You have to pay for the goods: trade between Russia and the United States may double in 2025.

The trade turnover between Russia and the United States could double to $8 billion by the end of 2025, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. However, this figure will still be relatively small compared to the figure recorded in trade with Europe, which exceeded $140 billion last year. Positive developments may occur after the telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump on March 18, during which the presidents discussed economic cooperation, among other things. The Russian Federation is able to resume supplies of fuel and metals overseas, and the United States is able to send us equipment and components. What will happen to the sanctions regime in 2025 is in the Izvestia article.

What economic issues did Putin and Trump discuss on March 18

On March 18, the Presidents of Russia and the United States, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, had a telephone conversation that focused not only on the international agenda. The Kremlin's website clarified that the two leaders discussed, among other things, the prospects for mutually beneficial cooperation in the economy and energy.

The American president also shared the details of the conversation: "We don't have much trade with Russia, but they would like to increase it, and so would we. They have valuable resources, including significant reserves of rare earth metals. Russia has a huge territory, the largest in the world. And there are resources on this earth that we can use, as well as other countries."

According to him, Russia is interested in benefiting from the American economy. And after the conversation, a statement appeared on the White House website that strengthening cooperation between the United States and Russia after the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict would pave the way for large-scale economic agreements and enhanced global stability.

Currently, the volume of mutual trade between Russia and the United States is really small. Last year, it amounted to $3.5 billion, the lowest since 1992. For comparison, the trade turnover between Russia and Europe was 40 times higher last year — $141.5 billion, and with China it amounted to $245 billion.

But it wasn't always like that. Before the start of the special operation, the United States was considered the fourth trading partner of the Russian Federation and the third largest importer, said Zhanna Ivanovskaya, associate professor of the Department of International Business at the Financial University. By the end of 2021, the trade turnover amounted to $35 billion.

The normalization of relations between Russia and the United States, which has been launched in recent weeks, will lead to the fact that by the end of this year the volume of mutual trade will grow 1.5–2 times to $ 6-8 billion, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. However, in the coming years it will still remain lower than with other countries that are now our main partners, said Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global.

How can Russia and the United States be useful to each other?

The potential for restoring economic relations lies primarily in those sectors in which cooperation was developed before the imposition of sanctions, says Olga Belenkaya, head of the Macroeconomic Analysis Department at Finam. In particular, in 2021, Washington bought oil, lime, cement, stone, glass and even pearls from Moscow, she said.

The trade turnover will grow mainly due to exports from Russia, and not due to the import of goods from the United States to our country, Natalia Milchakova from Freedom Finance Global believes. First of all, America will start buying mineral fertilizers and metals, she believes.

By restoring trade relations, the United States will give Russia access to technologies, especially industrial ones, for oil production, liquefied natural gas (LNG), oilfield services, and also provide opportunities to buy transport equipment (aircraft, components), machine—building products, and electronics, Olga Belenkaya believes.

— International trade is designed in such a way that any countries, with the right approach, can benefit each other. In particular, the Russian market is now more free from European competitors, and given Europe's policy of continuing sanctions pressure, American manufacturers will be able to take a good position," said Dmitry Kuznetsov, a researcher at the Center for International Trade Studies at the Presidential Academy.

When will Russia and the United States start actively trading with each other

On the other hand, trade is unlikely to increase rapidly, as the United States is now committed to protectionism. Trump is determined to reduce the import of goods from other countries to America — this will significantly reduce the ability of the United States to fully benefit from international trade, Dmitry Kuznetsov believes.

Also, Donald Trump is currently pursuing a policy of self-sufficiency in the country's oil and protection of American metallurgical companies, so there may be a certain conflict of interest when allowing Russian exporters to enter the American market, Olga Belenkaya from Finam emphasized.

Another risk to the development of economic relations between the two countries is the sanctions regime, which has been significantly tightened in recent years, and it is unlikely to be quickly curtailed. For example, the American Congress may block some kind of relief proposed by the White House, added Pavel Sevostyanov, associate professor of the Department of Political Analysis and Socio-Psychological Processes at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.

According to him, the Trump administration is able to improve trade in a targeted way, but in general, relations are likely to remain in the mode of "cold pragmatism."

In the near future, one should not expect any drastic changes in economic relations between Russia and the United States, Olga Belenkaya summed up. She clarified that all the sanctions imposed over the past three years are unlikely to be lifted promptly, and it will take a long time to restore relations with Western countries.