Contingent drift: will the "coalition of the willing" receive guarantees from the United States

The minimum program of the so—called "coalition of the willing" is to prolong the crisis in Ukraine and maintain tension on Russia's southwestern borders, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. At the same time, they admit that Kiev's allies may risk getting involved in the conflict, hoping that Russia will not touch them. On the other hand, the coalition led by Britain and France risks stalling, as it has not yet been able to obtain any firm commitments from the United States to guarantee Ukraine's security. Moscow has made it clear that the presence of Western troops in Ukraine in any format is unacceptable and carries the risk of a direct clash between Russia and NATO.

New meeting of the "coalition of the willing" in Brussels

On April 10, a meeting of the defense ministers of about 30 countries belonging to the so-called "coalition of the willing", led by Britain and France, took place at the NATO headquarters in Brussels. Before that, the EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Kaya Kallas, said that the EU and NATO countries were exploring the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine after the truce in a format ranging from a "monitoring mission" to a "deterrence mission."

According to Bloomberg, which cites sources familiar with the situation, at the moment about 15 countries have expressed their willingness to participate in the operation after the peace agreement is signed. So far, only France, Great Britain, Sweden, as well as Australia and Canada have openly expressed their desire to send contingents to Ukraine. Kiev claims that the Baltic states also want to participate in the mission. Some coalition countries, such as Italy and Finland, have ruled out participating in the operation.

Meanwhile, according to agency sources, the "coalition of the willing" risks stalling, as it has not been able to obtain any firm commitments from the White House to provide security guarantees. Recall that in February, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that any peace agreement on Ukraine would require the "support of the United States," since their "security guarantees are the only way to effectively contain Russia."

After that, at a meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron, the head of the White House pointed out that Europe "will not need much support" on Ukraine from the United States. According to the Financial Times, the diplomats who prepared the meeting in Brussels tried to downplay the importance of the absence of the US representative at it. However, they were still uneasy about this fact, especially since European capitals have long been concerned about the possibility of reducing the support of the North Atlantic Alliance from the United States.

Indeed, earlier, the head of the US Department of Defense, Pete Hegseth, said that if European peacekeepers find themselves in Ukraine, it will be only as part of a non-NATO mission, and in this case article 5 of the alliance's charter on collective defense will not apply to them. Moreover, in March, the American president warned that he would not defend NATO states that were not ready to increase defense spending.

The United States will not give security guarantees to coalition troops if they are sent to Ukraine, says Dmitry Trenin, research director at the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

— Trump does not intend to risk the security of the United States. But the coalition is unlikely to collapse. She will support Kiev with weapons, ammunition, and finances. The coalitionists are in favor of continuing the war with Russia, and Ukraine is their buffer in the eastern direction. Anything is possible in this world, but I would not expect Trump to provide probable guarantees to the Europeans or Kiev from the United States — that is, their automatic entry into the war in certain circumstances," the Izvestia interlocutor argues.

What could be the Western mission in Ukraine

It is not yet clear what exactly the operation of the "coalition of the willing" in Ukraine will be. Based on what Macron and Starmer said, European troops should ensure the security of critical Ukrainian infrastructure facilities, major ports and cities located far from the front line. The very line of contact will be controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. According to Western officials cited by Bloomberg, the Ukrainian army will become an integral part of the coalition.

The plan of the "coalitions of the willing" is to ensure that the United States remains in conflict, according to American scholar Dmitry Drobnitz.

— The Europeans do not have any specific and long-term strategy, except to try to maintain constant tension for Russia on the southwestern borders, trying to avoid direct conflict as much as possible. They will puff out their cheeks, hoping that they will still remain under the umbrella of the United States," he added.

In any case, the expert says, it is difficult for Trump to talk to the Europeans, and it is obvious that they do not listen to him, hence the attempts of the American president to put pressure on them with duties. "We should not forget that we are not just talking about European countries. The coalition has some kind of support in the United States Congress and in the entire Democratic Party of the United States," he added.

Moscow has repeatedly stated that the appearance of Western forces in a neighboring country is unacceptable. "We would like to remind you that any foreign military presence in Ukraine, regardless of the flag, signage, or declared mandates, will be considered by the Russian Federation as a threat to the security of our country and carries the risk of direct clashes between participants in such so—called missions from individual NATO members and, consequently, the entire alliance with our country," she said. On April 9, the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Maria Zakharova.

Nevertheless, it is not worth completely excluding the possibility of sending European contingents to Ukraine even without guarantees from the United States, Dmitry Trenin continues.

— It will be extremely risky, but the level of madness in Paris, London and Berlin today is such that they can get involved in a conflict hoping that Russia will not touch them. After all, the Russian Federation did not bomb the base in Wiesbaden, from where the Americans and Ukrainians planned attacks on Russian territory. So a direct European war against Russia is possible. The Americans will most likely be on the second line in this case," he added.

In any case, discussions about the role of Europeans in the conflict will continue. Zelensky promised last week that meetings of the "coalition of willing" would be regular. On April 11, the next congress of Kiev's military sponsors will be held in the Ramstein format. Although Zelensky had previously announced the possible absence of American representatives, the Pentagon confirmed to Agence France-Presse that Pete Hegseth had changed his mind and still planned to join the meeting of the contact group on defense of Ukraine via video link.

According to Dmitry Drobnitsky, the United States will not be able to quickly get out of the conflict anyway — too much was invested in it at the time. The American expert summed up: "Whatever may be said about the European allies in Washington, the formal alliance between the United States and Europe on the conflict in Ukraine has not yet been severed."