Income, but: a strong ruble will lead to a budget loss of almost 2 trillion
A strong ruble will lead to a budget loss of almost 2 trillion, experts interviewed by Izvestia predict. This will happen if the exchange rate remains at current levels. The fact is that oil and gas revenues are linked to the exchange rate. The authorities have set the dollar value at 96.5 rubles in the financial plan for this year. However, since the beginning of 2025, against the background of negotiations between Russia and the United States, the Russian currency has significantly strengthened - by almost 20%, now the "American" is worth 84 rubles. Due to the decrease in the average dollar exchange rate by 1 ruble, the annual revenues of the treasury of the Russian Federation are reduced by about 100-160 billion. How the Russian currency will continue to behave and who else does not benefit from a strong ruble is in the Izvestia article.
How much will the Russian treasury lose due to the strengthening of the ruble in 2025
The Ministry of Finance, based on the September macro forecast of the Ministry of Economy, budgeted for the 2025th dollar exchange rate of 96.5 rubles. But in the second half of February this year, the ruble began to strengthen after the first news about a possible de-escalation of the Ukrainian conflict and negotiations between Russia and the United States. So, according to the Central Bank, if we compare the current figure with January 1, the dollar has dropped by almost 19% to 84 rubles.
As a rule, oil and gas revenues are linked to its exchange rate. Due to the weakening of the "American dollar" by 1 ruble, annual revenues to the budget of the Russian Federation decrease by 150-160 billion, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global. That is, if we assume that the dollar exchange rate will average about 84 rubles, then the budget may not receive 1.8–2 trillion rubles. Earlier, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov also spoke about the dependence of income on the exchange rate. However, according to his estimates, a change in the exchange rate by 1 ruble leads to a decrease in revenue by 100 billion.
Currently, the share of oil and gas revenues in the 2025 budget is 27.1% (about 10.9 trillion), said independent expert Andrei Barkhota. According to his estimates, due to the strengthening of the ruble, losses can range from 15% to 25% of export revenues, that is, up to 2.7 trillion.
Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic analysis department at Finam, explained: if by the end of the year the average price of Urals oil is around $60/bbl, and the dollar exchange rate is about 85 rubles/$, then the shortfall in oil and gas revenues may amount to 2 trillion or even more.
Nevertheless, in early December, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov stressed that the federal budget would be executed at any exchange rate of the national currency — Russia has reserves, so the authorities are ready for any changes in the situation. Izvestia sent a request to the Ministry of Finance about which alternative scenario for the ruble exchange rate was considered when forming the treasury draft.
In addition, since the beginning of the year, the average dollar exchange rate has been 97.7 rubles, so in the first quarter of 2025, one should not expect a decline in oil and gas revenues precisely because of the ruble exchange rate, Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Finance Global believes. The situation will depend on the further level of the national currency until the end of December.
Why has the ruble strengthened and what will be the exchange rate in 2025
For many years, the geopolitical risks of investing in the Russian economy have been embedded in the ruble exchange rate, explained Mikhail Zeltser, an expert on the stock market at BCS World of Investments. Recently, this discount has collapsed, as the news background indicates a warming of relations between the Russian Federation and the United States and a possible de-escalation of the Ukrainian conflict, which should not only support the country's economy, but also strengthen its international position.
In addition, the Central Bank is gradually improving its estimates of the balance of payments, Natalia Pyrieva, an analyst at Cifra Broker, recalled. This means that the country is exporting more and importing less and less — because of this, the inflow of currency into the Russian Federation is higher than the outflow.
In addition, in the period from March 7 to April 4, the volume of sales of yuan by the Russian authorities increased to an amount equivalent to 5.96 billion rubles per day, Finam added. This also ensures a stable inflow of foreign currency to the Russian market.
— As a result, the volume of currency supply remains high with moderately weak demand. Combined with a positive news background, this contributes to the strengthening of the ruble," concluded Natalia Pyrieva.
Nevertheless, as early as the beginning of the second quarter, the ruble may weaken to 85 per dollar, BCS World of Investments clarified. The exchange rate will be affected by a decrease in revenues from the supply of Russian goods and services abroad. So, at the end of each month, exporters transfer part of their foreign exchange earnings into rubles to pay taxes.
The trend towards the strengthening of the ruble will not last long, they say in "Digital Broker". Exports from the Russian Federation will begin to recover after a seasonal weakening in January–February, which will increase the outflow of currency from the country. In addition, Brent prices have decreased by more than 10% since the beginning of the year (while Russian hydrocarbons are now being sold at a discount), which may further reduce the income of exporters. In the near future, the ruble will resume its movement to the level of 90 per dollar, the company's experts believe.
This trend may be supported by a possible reversal of the Central Bank's policy in June, Mikhail Zeltser believes. This month, the regulator may decide to reduce the key rate, which currently stands at 21%. The experts interviewed by Izvestia also agreed that such a scenario is quite likely.
Who will win because of the strong ruble exchange rate
The average dollar exchange rate for the year will be 93-95 rubles, estimated Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Finance Global. In this case, the budget losses from the strengthening of the national currency will not exceed half a trillion.
— The constant volatility of the national currency exchange rate makes it difficult to assess the lost budget revenues. With an increase in the value of the ruble, export revenues may decrease — it also depends on the elasticity of demand for goods shipped abroad," said Svetlana Frumina, Acting Head of the Department of Global Financial Markets and Fintech at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.
At the same time, if the ruble strengthens for a long time, and Russian exports do not become cheaper, suppliers from other sectors of the economy may suffer, for example, mineral fertilizers and agricultural products, Natalia Milchakova believes.
Nevertheless, the Russian economy can partly benefit from the strengthening of the ruble. The costs of companies that depend on foreign supplies will decrease, Svetlana Frumina is sure. Technological and consumer imports account for up to 40% of the turnover, so the increased national currency will strengthen the position of manufacturers from Russia who use foreign components.
— Also, the strengthening of the ruble will increase the competitiveness and profitability of many companies operating mainly in the domestic market. This can lead to an increase in their profits and, as a result, an increase in tax revenues to the budget," she believes.
In the future, the authorities want to reduce the share of oil and gas revenues in the budget structure. So, in 2025, this revenue item accounts for 27.1% of the total volume — for comparison, in 2019 this figure was 39.3%. Svetlana Frumina from Plekhanov Russian University of Economics added: it is planned that by 2027 it will be possible to reduce such revenues to 22.6%.
In addition, most of the settlements in international transactions are already carried out in national monetary units, said Olga Belenkaya, Head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam. This will allow us to gradually move towards the formation of a financial plan without regard to the course.
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