Island Capital: The United States is increasing pressure on China through support for Taiwan

Taipei is strengthening cooperation with Washington on defense issues, Taiwan's military told Izvestia. They explain these actions by "threats and the development of the Chinese Armed Forces." Meanwhile, for China, the island's rapprochement with the United States is a red line. On April 1-2, Beijing conducted large-scale exercises around the island to protect its sovereignty. They stated that the island's independence was incompatible with peace in the Taiwan Strait. Meanwhile, the head of the Pentagon, Pete Hegseth, following a tour to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, called for unity in countering the "Chinese threat." Whether to expect an escalation around Taiwan under the Trump administration is in the Izvestia article.

Why did China start exercises around Taiwan

While Donald Trump is trying to "save" the US economy by unleashing a trade war with its closest neighbors and a fundamental geopolitical rival in China, the situation is heating up around another subject of American interests — Taiwan. To contain Beijing, Washington is stepping up cooperation with Taipei after the change of administration.

— Security cooperation between Taiwan and the United States is aimed at maintaining peace and stability in the region. We maintain the necessary dialogue with the relevant US departments in the field of defense through existing exchange mechanisms, strengthening the basis of our interaction," the Taiwanese defense ministry told Izvestia.

They clarified that "faced with diverse threats and the rapid development of the Chinese armed forces," they continue to work with allies and partners to strengthen defense capabilities and "maintain peace and stability in the region."

PLA in a different way: what the Chinese army is practicing at exercises off the coast of Taiwan

During the maneuvers, Beijing is exploring the possibility of obtaining comprehensive control and blocking key areas of the island.

However, China has a different point of view on what is happening. In Beijing, the island is considered a breakaway province of China, and separatist forces are called a threat to stability in the region. By them, the PRC usually means the Taipei administration, in this case Lai Tsingde, and Taiwan's main ally, the United States, although they do not have diplomatic relations with unrecognized Taiwan on paper.

Citing the need to fight for democratic values, the United States has adopted several legislative amendments in order to provide legal support to Taipei, including by supplying weapons. Cooperation between the United States and Taiwan has only intensified under the Trump administration.

Against this background, the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA) began large-scale military exercises "Thunder over the Strait — 2025A" in the Taiwan Strait on April 1. The army, navy, aviation, and missile forces worked together to "coordinate forces in combat" and block shipping lanes. The island's defense Ministry reported that 76 aircraft and 15 PLA ships were detected approaching during the day, and 37 aircraft crossed the median line of the strait, which is only de facto considered the unofficial border between the mainland and the island - it is not recognized in China. On Wednesday, the PLA even conducted live firing, practicing strikes on port and energy facilities.

They stressed that this is a "serious warning" and a "powerful deterrent" for separatist forces advocating Taiwan independence. According to the command, the exercises are necessary to protect national sovereignty. A little later, the Chinese Defense Ministry made an even louder statement: Taiwan's independence is incompatible with peace in the Taiwan Strait.

The exercises that have begun are accompanied not only by loud statements, as loud as possible for a restrained Beijing, but also by creativity. Along with the announcement of the exercises, China released a video in which the elected head of Taiwan's administration, Lai Qingde, is depicted as a beetle being held with chopsticks over a burning island.

However, such injections are applied from both sides. On March 13, 2025, the day before the 20th anniversary of China's adoption of the Anti-Secession Law, Qingdao officially called China a "foreign hostile force." After that, Taipei deported several women with a Chinese passport who were married to residents of Taiwan. It is reported that they expressed their support for the annexation of the island by force.

Should we expect an escalation around Taiwan

On March 18, a document was released that informed Taiwanese lawmakers about upcoming exercises to practice attacks from the mainland. It listed 2027 as the date of the expected Chinese "invasion." At the same time, in similar publicly available documents over the past 10 years, such specific dates were not mentioned, Bloomberg reported.

The forecasts are probably based on Chinese Leader Xi Jinping's order to modernize the PLA and turn it into a "world-class" army by 2027. Against this background, the US Navy and the CIA periodically declare that it was then that the "invasion" was supposed to take place.

Against this background, in March, the Pentagon, the Taiwanese authorities and military experts modeled possible scenarios for a blockade of the island by mainland China, The Wall Street Journal reports. Among other things, the increased frequency of China's military exercises allows us to calculate them. Such scenarios include a direct air attack, a blockade with the help of the Chinese Navy, isolation by blocking access of merchant ships to Taiwan, mining of the island's main ports, as well as cyber isolation, that is, damage to underwater Internet cables.

At the same time, the leader of the United States, which is supposed to protect Taiwan in the event of an "attack," has so far refused to unequivocally answer the question of whether he intends to oppose Beijing if the latter uses force to reunite with Taiwan. At the end of February, Donald Trump did not comment on this topic at all, noting that it was worth discussing such an issue only with the staff of his administration. In addition, the head of the White House assured that he has "excellent relations" with his Chinese counterpart.

— The Trump administration is aiming to arm Taiwan. A few weeks ago, the United States unfrozen billions in security assistance programs for Taiwan and the Philippines, and both of these signals are addressed to China. Tensions are expected to rise. Ultimately, how this crisis will develop largely depends on the interaction between Xi and Trump, as well as on how the latter reacts to the exercises," Nancy Wei, associate professor of political Science at Wenzhou University, told Izvestia.

A couple of weeks ago, Donald Trump expressed a desire to meet with Xi Jinping. Against this background, it is still premature to expect a multiple escalation of the situation around Taiwan. The latest exercises, like all previous ones, are a reaction either to support for the island's independence or to new supplies of modern weapons, Ekaterina Zaklyazminskaya, a leading researcher at the Center for World Politics and Strategic Analysis of the ISSA RAS, told Izvestia. Although one should not underestimate the role of the so-called Chinese hawks in the Trump team.

— The "Taiwan card" is still a serious irritant of Beijing. Many representatives of the new Trump administration hold irreconcilable anti-Chinese positions. For example, US Vice President Jay D. Vance is convinced that Taiwan is more important than Ukraine. Washington's provocations under Trump are likely to continue," the expert concluded.

Friendship vs. the dragon: Taiwan is getting closer to Trump

The island has decided to purchase up to $10 billion worth of weapons from the US

So far, the actions of the Trump administration speak for themselves. Last week, US Secretary of Defense Peter Hegseth made his first tour of the Asia-Pacific region, where Washington, like Beijing, is consistently increasing its influence. He visited Hawaii and Guam, where he met with the command staff of the US Armed Forces (there are American military bases there), and then traveled to the Philippines and Japan.

The main leitmotif of Hegseth's tour was the slogan "peace through strength" and a call to unite in countering the "Chinese threat." The results of the visits indicate that the United States intends to continue strengthening the anti-Chinese front in the Asia-Pacific region, and the talks in Manila and Tokyo demonstrated the strength of Washington's allied commitments.