Payment visibility: The average mortgage cost dropped below 30% in early March
The average mortgage cost dropped below 30% by the beginning of March, as real interest rates dropped over the past month at four of the top 10 largest banks, Izvestia found out. Financial organizations have experienced a sharp drop in demand for their products, so they are trying to improve conditions more actively. This opportunity has appeared against the background of lower deposit yields, while easing regulation by the Central Bank will prolong the trend towards cheaper housing loans. All this should support the housing market, especially secondary housing, where sales are currently extremely low.
Mortgage rates for secondary housing
The average level of the total cost of housing loans (UCS, which includes not only interest, but also other payments, such as insurance) decreased to 29.6%. This follows from data from the websites of the top 10 banks that Izvestia studied. Conditions have improved over the past month for almost half of the players on this list.
Real rates on basic mortgage programs decreased at four banks out of the top 10, Izvestia found out. Among them are Sber, PSB, Dom Bank.Russian Federation" and "Uralsib". At the same time, the last two players currently have a minimum mortgage cost of about 23-23.5%, that is, it exceeds the key value by only 2-2.5 pp..
— We are witnessing a turn of the largest players towards reduction of mortgage rates, — noted in the press service of the bank "Saint Petersburg".
VTB and Absolut Bank will consider the possibility of reducing the cost of housing loans in the near future, representatives of these organizations told Izvestia. At the same time, Novikom and MTS banks are not planning such changes yet. Izvestia also sent inquiries to other major market participants.
Nevertheless, rates are now at a prohibitive level for the vast majority of Russians, said Evgeny Shavnev, CEO of Flip LLC, an investment company in the real estate market. According to him, only 10% of potential buyers are ready to take out a mortgage. Demand for it is falling sharply, so banks have to improve conditions in order to stimulate demand for the product.
Mortgages are still too expensive: the overpayment on a loan of 10 million rubles (including a down payment of 2 million) for a period of 25 years with a full loan value of 30% will amount to 65 million rubles. That is, the total amount (debt plus interest) that the borrower will pay will exceed the cost of the loan by 7.5 times.
Why are banks lowering mortgage rates
The main reason that mortgages have started to fall in price is a reversal in the signals on the Central Bank's monetary policy. The regulator has not raised the key rate for two consecutive meetings (from the current 21%), and there are no prerequisites yet that it will increase it in March.
As a result, financing becomes cheaper, explained Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. In recent months, increased competition has been observed in the deposit market — the average rates for these products outstripped the key ones by 1-1.5 percentage points, and for individual players reached 24-25%. Now it averages about 21% for periods from three to 12 months, it follows from the data of Finuslug.
In February, banks urgently needed money after the Central Bank lifted its easing measures. When the situation returned to normal and financial institutions fulfilled all the requirements, deposit rates decreased, said Vasily Kutyin, Director of Analytics at Ingosstrakh Bank. Reducing the cost of mortgages and loans in this case is logical: financial institutions pay less interest to their customers, which means they can offer them slightly cheaper products.
Sberbank lowered mortgage rates from March 4 to 1-1.5 percentage points, but only for loans with a down payment above 50%. This confirms that, under the guise of "improving conditions," banks are solving the problem of reducing the risks of new borrowers and that new loans will be granted only to the most reliable of them, said economist Andrei Barkhota.
At the same time, a reduction in interest rates became possible, as from March 1, the Central Bank relaxed regulation of the least risky mortgages, where the initial payment was more than 20% and the borrower's debt burden was less than 70%, said Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. Previously, banks had to allocate more funds to reserves for such loans — now this is not necessary, so the market can redirect resources to issue new loans.
— This measure will help maintain the pace of new mortgage disbursements," the expert believes.
What will happen to mortgage rates in 2025
Other banks may follow the example of Sberbank, which means that mortgages may well continue to become cheaper, Andrei Barkhota noted.
— Mortgage rates may decrease to a range of 27-28% even before the Central Bank's policy eases, subject to increased requirements for borrowers, the economist added.
Nevertheless, it is the key interest rate that keeps the mortgage price from falling the most, added Vasily Kutyin from Ingosstrakh Bank. Expectations from the Central Bank's future decisions are also very important. Depending on the forecasts of the regulator's actions, they may begin to reduce the cost of their credit products in advance, added Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global.
At the same time, Kirill Tremasov, adviser to the chairman of the Central Bank, said last week that the board of directors of the regulator at a meeting in March could consider a scenario not only with an increase in the key rate, but also with its decrease. This is the signal for banks about an imminent change in the trend in monetary policy, the expert believes. If the rhetoric of the representatives of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation becomes softer, banks will probably continue to lower rates, he added.
When will housing prices decrease
Due to the unaffordable mortgage, the cost of housing is starting to decline, but rather slowly, said Vasily Kutyin, Director of Analytics at Ingosstrakh Bank. According to him, real estate remains attractive at least as a means of investing funds, so the demand for it does not disappear completely. Developers are forced to offer discounts to customers - by the end of last year in Moscow they could reach 40%, said the head of the analytical center "Indicators of the real estate market Irn.ru " Oleg Repchenko.
Nevertheless, government programs remain the main driver of the housing market. The share of preferential mortgages in the volume of loans issued in January 2025 was 77%, which is a new record, according to data from the United Credit Bureau. At the same time, for individual players, the indicator can reach 90%, Ingosstrakh Bank added.
This means that the cost of housing is still largely dependent on changes not in market programs, but in preferential ones. At the same time, state support for the mortgage market maintains artificial demand for real estate, which leads to imbalances. According to the Central Bank, the gap between prices for new and old housing reaches 50%.
This leads to the fact that housing prices are simply not growing yet and are standing still, Oleg Repchenko added. However, a decrease in the key rate and a further reduction in the cost of basic mortgage programs may be a positive signal for developers, said Evgeny Shavnev from Flip. If the cost per square meter is stable now, then after easing the Central Bank's policy, it may start to grow by 2-5%.
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