Shop is being closed: the United States can completely stop military aid to Ukraine
The United States is curtailing military assistance to Ukraine
The administration of Donald Trump is on the verge of a radical revision of its policy towards Ukraine. According to sources close to the US president's team, key national security advisers, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth, will hold closed consultations, which may result in a complete cessation of military support for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. We are talking not only about the freezing of funding, but also about stopping the supply of missiles, ammunition, radars, military transport, as well as the completion of training for the Ukrainian military in programs launched under the Joe Biden administration.
Washington, by the way, has already taken a number of measures against Kiev. The State Department has decided to stop supporting the restoration of Ukraine's energy grid. This was carried out through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), whose presence there was decided to be reduced from 64 people to eight. In addition, the Pentagon chief ordered the US cyber command to stop all activities against Russia, including offensive cyber operations. The Trump administration is considering the possibility of freezing the supply of weapons from American arsenals to Kiev, writes The Wall Street Journal. At the same time, financing of new supplies has already been stopped.
The reasons for the change of course lie in a combination of domestic politics and the failure of agreements with Kiev. The Trump administration initially considered continuing assistance to Ukraine in exchange for access to strategic deposits of rare earth metals. They would, among other things, cover part of the debts owed to Washington for the assistance provided to them over the years. However, the negotiations reached an impasse: Vladimir Zelensky tried to unilaterally revise the already agreed terms of the deal, which provoked a sharp reaction from the United States.
The disagreement culminated in a meeting held on February 28 in the Oval Office, where a heated exchange took place between the presidents. Zelensky, who insisted on maintaining aid and continuing the conflict, was actually expelled from the Trump residence. This incident, which became public knowledge, finally exposed the crisis in relations between the two countries. On March 3, the US president said that Zelensky's words that the end of the conflict in Ukraine is still very far away are "the worst statement" that the United States will no longer "put up with," and anyone who speaks out against peace in Ukraine "will not stay long." However, Trump made the conclusion that Zelensky was not ready for peace after the scandalous scene in the White House.
They openly declare that "the patience and wallets of the United States are not unlimited." National Security Adviser Mike Waltz stressed: "It's time for Kiev to start peace negotiations. Zelensky is not showing any willingness to discuss even a temporary cease-fire, but time is working against him." These words reflect Washington's growing frustration with the Ukrainian leadership, which, in the opinion of the American side, missed the chances of a diplomatic settlement, exchanging them for a protracted conflict funded by the West.
The consequences of the scandal for Kiev and the Ukrainian settlement
Zelensky needs to demonstrate to a greater extent that he appreciates Washington's support for Kiev, Trump also said. The future capabilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will depend on the extent to which the United States will reduce the provision of assistance, former Prime Minister of Ukraine Mykola Azarov said in an interview with Izvestia.
— The APU will not fall off immediately, but their effectiveness will decrease dramatically. The United States doesn't just supply weapons. They provide real-time intelligence, manage strike coordination via Starlink and satellite networks. Without this support, Ukrainian air defense and missile systems will lose accuracy, and the command will lose the ability to see the full picture on the line of contact," the former Ukrainian prime minister said.
He also drew attention to the fact that all data on casualties and the current situation at the front are with the Americans, who "fully control the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine." The statements of the new head of the US national Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, speak for themselves, who publicly described the Zelensky regime as "dictatorial," pointing to the persecution of the opposition, media censorship and illegal arrests.
"This admission shows that Washington has long known about Kiev's repression, but turned a blind eye to it," the former prime minister said.
According to him, elections will be held in Ukraine, but holding them in such conditions is pointless: first it is necessary to restore the constitutional rights of citizens, release political prisoners and return the exiled opposition to the country. At the same time, Trump personally, at least publicly, does not insist on Zelensky's resignation.
If you turn off Starlink right now and stop providing intelligence, the collapse of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be inevitable, says Mikhail Mironyuk, associate professor at the HSE Department of Policy and Management. The expert is confident that Washington will continue secret supplies in order to maintain minimal stability of the Ukrainian army, while publicly distancing itself from Kiev.
— The United States has plenty of opportunities to make life difficult for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Armed Forces of Ukraine, undermining the stability of the resistance with unpredictable consequences. They do not want to cause the collapse of the US resistance. The quarrel between Kiev and Washington has become public, but the United States is not ready to write off the Ukrainian asset: this is a recognition of their failure. No one will do that there," Mironyuk said in an interview with Izvestia.
Can Europe replace the USA
Against the background of cooling relations between Kiev and Washington, discussions have intensified in the EU about whether Europe can replace the United States as Ukraine's main sponsor. British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has already announced his readiness to consider sending British troops there, and emergency summits were held in London and Paris to develop an alternative assistance plan. It was also decided to create a "coalition of willing" states to protect peace and ensure compliance with the agreement in the event of a ceasefire in Ukraine. Moreover, the UK will provide it with an additional $1.6 billion for military purchases, including missiles for air defense systems.
Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the HSE Center for Mediterranean Studies, sees this as an attempt by Europe to "return to the negotiating table," which Washington had previously monopolized.
— Coordination between the EU and the UK is aimed at disrupting Trump's peace initiatives and strengthening Europe's role in the settlement, he explained. — But without American resources, such a coalition will not be able to exert pressure on Russia comparable to the previous one.
Meloyan is skeptical about the prospects of the European strategy. In his opinion, Starmer's statements about the troops are more an attempt to "save face" than a real plan.
— Europe will face the same problems as the United States: depletion of weapons stocks, budget deficits and growing discontent among the population. In addition, Moscow is unlikely to seriously discuss peace terms with leaders who still call Russia's strategic defeat their goal, the expert added.
Meanwhile, the Kremlin is closely monitoring developments. Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov noted that "Moscow's openness to dialogue rests on Kiev's unwillingness to adhere to such dynamics." He confirmed that Vladimir Putin had read in detail the contents of the meeting between Trump and Zelensky, including its controversial finale. "The president took this into account. He knows all the nuances," Peskov said.
Moscow believes that the White House's public statements about Kiev's unpreparedness for peace reflect the real state of affairs. Zelensky has been blocking and disrupting negotiations (the Minsk and Istanbul agreements) for years, counting on the endless help of the West, and now this strategy is crumbling. In addition, the process of normalization of relations between the Russian Federation and the United States has begun. The parties have already held two rounds of talks in Saudi Arabia and Turkey. At the same time, accelerated preparations for the meeting between Putin and Trump are being reported. According to media reports, the White House has instructed the State Department and the Ministry of Finance to submit a list of sanctions that can be eased as part of negotiations with Russia on Ukraine.
Judging by his statements, the Ukrainian leader is aware of the precariousness of his position. In an interview, he admitted that Washington and the EU may refuse to support his candidacy in possible elections.
The main outcome of all this may be not only the end of the conflict, but also the reformatting of the entire system of international relations, where Europe, left without the American "umbrella", will be forced to seek a new balance in relations with Russia, and Ukraine will have to accept a secondary role, whose fate is decided by other players.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
