It's time to enter: Norway is being pushed to join the European Union

A powerful pro-European lobby in Norway is promoting the idea of its joining the European Union against the background of trade wars with the United States, the Russian Embassy told Izvestia. Oslo remains an EU partner and coordinates its foreign and defense policy with Brussels, the European Commission told Izvestia. The Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister announced the possibility of holding a referendum on membership in the union in 10 years. Previously, the Norwegians had already rejected joining this association twice. Who is interested in Oslo's membership in the EU and why many Norwegians are opposed to it — in the Izvestia article.

What forces are driving Norwegians towards the EU

A powerful lobby has developed in Norway, which uses the contradictions between the United States and the EU to promote the idea of Oslo's membership in the European Union, the Russian Embassy in Norway told Izvestia.

"The powerful pro—EU lobby in Norway is trying to use the escalating trade war between Washington and Brussels to its advantage, purposefully whipping up panic through the media and offering a solution — to formalize the country's membership in the EU as soon as possible," they said.

In late February, Norwegian Deputy Foreign Minister Maria Varteressian said that holding a new referendum on the country's accession to the EU was "realistic," but not in the coming years, but in 10 years. There is a growing understanding and support for closer cooperation with the EU in the country, the politician noted.

Currently, cooperation between Brussels and Oslo is carried out through the European Economic Area (which entered into force in 1994), as well as bilateral agreements, Anitta Hipper, an official representative of the European Commission, told Izvestia. Brussels declined to comment on the prospects for developing relations with Oslo.

— Norway maintains close relations with the EU within the framework of the Agreement on the European Economic Area and a number of other bilateral agreements. At this stage, we cannot share details," the EC told Izvestia.

Oslo and Brussels are economically connected: 67.5% of Norwegian exports go to EU countries, according to data from the European Commission. In 2023, the union imported €119 billion worth of goods from the kingdom and shipped €61.7 billion. Oslo is the largest exporter of fish and aquaculture to the EU, and gas accounts for more than 53% of Norwegian exports to Europe. Oslo benefited from the explosion of the Nord Stream pipeline and the EU's desire to reduce purchases of Russian natural gas. In 2023, Norway covered 30% of the EU's total gas consumption, while in 2021, Oslo covered 23% of the EU's natural gas needs.

In terms of energy supplies, Norway is a competitor to the United States, which supplied almost half of its LNG volumes to Europe in 2023. In addition, Oslo will suffer from the unfolding trade war between the US and the EU. Recall that in February, Donald Trump said: Washington has already decided to impose customs duties of 25% on imports of goods from the EU.

Norwegian Prime Minister Gar Stere noted that the trade war between America and Europe would negatively affect the Norwegian economy. He stressed that Oslo will work in contact with the EC and help Norwegian exporters who will be affected by the US restrictions. Norway is trying to avoid falling under the retaliatory EU restrictions that have already been announced in Brussels. That is why the voices for Oslo's joining the union are growing stronger in order to avoid attacks from two sides.

In addition to the economy, Norway coordinates its foreign and defense policy with the EU, the EC told Izvestia. Oslo joined the anti-Russian sanctions and continues to support Ukraine. Since the beginning of its work, Norway has financed Kiev for $ 5.3 billion, the total amount of assistance in 2025 will be almost $8 billion. Do not forget that the country is one of the founders of NATO, unlike neighboring Sweden, which has long maintained neutrality.

Against the background of geopolitical events, in particular the Ukrainian crisis and the emerging split between the United States, led by the new administration of Donald Trump, and the European Union, a new round of discussions has begun in Norway about the need for the kingdom to join the EU, Nikita Lipunov, a junior researcher at MGIMO, told Izvestia.

Why is the majority of Norwegians against joining the EU

The number of supporters of Norway's accession to the Union is now growing. Back in 2016, only 19.6% of Norwegians supported this idea, in 2019 they were already 28%, in 2022 - 35%. According to opinion polls for March, the number of supporters of the European way has already reached 40%. The share of opponents decreased from 70 to 45-49%. If this trend continues, the number of Eurosceptics and Europhiles may equal in the coming years.

However, so far there are more opponents of joining the EU than supporters. None of the Norwegian parties has the support of the parliamentary majority, so they are forced to join a coalition. The issue of joining the EU goes beyond ideological boundaries, and Norwegian politicians cannot agree. For example, in February, the Center Party left the ruling coalition due to its refusal to comply with EU energy directives.

The next parliamentary elections will be held in September, the outcome of which will largely determine the fate of a possible referendum on EU membership.

— However, the majority of Norwegians still oppose joining the EU. In this regard, the leaders of the country's two leading political forces — the ruling Workers' Party and the right—wing conservative Heire - have already announced that they will not raise the issue of holding a new referendum on Norway's European integration, not only during the election campaign, but also during the next parliamentary period (2025-2029), so as not to exacerbate the polarization of society on this issue. the topic," the Russian Embassy in Oslo told Izvestia.

Political polarization has already prevented Norway from joining the EU twice. At first, in 1972, 53% of Norwegians voted against the country's accession to the European Economic Community. In 1994, 52.1% of voters rejected the EU application with a turnout of almost 90%. This was preceded by a heated debate: Supporters of the accession emphasized economic benefits, while opponents were concerned about the issue of the country's sovereignty and the future of its national wealth. Most of the adherents of the European choice turned out to be in the capital, Oslo, while the northern territories were definitely against it.

There are several important reasons for Norwegians' reluctance to join the EU. First, the country will have to join the union's common fisheries policy and accept European catch quotas. Currently, this issue has been resolved on the basis of bilateral agreements, but after joining the EU, Oslo will have fewer opportunities to protect its interests.

Secondly, Norway has a high gross per capita income (third in the world, according to data for 2023), therefore, membership fees for Oslo will be higher.

On the other hand, joining the EU will give Norway a place at the negotiating table within the European Union, allowing it to influence the decision-making process in the structures of the association. EU membership will also give Norway the opportunity to reduce the potential damage from European trade wars with the United States. The issue of accession will depend on the dynamics surrounding the Ukrainian crisis, as well as the state of transatlantic relations under Trump.

Nikita Lipunov, a junior researcher at MGIMO, did not rule out the possibility of holding a referendum on joining the EU in the foreseeable future. Discussions are really active now, and more and more political forces support this idea, but there are still more opponents of membership among the population than supporters.

For the EU itself, Norway's accession is also beneficial, unlike the accession of the countries of the Western Balkans, Ukraine or Moldova. Norway is a rich country with large reserves of natural resources necessary for Brussels and a prosperous population. The EU will be able to increase its budget thanks to Oslo's accession, rather than spending it on helping new members in the Balkans and Eastern Europe.

The political effect is also important: Norway's accession will show that the EU continues to develop and expand, and remains one of the centers of attraction. Brussels needs this especially against the background of the internal crisis and division due to the Ukrainian conflict and strained relations with the United States.