Tariff fee: how trade wars will affect the Central Bank's decision on the key

The Bank of Russia will approach the key reduction carefully, said the head of the regulator, Elvira Nabiullina, speaking in the State Duma with the annual report on April 9. We need to make sure that the slowdown in inflation is sustainable. There is also a new significant risk — trade wars. They also need to be taken into account, the Central Bank is confident. New large-scale US duties against a number of countries and their retaliatory measures may lead to the fact that exporters will have to raise prices to compensate for the shortfall in costs. This may also affect inflation in Russia, experts explained. The central Bank is likely to move to a rate cut only in June-September, experts expect. What other changes the Central Bank has planned for 2025 and why Russians want to limit the issuance of loans and even cards — in the Izvestia article.

How Trump's steps may affect the key rate in Russia

On April 9, the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, addressed the State Duma with a report on the work of the regulator in 2024. She devoted the main part to the key rate, which is now at a record high of 21%.

Last year, the Bank of Russia tried to prevent the inflationary spiral from unfolding. There were many fears that such a rate level would undermine economic growth and lead to a recession, but so far this has not happened, the chairman of the Central Bank emphasized. She added that economic growth will continue this year, albeit at a slower pace.

The Bank of Russia will approach the key reduction carefully, Elvira Nabiullina said. She explained that in 2024, after slowing down at the beginning of the year, inflation "reared its head again." Therefore, we need to make sure that the current decline in price growth is sustainable.

Another factor is the tectonic changes in global trade that are unfolding before our eyes. And it is still very difficult to judge where they will lead the global economy and how they will affect Russia. This is a new significant risk that needs to be taken into account, said the head of the Central Bank.

The trade war creates risks for Russia, despite the fact that the United States has not imposed separate duties against our country, said Oleg Abelev, head of the analytical department at the investment company Rikom-Trust. According to him, China's position is especially important for Russia. He will have to drastically reduce his exports to the United States due to new duties. This will lead to a large share of the lost revenue, which will have to be compensated by the remaining trading counterparties. In other words, China will raise prices for exported goods. This is the main risk for the Russian Federation, the expert believes.

He added that other states that have become victims of the increase in duties will also be forced to increase export prices with other trading partners. This may affect the level of inflation in the Russian Federation. However, Oleg Abelev believes that the Central Bank is unlikely to keep the rate high for too long. This leads to excessive budget spending, in particular, on servicing government debt and supporting government mortgage programs.

— Judging by the statements of the head of the Central Bank about a careful and cautious approach, there are no hopes for a rate cut in April. And June, apparently, is questionable. Although inflation has been slowing down since January, as well as economic dynamics in general," said Boris Kopeikin, chief economist at the Stolypin Institute for Growth Economics.

He is confident that the economic situation requires an early reduction in the cost of money. In Russia, it is now at one of the highest levels in the world. If decisive steps are not taken, the economic growth rate will continue to fall.

At the same time, trade wars carry high risks for the Russian economy, including due to the collapse in commodity prices, explained Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. For Russia, as the largest exporter of energy resources, this increases the risk of an increased budget deficit.

Therefore, the budget rule is starting to work again — it should offset the drop in revenues from the sale of petroleum products below the level included in the financial plan for 2025. It shows the Urals price at $60, and current prices are already 12% lower, the expert noted. Therefore, according to him, in the near future the dollar exchange rate may rise to 90-95 rubles. This will also put pressure on the prices of imported goods.

Because of this, the Central Bank will have to keep the key at a high level for longer. Previously, the beginning of its decline was predicted in May-June 2025. And now it can be expected two or three months later - in June—September, Vladimir Chernov said.

Why does the Central Bank want to limit the number of loans and cards per person

At the same time, the Central Bank expects that price growth will be slowed down this year, and next year we will be able to enter with inflation near the target of 4%, Elvira Nabiullina noted in her speech.

Among other goals of the regulator for this year, she named improving the stability of banks, developing the capital market and combating fraud. And also the development of the national payment infrastructure.

The head of the Central Bank considers it necessary to continue the reform of MFIs. She proposed three related changes: the "one loan in one hand" principle, a three-day cooling-off period between such loans, and a reduction in overpayments to 100%.

It is necessary to break the chains of microloans when MFOs drive people into a debt spiral, Elvira Nabiullina emphasized. At the same time, according to her, it is necessary to "cut off the oxygen to black creditors."

The Central Bank introduces restrictions on the share of MFIs in order to reduce the debt burden of the population, as well as reduce the risks of bankruptcy of citizens and non-payment of loans, explained Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global. He added: microfinance organizations often offer them at high interest rates, reaching several hundred per annum, using hidden fees, complex terms of contracts and other tricks to increase income at the expense of borrowers. As a result, people may find themselves in debt, where the amount of overpayments is many times higher than the main debt.

Starting from July 1, 2025, the maximum amount of overpayments that the MFO charges to the borrower will not be able to exceed 100%, the expert recalled. In his opinion, such restrictions are correct, they should be implemented consistently and gradually.

In his speech, the head of the Central Bank also stressed the need to combat fraud. She stated that the Bank of Russia supports the introduction of criminal liability for droppery. Nabiullina also advocated limiting the number of cards per customer has. A person does not need 100 of them, and fraudsters can use this to commit crimes.

The more cards a person has, the more likely they are to be used for illegal purposes, explained Vladimir Chernov. Limiting their number will make it more difficult to use multiple accounts to withdraw funds or evade taxes and reduce the burden on banks to verify suspicious transactions, he said.