And more gas: South Korea may increase purchases of LNG from Russia

South Korea may increase purchases of Russian LNG, an informed source told Izvestia. According to the source, the sanctions do not affect cooperation between the two countries in the energy sector. Moreover, against the background of the beginning of the dialogue between the Russian Federation and USA there is a chance that Seoul will follow the path of normalization of relations with Moscow, experts say. In February, South Korea lifted restrictions on the supply of medical equipment to Russia, and in 2024, the Russian Federation supplied helicopters to the Republic of Kazakhstan for the first time in ten years.

LNG supplies from Russia to South Korea

The Republic of Korea is ready to increase imports of Russian LNG.

— We plan to increase the supply of liquefied natural gas to reduce dependence on coal. All major LNG exporters to the republic, including Russia, are being considered in this plan," an informed source in South Korean circles told Izvestia.

Despite Seoul's sanctions policy towards Moscow, there are no plans to reduce purchases of Russian LNG, the source stressed. But if the United States requests an increase in American imports, South Korea may reduce purchases from other countries, sources say. Australia was the largest supplier in 2024, followed by Qatar, Malaysia, the United States, Oman and Indonesia.

The Republic of Korea has joined some of the collective Western sanctions against Russia and introduced an export control list for the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, but Seoul is trying to avoid particularly sensitive areas, and the energy sector is considered such, Victoria Samsonova, a leading researcher and head of the Center for Korean Studies at the ISSA RAS, explained to Izvestia.

— Therefore, Russia will continue to supply LNG to the Republic of Kazakhstan. In 2024, our country ranked seventh among exporters, increasing supplies by 28% compared to 2023, to 2.1 million tons (by $1.24 billion)," the expert said.

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Experts see this as a positive factor

In 2024, the Republic of Kazakhstan became the world's third largest importer of LNG, and demand for this type of fuel in the republic will remain high. This is facilitated by both economic, environmental, and political factors. Seoul, in particular, is actively trying to move away from coal generation, according to the carbon neutrality policy.

South Korea depends on the supply of raw materials for more than 90%. Recently, the share of liquefied natural gas in electricity generation in the Republic of Kazakhstan has exceeded 28%, and it is quite difficult to sharply reduce it, although the administration of the President of the Republic of Korea tried to do this by giving priority to nuclear energy.

The President of the Republic of Korea, Yun Seok-yeol, who is currently suspended from his duties and placed under arrest, proposed a plan to revive nuclear energy, according to which more than 30% of electricity should be generated at nuclear power plants.

At the same time, there is still a debate in South Korea that nuclear energy should not be considered completely green, and the issue of nuclear waste disposal remains unresolved. Therefore, there is a high probability that nuclear power plant development projects will be frozen by the new administration of the Republic of Kazakhstan after it comes to power in early elections, Victoria Samsonova noted.

— At the same time, the share of renewable energy sources (RES) in the Republic of Korea is quite modest. This gives reason to believe that LNG will remain one of the key energy resources for the Republic of Kazakhstan," the expert said.

Restoring relations between Russia and South Korea

The United States remains at least one of South Korea's largest trading partners. In addition, allied relations have been established between the countries, and several American bases are permanently stationed in the Republic of Kazakhstan, the largest of which is in Busan.

Now the Republic of Korea, like other US allies, is closely monitoring changes in the Russian-American dialogue, said Alexandra Zueva, an expert at the Center for Military-Economic Studies at the Institute of World Military Economics and Strategy at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. According to her, for Seoul, Washington and Moscow's attempts to revive bilateral relations and resolve the Ukrainian issue in the future are becoming a positive signal for the restoration of Russian-South Korean ties.

— However, an internal political crisis is still ongoing in the Republic of Korea, after which Seoul will determine its foreign policy in the Russian direction, Alexandra Zueva believes.

The political situation in South Korea remains uncertain: the Constitutional Court continues to hear the case of the disgraced Yun Seok-young. He was removed from his presidential duties and detained on January 19 in connection with the investigation into the declaration of martial law in the country. The court must rule on the dismissal of the president within six months from the beginning of the case, that is, from December 14, 2024. If the Constitutional Court decides to remove Yun from office, early presidential elections will be held in the country within 60 days.

At the same time, South Korean business circles have been waiting for the lifting of Western sanctions restrictions over the past three years, so there are prospects for restoring trade and economic ties. On the issue of relations with Moscow, Seoul will primarily focus on the results of the upcoming talks between the leaders of Russia and the United States, the expert added.

The republic confirms its interest in maintaining trade and economic ties with the Russian Federation, as well as their diversification due to new opportunities opened up in the Russian market due to the departure of Western brands, said href="https://iz.ru/1828985/anastasiia-kostina/edinstvennye-kto-vedet-sebia-zdes-nedruzhestvenno-eto-diplomaty-riada-zapadnykh-stran " target="_blank">previously "Izvestia" Russian Ambassador to Seoul Georgy Zinoviev. In particular, the supply of goods from the South Korean food and chemical industries, cosmetics, and medical products is increasing.

South Korea lifted restrictions on the supply of medical equipment to Russia in February this year. In addition, last year, for the first time in ten years, the Russian Federation supplied helicopters to the Republic of Kazakhstan.

South Korea may be interested in improving relations against the background of rapprochement Moscow with Pyongyang. The Russian president Vladimir Putin earlier assured Seoul that they have nothing to worry about due to the conclusion of the agreement between Russia and North KOREA. The document provides for military assistance only in the event of an attack on Moscow and Pyongyang. Nevertheless, the increased cooperation between Russia and North Korea is causing concern in South Korean political circles. Normalization of dialogue and restoration of contacts at all levels could remove or at least reduce Seoul's concerns.