Balance Day: the Moscow Exchange index was prescribed to consolidate above 3,000 points

The Moscow Exchange index will gain a foothold in the range of 3000-3100 points even without additional positive news from the field of geopolitics, experts polled by Izvestia predict. This is a fair value for the Russian stock market, given the positive signals from the Central Bank on the key rate and the overall performance of companies. At the same time, stocks will be volatile: investors are playing off every statement in the framework of the negotiation process between Russia and the United States. If real progress appears in the near future, the Moscow Exchange index may rise above 3,300 points, and in a negative scenario it risks falling below 2,800 points, analysts warned.

Moscow Exchange Index: forecast

On March 31, the Moscow Exchange index, which reflects the quotes of the "blue chips" of the Russian stock market, fell below 3,000 points for the first time since February 11. At the lowest point, it reached the level of 2970 points, but then returned to a round value, it follows from the data of the trading platform.

The main trigger for the Moscow Exchange index in the last month was the geopolitical news related to the negotiation process between Moscow and Washington. If two weeks ago the market was consolidating in anticipation of a 30-day ceasefire, which could be followed by presidential elections in Ukraine, now no one is talking about the imminent signing of a peace agreement, said Nikita Stepanov, analyst at Finam.

— It all started with negotiations between the Russian and American sides in Riyadh last week. They lasted about eight hours, investors expected positive agreements, for example, on the cessation of attacks on energy facilities and fire in the Black Sea. However, there was no press conference - there were only verbal statements from the White House that progress was underway and there would be no more such attacks," he said.

The Russian authorities said it would be very difficult to reach a consensus, and all the agreements were only verbal. Attacks on energy facilities continued, which went against investors' expectations and led to a correction.

Like the icing on the cake, on Sunday, the American media began promoting news that Trump was allegedly unhappy with the Kremlin's actions and that there was a conditional deadline for the suspension of hostilities, after which additional sanctions would be imposed on the Russian oil industry, Nikita Stepanov continued. However, Trump himself denied this news on the morning of March 31, saying that the solution to the problem was moving slowly but surely. However, this did not inspire investors.

— In general, the Russian market has fulfilled positive expectations and is no longer ready to grow on the promises of future changes. Now investors are waiting for the facts and are highly likely to focus on them when making decisions about buying shares," summed up Valentina Savenkova, Project Manager at IC Veles Capital.

Investments in Russian stocks in April 2025

However, if we ignore the geopolitical news, the Russian stock market has reached its equilibrium position, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia. The level of 3000-3100 points against a predominantly negative background for the Moscow Exchange index may be quite a fair value, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. It means that there is no reason for a serious collapse, but investors' overly optimistic, mainly geopolitical, expectations have not been fulfilled.

Apart from geopolitics, the market is supported by fundamental factors. First of all, this is the policy of the Central Bank, explained Kirill Klimentyev, an analyst at Cifra Broker. The lower the key rate, the less attractive the deposit yields will be, which means it will be more profitable for investors to buy shares, which will support their quotes.

Although Russia maintains a record high interest rate of 21% and is not expected to decrease at the next meeting at the end of April, the Bank of Russia may send a softer signal due to low credit growth and declining inflation, Kirill Klimentiev emphasized. As Izvestia wrote earlier, the policy easing cycle may begin as early as the summer of 2025, and by the end of the year the rate may be lowered to 17-18%.

In addition, the ruble will provide support to Russian quotations, Andrei Krylov, senior equity market strategist at SberCIB Investment Research, expects. According to his expectations, by the end of the year, the exchange rate will settle in the region of 95 rubles/$ at the current 85 rubles/$, which will support the business of exporters, and therefore their securities. And in the short term, investors will also be attracted by the dividend season, BCS World of Investments added.

In a positive scenario for the coming months, experts interviewed by Izvestia expect the Moscow Exchange index to rise above 3,300 points. This will happen if Russia and the United States manage to reach specific agreements, said Andrey Krylov from SberCIB Investment Research.

— The negative scenario is the lack of progress in negotiations and the tightening of sanctions pressure. This will lead to an increase in the profitability of OFZ and maintain pressure on the stock market. In such a scenario, the Moscow Exchange index may adjust to the level of 2,800 points," he added.

However, on a longer—term horizon, in the coming year, the indicators of the Russian stock market may rise to 3,600 points, says Anna Kokoreva, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments. She clarified that the potential return for investors is 14% without dividends, and 23% with these payments.