I changed my shoes in a day: how did the US withdrawal of military support for Ukraine work?

Europe will not be able to replace the United States in Ukraine — even with Washington's help, Kiev was losing the conflict, analysts interviewed by Izvestia note. The United States decided to suspend aid to the country after the scandalous visit of Vladimir Zelensky to the White House. However, 90% of the military equipment allocated under the previous packages has already been delivered to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, according to American media sources. The White House claims that supplies will not resume until they are convinced of Kiev's peaceful intentions. And one working day was enough for Zelensky, who seemed irreconcilable, to make concessions: he had already expressed his readiness to sign a subsoil agreement with the United States at any time and impose a ban on the use of missiles and drones against energy infrastructure. Is it possible to believe all these statements and what other support Ukraine will lose — in the Izvestia article.

The United States has suspended military aid to Ukraine

US military supplies to Ukraine stopped on March 4 at around 4:30 Moscow time. The decision, according to representatives of the White House, is aimed at "making sure that Kiev is ready to promote peace." The administration of the American president reported that only he can decide on the restoration of military aid supplies, but Zelensky does not want to negotiate peace. According to reports in the American media, so far we are talking only about freezing the aid package, which has already been delivered to Ukraine by the Joe Biden administration by 90%. The withdrawal of support will mainly affect armored vehicles that have not yet arrived there.

Washington, however, does not rule out reducing the exchange of intelligence, as well as restricting access to communication systems, including Starlink, which, according to experts, will significantly worsen the position of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the battlefield. However, the main blow is also being dealt to Kiev's political strategy, which has been built for decades around the unconditional support of the West. Russia is closely monitoring what is happening. "The details have yet to be found out, but if this is true, then this is a decision that can really encourage the Kiev regime to the peace process," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on the afternoon of March 4. And this is primarily due to the fact that Europe is unlikely to be able to maintain the combat capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a long time in the event of a reduction in support from the United States.

— Europe cannot replace the USA. Even with the United States, Ukraine was losing. I believe that the war will end soon, in accordance with the draft agreement of April 2022," Columbia University professor Jeffrey Sachs told Izvestia, who said during a recent speech in the European Parliament that the only thing that can save Ukraine is negotiations.

The suspension of aid primarily affected the supply of armored vehicles, including the Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, as well as ammunition for the HIMARS and MLRS systems, military expert Dmitry Kornev told Izvestia. According to him, according to various estimates, the share of American weapons in supplies to Kiev is about 50%. The current reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will last for four to six months, he believes. At the same time, the key problem for Ukrainians will be the lack of ammunition. "Missiles for HIMARS and ATACMS with a range of up to 300 km cannot be replaced by European analogues. Ukraine may try to purchase them through third countries, but it is difficult and expensive," he explained.

Unnamed Western officials predict that without American help, Kiev will be able to hold out for several weeks to several months. However, the expert noted that the supplied American weapons did not become a panacea. The same Abrams tanks did not change the situation on the battlefield.

— Abrams was one of the most powerful tanks that the Ukrainian Armed Forces received. They were assigned only one battalion group, 31 vehicles. Great hopes were pinned on these tanks, but also because of the strategic and tactical miscalculations of the leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, their use did not have a positive impact on the Ukrainian army. At the moment, the United States itself reports that out of 31 tanks, 19 have been destroyed, and the remaining 12 have been withdrawn to the rear in order to minimize financial and reputational losses," Dmitry Kornev noted.

According to him, "if Europe does not increase production, by the end of 2025, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have global problems." Experts are particularly concerned about the potential restriction of access to Starlink, although intelligence sharing is still ongoing. Satellite communications have become the basis of command and control, says Mikhail Mironyuk, Associate Professor at the Department of Politics and Management at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.

— Starlink has made fast and high-quality space communications available. For the Armed Forces of Ukraine, this is not the only, but a massive connection that is also used to control drones (not all of them, of course). Almost everything is tied up on it, it is difficult to jam it. There will be no communication, there will be no management. More precisely, it will be slow and expensive. That's why it's such a critical element for the Ukrainian army," he explained to Izvestia.

