Clan or Gone: The West forms new alliances within NATO
The EU will not make a collective decision on sending troops to Ukraine, the European Commission told Izvestia. Meanwhile, at a meeting with new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, French President Emmanuel Macron stressed that the two countries would support Kiev precisely as "peacekeeping powers." The day before, the head of the Fifth Republic made it clear that he did not need Russian permission to send troops to Ukraine. Kiev's allies' attempts to take an active part in the settlement indicate the fragmentation of NATO and the emergence of new military alliances within the alliance, experts say. Moscow considers unacceptable the presence of NATO troops on Ukrainian territory in any form, whether under the auspices of the EU or the alliance itself. At the same time, the Russian Foreign Ministry does not rule out the possibility of deploying unarmed observers or a civilian mission there.
New blocs are beginning to form within NATO
Kiev's Western allies do not cease, at every convenient opportunity, to show their ability to act separately from the United States in the matter of the Ukrainian settlement and countering Russia. It is significant that the new Canadian Prime Minister decided to make his first foreign visit to France, pointedly ignoring his closest neighbor. On March 17, in Paris, Mark Carney confirmed to Emmanuel Macron that his country "will always ensure the security of Europe in everything." The head of the Fifth Republic said that Canada and France would support Ukraine as "peacekeeping powers."
Emmanuel Macron, who is actively promoting the initiative to send a peacekeeping contingent to Ukraine, said yesterday that its allies are not obliged to ask Russia whether it approves of such a mission, since the last word remains "with sovereign Ukraine." According to the French president, this could include, for example, "deploying several thousand troops from each country to key locations for training" and "demonstrating our long-term support" for Ukraine.
It is too early to talk about the formation of a new transatlantic alliance, but against the background of friction between the United States and its partners, sub-blocs and "interest clubs" are beginning to form within NATO, Alexei Fenenko, professor at the Faculty of World Politics at Lomonosov Moscow State University, explains to Izvestia.
"There are already Franco—British and British-Polish military alliances, and a bilateral French-Canadian mechanism may well appear," he added.
At the same time, such processes play into the hands of the new American administration, which does not hide its desire to shift the care of their protection onto the shoulders of Europeans. The White House has already stated that Article V of the NATO Charter on Collective Defense will not apply to a possible peacekeeping mission in Ukraine.
— In this way, Trump is telling Russia: "You can safely fight in Ukraine with the Europeans within the framework of a limited conflict." The scenario of a conflict between the EU and Russia suits the new administration quite well," Alexey Fenenko believes.
It is significant that immediately after Macron, Carney is going to meet with his British counterpart Keir Starmer, who also advocates the deployment of peacekeepers in Ukraine. According to The Times, London is ready to send thousands of its soldiers there indefinitely. On March 20, a meeting of the defense ministers of the countries, some of which are part of the so-called coalition of the willing, is due to take place in the British capital.
Canada has previously participated in dozens of peacekeeping operations, including under the auspices of the United Nations. In addition to France, Great Britain and Canada, Australia and Sweden are among the states wishing to send their peacekeepers to Ukraine.
French President Emmanuel Macron and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney
It would be wrong and even dangerous not to notice that a new strategic thinking is emerging in Europe in the context of the formation of a multipolar world, HSE analyst Tigran Meloyan tells Izvestia.
— French President Emmanuel Macron has already expressed his willingness to discuss the integrated European nuclear umbrella, which is considered one of the important signs of an epochal tectonic shift in the vision of European security. The Europeans preferred to follow the path of putting forward their own proposals rather than following in the wake of their main ally, the United States. In general, the emergence of a stronger and strategically independent Europe is quite possible, but with the realization that it will cost a lot of resources, effort and time, while the Ukrainian issue is being resolved here and now," he said.
There is no unity in the EU on the issue of sending peacekeepers to Ukraine
Realizing the risks of confrontation with the Russian Federation, not all European countries are eager to send their soldiers to Ukrainian territory. For example, at a meeting in Brussels on March 17, Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said that Rome was against sending military personnel to NATO or EU missions: "We could do this in the case of a UN mission in the buffer zone with the approval of the UN Security Council. But for now, let's end the war first, and then we'll see what happens next." Berlin also spoke out against the premature dispatch of peacekeepers to Ukraine. Slovakia, Finland and Croatia also don't like the initiative of Paris and London.
When asked by Izvestia whether the European Commission would insist that EU countries receive permission from the UN Security Council to conduct peacekeeping missions in Ukraine, the EC representative answered evasively.
— The EU and its member states will continue to provide Ukraine with the support it needs to win this war. This is our priority today. The decision to send troops remains with the Member States," said Anita Hipper.
However, it is obvious that Moscow will block such peacekeeping initiatives in the UN Security Council, and if Western countries try to conduct such a mission through the Security Council, it will only be to declare later that "evil Russia" has blocked their "peaceful" proposal, says Alexey Chikhachev, senior lecturer at the Department of European Studies at St. Petersburg State University.
— Most likely, Western countries will act to the detriment of international law. In any case, Macron's desire to create a "coalition of the willing" within NATO is quite in the hands of the United States, which wants to shift all the costs of Ukraine to Europe, he told Izvestia.
Although Brussels calls support for Kiev its priority, the EU failed to agree on a new €40 billion aid package for Ukraine on March 17. "In particular, Hungary categorically opposed the allocation of €20 billion to Kiev for military needs." "We will not allow the Hungarian people's money to be spent on further arms supplies, thereby prolonging the conflict," said Peter Szijjarto, head of Hungarian diplomacy.
It is important to be able to distinguish European propaganda rhetoric from real opportunities, Tigran Meloyan believes.
Peter Szijjarto, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Foreign Economic Relations of Hungary
— The EU, together with the UK, currently does not have such financial opportunities, even at the cost of cutting social spending, which will undoubtedly trigger a change of power. The largest European countries have unsecured pension obligations in the amount of several hundred percent of GDP," the expert recalled.
In his opinion, combined with low demographics and rising defense spending, the situation in the EU is "increasingly looking like a descent into disaster."
How the settlement is seen in Moscow
In any case, the scenario of deploying "peacekeepers" remains unacceptable for Moscow. On March 17, in an interview with Izvestia, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko stressed that Russia would not tolerate the presence of NATO troops in Ukraine, no matter whether they were deployed under the "nameplate" of the European Union, NATO or in a national capacity.
"In any case, if they appear there, it means that they are deployed in the conflict zone with all the consequences for these contingents as parties to the conflict," the diplomat said.
In his opinion, it will be possible to talk about peacekeepers only after an agreement is reached. "And if the parties come to an understanding that the peace package needs international support, then the subject of discussion will appear. We can also talk about unarmed observers, a civilian mission that would monitor the implementation of certain aspects of this agreement, or guarantee mechanisms. In the meantime, the shaking of the air," added Grushko.
Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko
At the moment, Moscow does not reject the idea of ending the conflict through diplomatic means. So, commenting on the March 13 plan for a 30-day truce proposed by Washington following talks with the Ukrainian delegation in Jeddah, Russian President Vladimir Putin listed many additional conditions that must be met. This includes monitoring the observance of the ceasefire, and Ukraine's refusal to forcibly mobilize and receive new military assistance from the West.
The topic of the Ukrainian settlement is, among other things, on the agenda of the telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, which is scheduled for March 18. The White House claims that the parties have never been closer to peace in Ukraine than they are now, and Trump is determined to achieve this goal. At the same time, according to the American side, he is ready to use "levers of pressure" on Moscow.
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