Criminal reprisals: Marine Le Pen was deprived of the right to participate in the 2027 elections.

The decision of the French justice system to deprive the leader of the National Association, Marine Le Pen, of the right to participate in the 2027 elections is a serious blow to democracy and the political system in France, politicians and experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. In their opinion, everything points to an attempt by the country's authorities, as well as Brussels, to crack down on its main political rival, who, according to polls, could seriously compete with any politician in 2027. The verdict has already caused outrage in the camp of the EU right-wing forces. The Kremlin also stated that "a number of European capitals are on the path of violating democratic norms." About the court's decision and who will be able to replace Marine Le Pen in the election race — in the Izvestia article.

The court sentenced Marine Le Pen

On March 31, a Paris court sentenced Marine Le Pen, the leader of the National Unification Party, to four years in prison in the case of the fictitious hiring of assistants to MEPs. The punishment includes two years of house arrest with wearing an electronic bracelet and a fine of €100,000. The main thing is that a politician is now deprived of the right to participate in any election for the next five years, whether presidential or parliamentary. If Marine Le Pen has the right to challenge the term of imprisonment and the amount of the fine, then the political part of the verdict is not subject to appeal.

The verdict was read out for more than two hours, but Marine Le Pen defiantly left the courtroom, just as the judge reached his decision on the point relating to her right to run. The politician will not be able to nominate her candidacy in the 2027 elections, although according to recent polls she could receive from 34% to 37% of the vote in the first round, significantly ahead of candidates from other parties. The court's decision regarding Le Pen's right to participate in the elections is subject to immediate execution and can only be overturned in the case of a new trial that can last until the elections. As for the term of imprisonment and the fine, the lawyer has already filed an appeal on this part of the sentence.

The incident is an attack on democracy and the interference of the judicial system in the issue of the division of power, French lawyer Philippe De Vel explains to Izvestia.

— The justice system is quite politicized, right-wing candidates are targeted by judges, some of whom are very politicized and adhere to leftist views. It would be possible to appeal to the Constitutional Council, but this is a hypothetical option. There is no certainty that she will be able to participate in the elections. So yes, today is a blow to her political career and a blow to her claims for the presidential election," he said.

According to investigators, in the period from 2004 to 2016, representatives of the party, then called the National Front, engaged in fictitious hiring of assistants to MEPs. These "assistants" never met with their official employer or went to the European Parliament, but nevertheless received salaries from the EU treasury. According to the court, such a "system" allowed the party to save on salaries, the total damage amounted to €2.9 million.

For example, according to investigators, one of Marine Le Pen's assistants, Thierry Lejeune, was actually the bodyguard of her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen. Another assistant to the politician, Catherine Grise, combined this position with work at the party headquarters in the Paris suburb of Nanterre. 12 assistants, as well as eight MEPs who were involved in the case with Le Pen, were also found guilty. Among them is the current member of the European Parliament, Nicolas Bae.

The consequences of the verdict for the French political system

This verdict is a strong blow to the French political system and the balance of political forces, given the popularity of Marine Le Pen, Sergei Fedorov, a leading researcher at the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia.

— This changes the prospects of other political forces to hold their candidates for the highest office of the state and simplifies the task of the Macronists. Marine Le Pen is one of the most powerful and experienced French politicians. Macron, however, set one of his goals — to prevent the extreme right in the person of Marine Le Pen from coming to power. And the court's decision simplifies this task," he said.

According to the expert, the most likely replacement for Le Pen will be the current president of the party, Jordan Bardella. However, despite all his virtues and political charisma, such a replacement is unlikely to be of equal value, since he simply lacks experience.

For his part, Bardella, in social networks, declared the "unfair verdict" of Marine Le Pen, stressing that the verdict was handed down to the "French democracy" itself. Although Le Pen's verdict is unlikely to provoke a wave of mass protests, it can unleash the hands of the "National Association" in the lower house of the French parliament, the National Assembly, Sergei Fedorov is sure.

— Under certain circumstances, it may try to dismiss the current government of Francois Bayrou. This sword of Damocles has long been raised over the current Cabinet of Ministers, and the current situation may further increase political instability in France," he added.

Francois Bayrou also found himself in the dock in 2023 in a very similar case of the fictitious hiring of assistants to the Democratic Movement Party in the European Parliament. At that time, the prosecution also requested punishment in the form of imprisonment, a fine and a ban on participating in elections. However, Bayrou was acquitted, unlike other party colleagues.

The situation with Marine Le Pen's sentence shows that the current political system in France protects itself by eliminating any opposition politician with the hands of justice, former MEP Herve Juvin confirms to Izvestia.

"In order to keep power in their hands, the French establishment is completely blocking all opportunities for the National Association to finance their election campaigns," he added.

In this sense, the accusations that appear from the French authorities against the "National Association" for Marine Le Pen's connection with the Kremlin are indicative. So, during the 2014 presidential campaign, the party took out a loan of €9 million from the First Czech-Russian Bank. During the 2022 election campaign, this gave Macron an excuse to accuse Le Pen of being dependent on the Russian authorities. According to Marine Le Pen, at that time, no French bank gave her and her party the opportunity to get a loan.

Reaction to the verdict in Europe and Russia

Le Pen's verdict caused a wave of indignation in the camp of the European right-wing forces. For example, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban expressed his solidarity with her by writing "Je suis Marine" in French. Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini accused Brussels of "declaring war." "It's a bad movie that we see in other countries, such as Romania," he added, alluding to the suspension of Romanian politician Calin Giordescu, who also held leading positions in the election ratings.

In Europe, democratic and legitimate opposition forces are systematically eliminated if they question the centralized course of the EU, Elena Fritz, a member of the German Alternative for Germany party, said in an interview with Izvestia.

— This is not a sign of stability, but an alarming signal. A democracy in which only "systemic" candidates are allowed is no longer a true democracy. And if you keep silent today when Le Pen is excluded, then tomorrow you shouldn't be surprised if you yourself are banned from participating in the elections," she added.

According to the Kremlin, the situation around Marine Le Pen's sentence is an internal matter of France. However, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that more and more European capitals "do not shy away from going beyond democracy during the political process."