The right course: prices for imported electronics began to decline in Russia
In Russia, against the background of the strengthening of the ruble, prices for electronics began to decline — for example, the iPhone fell by 10-15%. But it will be possible to talk about reducing the cost of most positions only after two to three months or even several quarters if the exchange rate remains stable, market participants believe. Goods at the new prices are already being purchased, but until they are paid for and delivered, time will pass, experts add.
Which goods are getting cheaper with the dollar
Russian sellers and importers of electronics have either already lowered prices for some goods, or are waiting for them to decrease. But it is impossible to immediately reduce the cost of all imports: the specifics of logistics and calculations are affected, they explain.
— In our retail network, prices have decreased for a number of products. For example, the cost of an iPhone has dropped by an average of 10%, MTS told Izvestia.
In the press service of "M.Video-Eldorado noted that they had already reacted to the strengthening of the ruble and adjusted prices for Apple smartphones — a decrease of up to 15%. This applies to both the current iPhone 16 line and other brand models, the company added.
There are goods on the shelf that were previously ordered at a high rate, now they are already being ordered at a lower rate, but they have not yet reached Russia. For now, we need to sell the existing ones, says an employee of one of the importers. In his opinion, in the near future, customers will be able to count on discounts, because warehouses and stores must be vacated before the arrival of new shipments.
— Usually shipments from China go to Russia by sea for two or three months. It's a couple of weeks on the plane. But only the most high—margin goods, such as smartphones, are transported by air," the source told Izvestia.
Supplier prices do not provide for an instant response to the current exchange rate. It is necessary to take into account the volatility of the currency in order to be able to earn and receive enough funds to purchase the next batch of goods at new prices, Anton Fomin, head of retail projects at Marvel Distribution, explained to Izvestia. Apart from the course, prices also depend on logistics, promotion costs, and so on, he points out.
According to him, the turnover of imported goods ranges from 10 to 180 days, depending on the category, marginality, financial capabilities of a particular supplier and other factors.
— Turnover depends on the category and on the specific retailer: for example, a large and sluggish seller can find past versions of Playstation 5 consoles, while someone sells the latest releases. Someone also buys iPhone cases every six months, but by the thousands and only red ones, while someone carries them every week for 10-20 pieces and with rhinestones, because the portrait of the consumer is clear. But each of them forms the most optimal price for the consumer and for its economic feasibility," the expert said.
According to him, as soon as there is clarity about the Central Bank's rate and it begins to decline, prices will slowly begin to creep down over the next two or three quarters. Perhaps if the rate drops by the end of the year, there will be a peak drop in prices for the New Year holidays, Anton Fomin does not exclude.
Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
What prevents a rapid decline in prices
Retailers are always looking for opportunities to offer consumers goods at the most favorable prices, the chairman of the Presidium of the Association of Retail Companies (ACORT) previously told Izvestia Stanislav Bogdanov. The reaction to changes in the exchange rate for all goods is different — the transfer effect does not affect immediately. Perishable goods, imported fruits and vegetables can react the fastest to the strengthening of the ruble, he noted.
— In the segment of household appliances and electronics, stocks have been formed up to 1.5–2 months only for some categories, and current new items are purchased at the current exchange rate, so a number of items may become cheaper, — said Stanislav Bogdanov. — The situation is different for groups of long-term storage goods, such as imported wines, cheeses, bananas, tangerines or coffee. Here, the impact of the exchange rate is reflected with a delay of several months due to the long logistical leverage and the long-term nature of contracts.
The strengthening of the ruble does not mean an immediate reduction in import prices — the gap between changes in the exchange rate and price tags on shelves can be up to six months, added Sergey Polovnikov, head of the Content-Review project. However, no one can guarantee that prices will decrease, because no one can say whether the dollar will go up or down tomorrow, he explained.
According to him, it can take a lot of time for classical retailers to review prices, the "gray" market almost immediately reacts to changes in exchange rates. But we must understand that according to the "gray" schemes, hundreds and thousands of units of goods are imported into the Russian Federation less than classic offline retail does with parallel imports officially sanctioned by the state, the expert added.
"Firstly, the goods were purchased at the exchange rate that was one to four months ago, and retailers compensate for the actual costs in order to get enough for new purchases, rather than selling, relatively speaking, 100 rubles at 85," explained a source in the retail market. — Secondly, market players are not sure that the strengthening of the ruble is serious and for a long time, and they insure the risks.
Thirdly, the high key rate also forces entrepreneurs to maximize revenue because there is no cheap money on the market for purchases, marketing and development, the Izvestia interlocutor noted. According to him, in addition to exchange rates, logistics strongly affects the retail price, and while sanctions remain in place, it generally does not improve even with the strengthening of the ruble. Prices are unlikely to go down frontally in the foreseeable future, at least without a significant simplification of logistics and the anti—Russian sanctions regime in general, he added. Rather, retailers will use point-discount mechanisms and fintech solutions to help retain customers, he believes.
How long does it take to deliver goods from abroad
— The real economy of the food industry is very different from electronic trading and stock market quotations. Today, it takes from one to five months to ship goods from abroad. At the same time, retail chains coordinate price adjustments from a month to six months and make payments for delivered products with a delay of up to 40 days. Therefore, all these costs should be taken into account in the price," Dmitry Vostrikov, executive director of the Rusprodsoyuz association, told Izvestia.
The "cardiogram" of exchange rates is changing so fast that the real economy cannot keep up with these changes in any way, he noted.
— If we had an indicative price change with retail: the price rose by 5% for the manufacturer, which means that the seller also rose by 5% automatically, then we could see fluctuations both up and down. But this is not happening," Dmitry Vostrikov points out.
According to him, the situation is complicated by the labeling system, which has added two to three weeks to the delivery time of foreign goods to Russia and increased import duties on a number of food products and raw materials from unfriendly countries by 10% from January 1, 2025.
Food prices do not directly depend on currency fluctuations: there is, of course, a connection, but rather an indirect one, so it will not be possible to quickly see changes in the cost of products, said Sergey Yushin, head of the executive Committee of the National Meat Association.
"As a rule, businesses enter into long—term contracts with foreign companies, which record significant volumes of supplies and the cost of products, which allows them to stably import everything they need to Russia," he explained.
Moreover, world prices depend both on the balance of global supply and demand, and on stock market quotations, for example, for grain or other products. Also, in the structure of the retail price, companies take into account the logistical component, which is influenced not only by the price of the currency.
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