Gruesome view: logisticians are asking for preferential loans, fearing bankruptcy

Almost a third of Russian logistics companies may go bankrupt in 2025 due to increased freight costs, the Avtogruzex association, which unites 18 market participants, estimates. They sent a letter to the government with a request to delay the payment of insurance premiums, introduce preferential loans and subsidies for salaries of their employees. This will help them stay afloat in an environment where transportation costs have increased and the number of shipments has decreased. Otherwise, some companies will leave the market, which will increase the cost and delivery time, experts fear. The current state of the cargo transportation market is described in the Izvestia article.

Logistics support

Russian logistics companies have asked the government to introduce a deferral of insurance premiums, preferential loans and compensation for lease payments, explaining the need for such a measure by the risk of bankruptcy. In February 2025, the Avtogruzex association, which includes 18 large logistics companies, addressed a letter to the head of government Mikhail Mishustin (the document is available to Izvestia).

Over the year, the cost of delivery increased by 12%, and the amount of lease payments increased to 27-28%, and scrap collection increased by 75-80% year—on—year, Vadim Filatov, president of Avtogruzex, told Izvestia, citing data from the association and the service. ATI.su .

— At the same time, there is a significant shortage of goods in the market — the indicator of ATrucks analysts, which shows the balance between supply and free transport, decreased by 114 percentage points year—on-year, and reached 77 by February 3, he noted. — This is lower than the pandemic indicator of 2020. Transportation tariffs fell by 19.1% year-on-year.

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As a result, an increase in the cost of cargo transportation, a drop in volumes and a reduction in tariffs has led to the fact that the activities of transport companies are becoming unprofitable, the head of the association stated.

Cargo carriers have asked to consider the possibility of introducing support measures for transport companies, including backbone enterprises. Izvestia sent a request to the Cabinet of Ministers and the Ministry of Transport with a request to inform whether such mechanisms will be worked out.

In particular, to reduce the financial burden, carriers propose to introduce a deferral of payments on contributions to extra—budgetary funds, as well as to reduce their rates by almost half to 15.1% for a period of two years.

— This support measure will help to equalize the conditions for the payment of insurance premiums for small, medium and large businesses, as well as minimize the risk of fragmentation of large enterprises in the face of a sharp increase in the financial burden on them," explained Evgeny Shakalida, CEO of the international transport and logistics company Trasco.

In addition, the innovation will stimulate many carriers not only to increase their staff and payroll, but also to switch to paying official salaries, added Pavel Gorbunov, head of GLT Group of Companies.

Additionally, the measure will help companies temporarily free up cash flows and direct them to maintaining operations, said Roman Romashevsky, Financial Director of the PEC.

— Two years after the market adapts to new realities, the business will be able to make up for this delay, he said.

Problems with leasing

Logisticians are also being asked to compensate for lease payments under 2023-2024 contracts. According to Gazprombank Leasing, by the end of 2024, companies across Russia had returned at least 17 cargo vehicles to lessors, unable to cope with the financial burden.

— Over the past two years, the companies' costs for the leasing portfolio have increased significantly, especially against the background of floating rates," said Evgeny Babaev, President of ITECO JSC.

The subsidy, as stated in the letter, should not exceed 30% of the amount of payments for domestic equipment and 50% of the VAT paid.

— Additionally, we have requested to introduce preferential loans for investment purposes at a rate of 13.5% for up to ten years and for replenishment of working capital for up to three years. This will allow market players to adapt to changes and maintain capacity, avoiding bankruptcy," Vadim Filatov emphasized.

By the end of 2024, business lending rates increased by 60% year-on-year, according to GLT Group data. According to Pavel Gorbunov, replenishment of working capital will help launch the currently suspended renewal of fleets, which means avoiding obsolescence of equipment and increased accidents on Russian roads.

— Plus, companies will be able to develop and scale their business in new regions, including in partner countries with which Russia's trade turnover is increasing, he added.

In addition, about 50% of the expenditure part is accounted for by the payroll. Given the declining profitability of the business, such payments become unbearable.

— In the absence of support measures, companies will be forced to reduce staff, the expert said.

To avoid this, Avtogruzex requests to provide gratuitous subsidies to organizations to maintain employment and wages in the amount of three minimum wages per six months of work for each employee for a period of two years.

It is equally important, as logisticians note, to provide grants for the development and implementation of Russian software in logistics in order to set up process automation and accelerate delivery.

What is the threat of increased logistics costs

The high cost of financing and rising costs, such as higher prices for machinery, lease payments and recycling, significantly complicate the work of transport companies, confirmed Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets.

—But despite these problems, it is still possible to earn money in logistics, although profits may well have decreased from high levels to medium levels," he believes. — Deferral of insurance premiums, preferential loans and compensation of lease payments can provide temporary support to the industry, allowing companies to avoid bankruptcy and maintain liquidity. This will help reduce the burden on enterprises and give them the opportunity to adapt to new conditions, as well as continue their activities without drastic layoffs or layoffs.

Nevertheless, according to the expert, if the support measures are limited in time or are not large enough, then part of the market, especially less adapted and poorly capitalized companies, may not survive the crisis.

— According to experts, without proper support, up to 20-30% of companies may face bankruptcy, which will lead to a shortage of vehicles and an increase in prices for logistics services, — said Igor Rastorguev.

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In the absence of government support, the situation may lead to bankruptcy of at least 30% of the players already this year, Evgeny Shakalida agreed.

— Mostly bona fide players can leave the market, and it degrades to the state of 20 years ago, - Evgeny Babaev added.

As a result, Russia may face a shortage of vehicles for cargo delivery, an increase in transportation tariffs by at least 25% and an increase in consumer prices, Vadim Filatov concluded.

Now logisticians are forced to make their services more individualized. Including through tariffs and offers to attract new and retain existing customers. For example, the federal transport company Skif-Cargo, for example, has been offering customers a semi-pallet price list since the fall of 2024: retail chains accept goods only on pallets, which allows them not to rate each cargo by weight and volume, but to immediately take into account the volume of goods in a pallet no more than 1.8 m high and no more 650 kg. But such a price list is not beneficial to all customers, for example, if the volume of shipments is small, so carriers try to expand the pool of customers thanks to the half-flight price list.

— This is especially important today when there are a large number of offers from different logistics companies on the market, — said Yuri Korobeynikov, the company's sales Director.

Business Lines Group of Companies has expanded its air delivery lines to attract customers. In 2024, their number increased by 7 thousand, mainly in remote and hard-to-reach settlements of the Siberian and Far Eastern Federal Districts. The company also launched air delivery from Armenia and reduced the time of transportation by air on more than 5,000 routes in Russia and to other EAEU countries.