Zelensky now "wants peace"

Meanwhile, less than a day after the suspension of military aid to Ukraine, Zelensky publicly expressed his willingness to make a number of concessions. He never apologized to Trump for his obscene behavior in the Oval Office, but said that an agreement on minerals and security could be signed at any time. Moreover, the man who denied the possibility of a cease-fire and demanded the continuation of hostilities, sensing a shortage of weapons, backed down: now Ukraine is "ready" to sit down at the negotiating table as soon as possible to establish peace. As the first stage of the settlement, Zelensky proposed a prisoner exchange and a ban on the use of missiles, long-range drones and bombs against energy and other civilian infrastructure.

The Ukrainian politician said that his meeting with Trump at the White House on February 28 did not go as expected. "It's unfortunate that everything happened this way," he added, stressing: "it's time to fix everything. We would like further cooperation and communication to be constructive."

American media, citing a senior White House official, previously reported that the United States did not see any way forward in negotiations on an agreement with Kiev on rare earth metals until Zelensky publicly apologized on camera for his behavior during the meeting with Trump.

Europe's role in supporting Ukraine

The immediate reason for the freezing of US aid was the failure of negotiations on an agreement on the development of Ukrainian mineral resources. According to sources, Kiev tried to renegotiate the deal at the last moment, which provoked a sharp reaction from Trump. The confrontation culminated in a meeting in the Oval Office, where the Ukrainian president began to insist on the continuation of the conflict and declared that in 2022 Ukraine was left alone. Trump responded harshly, and later stated that "the United States will not tolerate Kiev's irresponsibility."

The incident ended with Zelensky's actual expulsion from the US presidential residence, and on March 3, Trump publicly called his statements about the "distant end of the war" the worst he had heard, promising that "the opponents of peace will not stay long." Meanwhile, Vice President of the United States Jay Dee Vance on March 4 called for an early peaceful settlement. According to him, neither Europe, the United States, nor Ukraine can continue the confrontation with Russia. Vance called on Kiev to take real steps to resolve the conflict.

At the same time, Washington began to reduce non-military programs: the State Department stopped financing the restoration of Ukraine's energy grid through USAID, reducing staff from 64 to 200 people. In addition, the Pentagon ordered the US cyber command to stop all offensive operations against Russia. Although this information was later denied. Anyway, these steps signal a radical revision of the approaches of Trump, who is seriously determined to reset relations with Moscow. On March 4, the Kremlin stressed that normalization of relations with the United States is possible only after the lifting of illegal sanctions. The Russian Federation also believes that "Moscow's openness to dialogue rests on Kiev's unwillingness to adhere to such dynamics." The White House's public statements about Kiev's unpreparedness for peace reflect the real state of affairs.

Amid the crisis in relations between Zelensky and Trump, EU leaders urgently gathered in London and Paris to discuss an alternative action plan. Nevertheless, on March 4, the media reported that the EU had decided to freeze the development of a new €20 billion aid package due to Hungary's position, which supports Washington's current line. At the same time, the head of the republic's Foreign Ministry went to the United States on the same day to meet with the American leadership. Slovakia also wants to block military support to Kiev, which demands that the Ukrainian side restore the transit of Russian gas.

So far, only the United Kingdom stands out from the major European countries: Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced his readiness to allocate an additional $1.6 billion to Ukraine for military purchases and even consider sending his troops there. It was also decided to create a "coalition of willing" states to protect peace and ensure compliance with the agreement in the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine. On the other hand, according to the press, the effectiveness of the same Storm Shadow cruise missiles directly depends on American intelligence.

Trump's decision to suspend military aid appears to mark the end of an era when Ukraine could count on the endless support of the West. Kiev will have to abandon the rhetoric of "victory on the battlefield", membership in NATO and claims to Russian territories, since, first of all, the situation on the ground has changed dramatically. In addition, Moscow does not intend to discuss the return of its former territories to Ukraine. The Europeans should be ready to admit that the bet on the military resolution of contradictions and the infliction of a "strategic defeat of Russia" has failed.