Oncoming traffic: what Trump's special envoy came to Moscow with

Vladimir Putin's meeting with Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff was scheduled for the evening of March 13. Earlier in the day, it was announced that it would be held in a closed format after a press conference following talks between the Russian president and the head of Belarus. At the time of publication, it was assumed that the American representative would convey to Moscow Washington's vision for resolving the Ukrainian crisis. On the eve of the meeting, Putin announced Russia's agreement with the US proposal to cease hostilities, but on the basis that this cessation should lead to long-term peace and eliminate the root causes of the crisis. The Russian president was skeptical about a 30-day truce with Kiev if the supply of weapons and forced mobilization in Ukraine continued. Meanwhile, Trump welcomed a possible meeting and conversation with Putin, and also expressed hope for Russia's agreement to cease fire. What Washington can offer Moscow through Witkoff is in the Izvestia article.

Why did Witkoff come to Russia

The talks between Vladimir Putin and Steve Witkoff in the Kremlin scheduled for March 13 were supposed to be the first official contact between the Russian and American sides after the meeting between Washington and Kiev in Saudi Jeddah on March 11. The actual purpose of Witkoff's visit to Moscow is to state the position of the United States. The Russian president presented the Russian vision of the situation on Thursday afternoon during a joint press conference with President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko.

On it, Vladimir Putin outlined the conditions for a truce initiated by the United States and Ukraine.: "We agree with the proposals to cease hostilities, but we believe that this cessation should lead to long-term peace and eliminate the root cause of the crisis." At the same time, he was skeptical about the idea of suspending hostilities, recalling what the Ukrainian Armed Forces were doing in the Kursk region: "Should we let them out after they committed a lot of crimes against civilians?" In fact, he demanded guarantees that Ukraine would not mobilize, receive weapons, or prepare new combat formations in a month.

"Who will control the ceasefire? Who will determine the violations?" — he asked questions, stressing that it was time for Kiev to ask for negotiations based on the situation on the ground.

The President of Belarus was also not encouraged by American initiatives.: "The United States has no plan. They're probing the ground, but they're not pushing Russia." Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov recalled the failures of previous similar agreements: "The truce in Ukraine has been announced several times since 2014, and each time it turned out that Kiev, with the support of Europe, was lying." Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov also noted that the truce is just a ploy to give Ukraine a break.

The Russian position is that Moscow is in favor of a truce that will lead to long-term peace, and not one after which hostilities resume, said Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies.

— The Americans are now offering not a long-term peace, but a truce for a period of 30 days, which can be followed by anything. This also confirms that Trump does not have a clear roadmap on what steps should be taken within the allotted time to help get rid of the root causes of the conflict, which Moscow has repeatedly pointed out," Tigran Meloyan said in an interview with Izvestia.

Recent changes on the battlefield have definitely strengthened Moscow's position. By March 13, the Russian Armed Forces had liberated the city of Sudzha and more than 86% of the Kursk region, completely encircling the Ukrainian group. At the press conference, Putin clearly stated that Russian troops had full control over the situation in the Kursk region. The General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has not officially confirmed the retreat, but Alexander Lukashenko noted: "Commander—in-Chief [Vladimir Putin] did not just come - tomorrow the Kursk region will be completely liberated." The Russian offensive in other sectors of the front, including the Kharkov direction, deprives Kiev of the possibility of maneuver.

Before meeting with Putin, Witkoff held a series of talks with other high-level Russian officials. Donald Trump noted that he even receives some positive signals. In the context of the talks with Witkoff, Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov said that not only the Ukrainian issue was on the agenda, but also the future of Russian—American relations, and even hinted at discussing a new strategic course. It is curious, however, that, according to Ushakov, Witkoff is not the one whom the United States has identified for negotiations with Russia. Although there were no other names in the role of potential mediators in the public field.

Prospects for a truce

Washington's position in all these diplomatic twists and turns remains ambivalent. On March 13, Donald Trump, meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who arrived in Washington on an official visit at the same time, ruled out Ukraine's membership in the alliance and stated that "Kiev's territorial losses are inevitable." At the same time, Trump again mentioned that Washington has levers of pressure on Moscow, but preferred not to dwell on this in detail, referring to the "positive" course of negotiations with the Russian Federation on the settlement of the conflict.

Russia's recent military successes have probably put the United States and its allies at a dead end. According to Lukashenko, "it will be possible to reach an agreement when Moscow gets the trump cards." The Kursk operation, for example, deprived Kiev of the opportunity to trade territories — the Ukrainian authorities have repeatedly stated such intentions. Therefore, Washington understands that the situation is deplorable and continues to threaten Russia with sanctions. The US administration will not hesitate to impose harsh measures against Russia if it is necessary for the success of negotiations, said US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.

The United States is aware that it is on the losing side of the conflict, so it is important for them to find a way out of it with the least image losses, hence the corresponding haste in the actions of the Americans, Tigran Meloyan emphasized. In his opinion, Russia obviously does not need to hurry now, the operational situation at the front largely favors it.

— At the same time, the United States cannot openly admit this, so they diligently play the role of mediator in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict. Right now, Washington's main goal is to stop not so much the fighting as to prevent Russia from occupying even more territories that cannot be held by transferring weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which means it's time to resort to diplomatic tools and leave militaristic rhetoric until a more appropriate moment," Meloyan believes.

Trump's special envoy rather delivered an "ultimatum," said Mikhail Mironyuk, associate professor at the HSE Department of Politics and Management. It consists of threats of sanctions and the resumption of arms supplies to Ukraine. But Russia has the right to make counterclaims, for example, on the termination of military assistance to Kiev, recognition of Crimea and the return of assets, Meloyan notes.

The prospects for a truce have become dim after the reaction of the Ukrainian side to the latest statements by Putin and Trump. Kiev has presented its "red lines" to the United States, according to Ukrainian media, citing a source. According to him, Ukraine is against removing the issue of NATO from the agenda, and this is a key moment for Moscow. Moreover, Kiev does not intend to reduce the size of the army. Meanwhile, the head of the president's office, Andrei Ermak, said that his country would not accept the frozen conflict scenario and demanded Europe's involvement in the peace process.

The key question is what Moscow will get, says Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor of Political Theory at the MGIMO Department of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia. In any case, the United States wants to freeze the conflict, while the Russian Federation wants to consolidate its successes. The answer to the question of whether compromises are possible depends on whether Washington recognizes the new realities or continues to play the role of mediator, whose efforts are limited to providing respite for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.