ounce," predicted Alexander Bakhtin.
What will happen to the prices of silver, platinum and palladium
At the same time, other precious metals are not showing such positive dynamics as gold this year. Silver increased in price in the first months of 2025, but collapsed on April 2 and is now trading at the levels of the beginning of the year - at $31.3 per ounce. A similar picture has developed for platinum and palladium quotations: now their futures are even cheaper than at the beginning of the year — $938 and $917 per ounce, respectively.
This year, record figures for other precious metals should not be predicted. In an optimistic scenario, silver could rise to around $40 per ounce, but it is definitely not worth expecting that it will overtake gold in terms of price growth this year, said Finam analyst Alexander Potavin.
— If Trump starts to cancel all duties, the price of silver will recover to $35 per ounce, and palladium quotes will reach $1,000 per troy ounce. Most likely, duties of 10% will remain for everyone, therefore, we do not expect an increase above these values this year, Vladimir Chernov replied.
Palladium, in turn, does not have the status of "financial insurance," so Central banks will not invest massively in this metal, it is not liquid enough and is too dependent on industrial demand, Alexander Potavin explained.
— In the last six months, palladium has been trading in a narrow range of $900-1000 per ounce. This roughly corresponds to the average levels of the second half of last year. As you can see, palladium is not very interesting for investors yet, so its quotes are stuck in uncertainty," Alexander Potavin added.
At the same time, platinum, according to his forecasts, may increase in price, but only slightly — up to $ 1,090 per ounce.
Why do central banks buy gold
The sharp rise in prices for precious metals was significantly influenced by the increase in purchases by the world's leading countries — China, Russia, Turkey, India and Poland, Vladimir Chernov explained. For example, the National Bank of Poland was recognized as the leader in gold purchases, which increased its reserves by 29 tons. The People's Bank of China also continues to replenish reserves, adding 5 tons to reserves from November 2024 to February 2025. Turkey increased its purchases in February by 3 tons.
"Such purchases are aimed at diversifying reserves and reducing dependence on the US dollar, which may weaken its dominant role in the global financial system in the medium term," said Mikhail Gordienko, Professor at the Department of Finance for Sustainable Development at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
An increase in gold purchases may create risks for the dollar system. The US dollar is the main reserve currency of the world, and the active accumulation of gold may signal a decrease in confidence in the dollar as the main instrument of international settlements and capital storage, Vladimir Chernov concluded.
This is relevant for those countries that seek to increase their reserves and reduce dependence on the dollar, for example, Russia and China. If countries start switching from the dollar to gold, it could weaken the US currency in the global market.
— However, a complete abandonment of the dollar system is unlikely in the near future, as it remains the foundation of the global financial system, explained Vladimir Chernov.
How to invest in gold in Russia
Russian citizens are also showing interest in gold. The number of transactions for the purchase of this precious metal by customers since the beginning of 2025 is 20% more than the number of transactions in the same period last year, the Savings Bank noted. At the same time, despite such an increase, the volume of metal purchased by Russians in grams has practically not changed. In terms of the number of purchases, the most popular "gold" product is a metal bill, and in terms of volume, bullion, the bank said.
According to the results of the first quarter of 2025, the demand for precious metals increased by 30% compared to the same period last year - as part of a portfolio investment, customers hold up to 20% in gold, the director of Private Banking at Dom Bank told Izvestia.Russian Federation" by Alexander Ikriannikov.
— The demand from the bank's customers for cash gold remains high in March. The greatest interest was recorded in the second half of January 2025, Zenit Bank confirmed the trend.
MTS Bank also said that they have been recording an increase in demand since the second half of last year, especially in the winter months — from November 2024 to February this year.
How will rising prices for precious metals affect medicine and microelectronics
The rise in gold prices will undoubtedly affect the cost of products in medicine, microelectronics and solar energy, said Marina Melnichuk from the University of Finance. It is not always possible and advisable to replace this material, because it can greatly affect the quality.
— For example, unlike gold, palladium is less malleable, copper is a soft metal, and silver has high conductivity and is less resistant to oxidation, so its use in some electronic components is simply impossible. In addition, palladium reserves are 30 times less than gold, because it is produced only in two countries — Russia and South Africa — 80% of the world's volume," explained Marina Melnichuk.
Gold is used in medicine because of its ability to integrate into the patient's body and its non-toxicity, Vladimir Chernov added. Palladium and silver are used in medical devices, but their use is limited due to allergic reactions and lower durability. If you replace gold with another material, it will lead to a decrease in quality and risks for patients.
— In solar energy, gold is used as conductive materials. However, copper and silver are already actively used in this sector, although their effectiveness may be lower, especially during long—term operation," said Vladimir Chernov.
The increase in prices for precious metals will affect the cost of production in these areas, said Georgy Ostapkovich, Director of the HSE Center for Economic Research and Economic Analysis. In other words, medical organizations and electronics manufacturers will have to include this in the price of their products and services.
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