Tsarskoe Delo: How the World's First Crypto Reserve Can Change the Financial System

Russia may have its own crypto reserve, similar to the one created by Donald Trump by his decree on March 7. We will probably have such a fund in the next three to five years, but only in a positive scenario: if the US experience proves successful and our Central Bank softens its attitude towards digital assets, experts interviewed by Izvestia gave this forecast. In addition to bitcoin, four more digital coins are planned to be introduced into the world's first crypto reserve. So far, its volume is rather symbolic — about $17 billion, which is several times lower than American savings in dollars, but this is already fundamental support for the global crypto market. At the moment, bitcoin has sunk a little, as the United States does not intend to buy large volumes in the reserve fund, but in the coming weeks it may break a historical record and exceed $ 110 thousand.

Why do we need a crypto reserve in the USA?

On March 7, Donald Trump signed a decree on the creation of a strategic reserve in cryptocurrency. As the American president stated earlier this week, in addition to bitcoin, the fund should include other assets — Ethereum, Cardano, Solana and Ripple.

New coins will not be purchased for this purpose — the crypto reserve will include funds already owned by the United States, said businessman David Sachs, appointed "tsar" (real name of the position - "Izvestia") of artificial intelligence and cryptocurrencies in the White House. We are talking about bitcoins that were confiscated from the attackers. Their amount is estimated at 200 thousand (at the current exchange rate — $ 17 billion), but a detailed audit has never been conducted.

Despite the big news, the volume of the crypto fund is still very small compared to the total reserves of the United States: $17 billion versus $8 trillion, Daniel Tune, senior analyst at the AMCH investment platform, estimated.

The bill proposed by Trump provides for the purchase of 1 million bitcoins in the next five years, which will require approximately $56 billion, said Denis Astafyev, founder of the SharesPro investment company. This represents less than 0.2% of the annual U.S. federal budget, which makes the investment manageable and offers significant potential for long-term growth.

As stated by the American "cryptographer" David Sachs, bitcoins deposited in the reserve are not subject to sale — they will be stored as a means of saving. This can really strengthen the financial stability of the United States by providing protection from inflation and economic volatility, Denis Astafyev believes.

— Potentially, the creation of a crypto reserve in the United States could affect the global adoption of cryptocurrencies and their integration into international financial systems. It is also designed to reduce the growing government debt while increasing the value of crypto assets," he believes.

But the cryptocurrency itself is volatile and has no intrinsic value, which may raise doubts about its long-term stability, Denis Astafyev added. In addition, the reserve may not meet performance expectations, which could jeopardize the success of the strategy.

Globally, the creation of a crypto reserve in the United States will be of strategic importance, strengthening the position of digital coins in the global financial system and attracting institutional capital, Daniel Tune emphasized. Donald Trump has repeatedly stated, both as president and during his election campaign, that he intends to make America the "crypto capital of the planet" as well as a "bitcoin superpower."

"If cryptocurrency is going to determine the future, I want it to be mined, minted, and produced in the United States," Trump said in July 2024.

Meanwhile, on the evening of March 7, the US president has scheduled the world's first crypto summit to be held at the White House, which will be attended by the founders and heads of companies in the cryptocurrency industry.

Will there be a Bitcoin reserve in Russia

Following the crypto reserve in the United States, a similar fund may appear in other countries that are actively working with digital assets. In the future, from one to five years, the crypt may begin to be used in government monetary policy in Russia, Canada, the United Kingdom, some EU countries, Switzerland and Hong Kong, predicts Sergey Bezdelov, director of the Association of Industrial Mining. The struggle for digital resources and computing power between Russia, the United States and other market participants will continue to grow.

"If digital currencies continue to gain popularity, creating reserves in them may become part of the global financial strategy of many countries,— says Denis Astafyev from SharesPro.

According to forecasts by Andrey Loboda from BitRiver, in Russia, the creation of reserves in cryptocurrency is possible on the horizon for up to three years. Right now, our country is not ready for such a scenario yet, says Daniel Tune from AMCH. Digital currencies in the Russian Federation are allowed to be used only for cross-border payments and exclusively in an experimental mode. The first such operations have not yet been reported.

The main opponent of the legalization of cryptocurrencies within Russia is the Central Bank, as its head Elvira Nabiullina has repeatedly stated.

— We continue to believe that cryptocurrencies should not be used as a means of payment within the country. We really agreed, supported and are promoting projects related to the use of cryptocurrencies for external settlements, but not for internal settlements," she recalled in December 2024.

According to Elvira Nabiullina, investments in cryptocurrencies by the Central Bank lose their meaning: this is a very volatile asset that the regulator will not be able to use for interventions in the domestic market to stabilize the exchange rate.

So far, the digital ruble remains a priority for the Russian Federation, Daniil Tyun concluded. However, if the global financial system moves towards crypto reserves, the Russian Federation will be able to adapt to these changes, the expert is sure.

Bitcoin exchange rate: forecast

When they started talking about the crypto reserve in the United States, it gave significant support to bitcoin: the exchange rate grew both after Trump's election as president and after his inauguration. However, then the market froze in anticipation of real action.

On the morning of March 7, on the news of the launch of the reserve in bitcoins, its exchange rate dropped from $89 to $85 thousand. The fact is that the fund does not plan to buy a new crypt on a large scale yet, and only the already withdrawn ones will be used — that is, there will be no additional demand for coins, explained Andrey Loboda from BitRiver.

— The events will contribute to the active interpenetration of the fiat and cryptocurrency markets, the growth of digital currency portfolios of investment companies and banks, and the introduction of end-to-end mining and AI technologies into finance. Bitcoin and the entire crypto market have received long—term fundamental support, we do not exclude its active growth by 25-30% over the horizon of six months," Sergey Bezdelov from the Association of Industrial Mining is convinced.

In the coming weeks, bitcoin will be able to break the historical record again and exceed $110 thousand, Denis Astafyev from SharesPro expects. And if regulation in the United States and around the world follows a positive scenario, then the coin's exchange rate may reach $1 million by 2030.