Coercion to peace: when and with whom Zelensky will be seated at the negotiating table

The Kremlin positively assesses Vladimir Zelensky's willingness to sit down at the negotiating table, but Ukraine still has a ban on dialogue with the Russian Federation. During his first message to the US Congress, Donald Trump stated that he had received a signal from the Ukrainian leader that he was ready for a peaceful settlement. Zelensky has already declared his readiness to make concessions. Among them is the signing of a subsoil agreement and the possibility of imposing a ban on attacks on civilian infrastructure. The US president also noted that he had received a "powerful signal" from Moscow about its readiness for peace. At the same time, Trump has not yet changed his decision to suspend military assistance to Kiev. In addition, the United States has frozen the exchange of intelligence with Ukraine. What all this means for the conflict resolution process is in the Izvestia article.

Trump's message to the US Congress

Donald Trump's first address to both houses of Congress after returning to the White House was not so much a keynote speech as a demonstration of the deep split in American politics. The Democrats, as during his first presidency, staged a performance: posters with slogans about the "price crisis" and "betrayal of Ukraine," attempts to interrupt the speech with shouts, eggs in the hands of protesters as a symbol of inflation, which, by the way, began to accelerate under Joe Biden. The so—called alternative speech of the opposition was delivered by Senator from Michigan Elise Slotkin — her speech rather boiled down to criticism of Elon Musk and cliched accusations against Republicans - again, from the "surrender" of Ukraine to the "betrayal of the Reagan legacy."

The expectations of grandiose statements about Ukraine have not been fulfilled. Trump devoted only a few minutes to the topic, but nevertheless made important points. He announced that he had received a letter from Zelensky with willingness to negotiate and "strong signals" from Russia. "Isn't it wonderful?" the president addressed the audience. By the way, Zelensky's press service denied information about sending any letters, clarifying that Trump was referring to the Ukrainian leader's post on the social network.

On March 4, the United States decided to suspend military aid supplies to Ukraine. A few hours later, the "irreconcilable" Zelensky announced his readiness to sign an agreement on the Ukrainian subsoil with the United States and impose a ban on attacks on energy and other civilian infrastructure. At the same time, he avoided apologizing for past harsh remarks against Trump, including the scandalous episode in the Oval Office on February 28. The Ukrainian leader, who had previously insisted on continuing the fighting, now suggests starting negotiations with a prisoner exchange. The key point: Trump did not cancel the suspension of military aid to Kiev. Moreover, CIA Director John Ratcliffe confirmed that the United States had also suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine. Sky News, citing a Ukrainian source, said: "We are also talking about information that can be used to launch attacks deep into the territory of the Russian Federation. Questions remain around the possible disconnection of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from Starlink. One way or another, all this may force Zelensky to make even greater concessions.

At the same time, details are emerging that complicate the situation for Ukraine: The United States has banned Britain from transferring American intelligence to Kiev. As explained by British military intelligence expert Phil Ingram, "the relevant order has already been sent to the agencies," which deprives the Armed Forces of critical information against the background of the freezing of arms supplies.

The resource deal may not be enough to resume U.S. assistance to Ukraine, according to American media. It is possible that the pause in arms supplies will last until the head of the White House decides that Zelensky "supports peace talks with Russia." In addition, Trump is seeking a "larger-scale deal" on Ukrainian resources, which indicates tough bargaining: Washington wants not only rare earth metals, but also long-term preferences for American companies, Western media write. However, as Andrei Kortunov, an expert at the Valdai Club, emphasized, Kiev as a whole can agree to the terms of the United States, "but it will sabotage the agreements through reservations and unfulfilled promises."

— Now Kiev will do everything possible to extinguish the scandal that broke out after the meeting between Trump and Zelensky at the White House on February 28. Naturally, there will be maximum concessions from the Ukrainian side. But at the same time, knowing Ukraine, it can be assumed that, having agreed as a whole, Kiev will arrange the agreements with various additional conditions, reservations, some promises will not be fulfilled," Kortunov told Izvestia.

Russia's position and Europe's role in conflict resolution

Moscow's position remains restrained. The Kremlin welcomes the "readiness for dialogue," but recalls Kiev's legislative ban on negotiations with Russia. In October 2022, Vladimir Zelensky signed a decree on this. Dmitry Peskov, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation, called Minsk an ideal venue for a possible meeting of the leaders of the three countries — Russia, the United States and Ukraine, but such plans, according to him, "have not yet been discussed."

While Zelensky is balancing, Europe is trying to achieve its "place in the sun" in the process of resolving the Ukrainian conflict. French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are ready to fly to Washington next week with Zelensky to present Trump with an "alternative plan" for a settlement. However, Moscow is skeptical about the role of Brussels and London, which rather continue to adhere to the idea of inflicting a "strategic defeat" on Russia. The truth On March 5, Starmer stated that he did not want to allow a direct military clash with the Russian Federation as a result of sending the so-called peacekeeping corps to Ukraine.

At the same time, European guarantees of replacing American military aid to Kiev look doubtful. As Andrei Kortunov points out, "the EU will claim to be able to compensate for supplies, but reality will show the opposite." The German Defense Ministry says that Germany has reached the limit of its ability to transfer weapons from its arsenals to Ukraine.

— Along with this, energetic attempts will be made less pretentiously to bring Zelensky back to the White House. the White House, to facilitate the signing of an agreement on rare earth metals and to achieve the restoration of American aid to Kiev," the expert noted. — It can also be assumed that most European capitals will align themselves with Zelensky's position on when, under what conditions and terms it is advisable to start a conversation about a cease-fire.

What else did Trump say

In his message to Congress, Trump, avoiding details, relied on emotions. "We are fundamentally changing America. We won. We are going to change everything," he said, addressing voters tired of decades of "open borders and criminals who are being held at public expense." As Jim Jatras, a former Republican adviser, noted in an interview with Izvestia, the president consciously appeals to the sentimentality of Americans: "He is not talking to the world, but to his country — to those who believe that the United States was on the wrong path."

In addition, the speech of the American president confirmed that his second term will be a continuation of the course of revision of global rules. Increased tariffs on goods from China, India and the EU will come into force on April 2 in response to "unfair competition". At the same time, Trump announced the "return of control" of the Panama Canal through the purchase of two ports by an American company. "They will be our gateway to Latin America," he said, appointing Secretary of State Marco Rubio in charge of the project. On March 4, 25% duties on goods from Canada and Mexico began to take effect. Initially, Trump attributed this to the need to limit the spread of fentanyl in the United States. The White House said that duties could be increased if Ottawa and Mexico City impose retaliatory measures against American goods.

Resonant statements also concerned Greenland. "It will be ours — one way or another. We will support the right of its people to self—determination," Trump said, hinting at the island's possible incorporation into the United States. This idea, first voiced by Trump in 2019, is now backed up by an administrative resource. The president's ambitions go even further: "We will plant the US flag on Mars and beyond," he promised, concluding his speech with words about an "unprecedented golden age."