How to save money: a mortgage with an affordable down payment is a thing of the past
The initial mortgage payment at the beginning of the year reached almost a third of the cost of housing, Izvestia found out. Housing loans are becoming less and less affordable for Russians, because at best a borrower with an average income will have to save money for their registration for at least three years without drinking or eating. At the same time, rates on market programs remain at a protective level, despite their slight decrease since April 1. When banks will be able to ease the mortgage issuance policy and how the market situation will affect the cost of housing — in the Izvestia article.
What is the initial mortgage payment required by banks
The initial payment under preferential programs as a whole has reached almost a third of the cost of housing, according to data from Dom.RF (available from Izvestia). In January, the indicator was at a record high of 32%, and according to preliminary information for February, it increased further — above 33%.
Housing loans are becoming less affordable for Russians, despite government programs. It is for them that the bulk of loans are being issued now, as the rates on market offers are prohibitive. According to Frank RG estimates, in February banks issued mortgages for 230 billion rubles. Of these, state—backed loans accounted for 80% (186 billion rubles), and the most widespread program for families with children accounted for more than 70% of all loans (168 billion rubles).
The average initial payment on a family mortgage in February reaches an average of 35%, according to preliminary data from Dom.RF. By law, it should be at least 20% of the cost of housing, but banks have raised this level higher on their own initiative — for example, for individual players it can reach 80%.
— Due to the growth of the key market, high-quality borrowers have left the market in the first place. Therefore, banks were forced to review their risk policy and tighten their approach to selecting new customers," explained Alexey Volkov, Marketing Director of the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI).
According to him, the increase in the initial payment is a way to select the most reliable and conscientious citizens from the mass of potential applicants for a loan.
The initial payment of about a third of the cost of housing can be considered very large, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. The growth of the indicator greatly reduces the ability of Russians to solve the housing issue.
How affordable is a family mortgage
The average check across Russia for a family mortgage in February was 5.6 million rubles, according to Dom.RF data. This means that with a down payment of about 35%, the cost of housing purchased under the program is about 8.6 million rubles.
It turns out that in February, on average, the initial payment for the most massive state program was 3 million rubles. A Russian with an average income of 88,000 will save this amount for almost three years, provided that he puts aside all his money to buy a home. At the same time, consumer spending on average takes about 40 thousand per month from Russians, it follows from the data of Sberindex — that is, it will take much longer to save for an apartment — six years.
In addition, housing prices may rise further during this time. According to the Central Bank, in the last five years alone, the average cost per square meter in new buildings has more than doubled — from 71.5 thousand to 177 thousand rubles.
In large cities, the situation can be even more difficult.
The average area of housing in Moscow, according to the Metrium company, in the middle of 2024 was about 55 square meters. m. A family with children needs at least a two-room apartment. The cost of residential spaces within the MKAD with such parameters, according to Yandex Real Estate, mainly starts from 18 million rubles.
The initial payment of 35% on the mortgage for such housing will amount to almost 6 million rubles. The average Muscovite will also manage this amount in about three years, but his income for this should be at least 130 thousand rubles. At the same time, he must also give up food and not spend money on renting an apartment (its average cost in the capital has reached 90 thousand rubles, according to Yandex Rent).
How have market mortgage rates changed?
Mortgages without government support still remain inaccessible to Russians. The rates of key market players, according to the latest estimates of Izvestia, exceed 29%. The overpayment on such a loan for an average mortgage term of 25 years will be more than sevenfold.
At the same time, banks have moved to lower rates on basic mortgage programs. Since April 1, six credit institutions from the top 10 have adjusted the range of the full cost of such loans by 0.5-1.5 percentage points, Izvestia found out. UCS was omitted from Sberbank, VTB, Alfa-Bank, Sovcombank, and Dom Bank.Russian Federation" and Ak Bars Bank. The editors sent inquiries to the specified organizations.
Banks include in the cost of their products the possibility of easing the key interest rate in the second half of 2025, explained Nikita Kulagin, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Sovcombank. Nevertheless, this level remains a barrier for Russians, since it is much more profitable to buy a house on a preferential mortgage, the rate of which will be five times lower than the market rate.
What will happen to the real estate market in 2025
By the end of 2024, the Central Bank noted the cooling of the mortgage market, follows from the analytical materials of the regulator. This helps to reduce demand in the country. Ultimately, this will contribute to a slowdown in inflation.
Nevertheless, it is the mortgage market that remains the most problematic for the Central Bank. In recent years, the presence of an unaddressed government program, which extended to all new buildings, artificially accelerated the demand for real estate, which led to a rapid increase in prices for it. It was only in 2024 that the authorities switched to a more balanced state support for the market, retaining only targeted measures for families with children, IT specialists and residents of the Far East and the Arctic.
Nevertheless, due to the high key interest rate, the risks for credit institutions have increased significantly. In the Dom bank.The Russian Federation" reported a drop in the credit quality of borrowers. This creates systemic threats for market participants, said Yuri Belikov, Managing Director of the Expert RA rating agency.
— That is why we should not expect a decrease in the average initial payment in the near future, — said the specialist.
Banks will be able to ease their mortgage policy only after lowering the key interest rate, VTB stressed. The market consensus is that the Central Bank's policy easing cycle will begin in the second half of 2025.
Until then, financial institutions will maintain strict conditions for all mortgage programs, Andrei Barkhota said. This, in turn, creates difficulties for developers, who have repeatedly complained about falling demand.
— An increase in the initial payment may also indicate that bankers are seriously afraid of lower real estate prices. Mortgage housing is secured by them — if its market value decreases, then if the borrower fails to pay, the organization may incur significant losses," said Alexey Volkov from NBKI.
Nevertheless, there has not been a steady downward trend in real estate prices so far, Andrei Barkhota said. Individual market participants offer discounts and promotions, which can significantly lower the real cost of an apartment. But in general, the costs of developers for construction are growing strongly — they simply do not have the opportunity to systematically reduce prices.
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