Interest expense: every second major bank reduced deposit rates
Half of the 20 largest banks reduced deposit rates in the week after the Central Bank's meeting on the key rate, Izvestia has found out. Among them are Sber, MKB and Gazprombank. By the end of February, the average yield on deposits fell below the key rate (to 20.8%). This means that the market no longer expects the Central Bank to tighten its policy. The competition for depositors is coming to an end, but market participants will not drastically reduce rates. Deposits will remain an attractive and reliable investment instrument, and there is unlikely to be a significant outflow of funds from financial organizations. Why this means that they will not freeze money on deposits, and whether it is worth giving savings to banks for a long time - in the material of "Izvestia".
Rates on deposits in banks for individuals
After February 14, when the Central Bank decided to keep the key rate at 21%, the yield on deposits decreased 10 banks from the top 20, reported "Izvestia" in the press service of the financial marketplace "Finuservices". According to its data, the rates on deposits for terms from three to 12 months decreased by 0.3% on average.
The yield on annual deposits fell the most - by almost 0.5 p.p. in eight banks, noted in "Finuslugi". It fell to 20.8% and became below the key rate. More favorable rates still guarantee savings for six months - slightly above 21%.
At the same time, deposit rates fell in 15 banks out of the top 20 in February, added in "Finusluga", that is, someone made such a decision even before the meeting of the Central Bank. In particular, according to "Izvestia", yields were reduced by "Alfa", Gazprombank, MKB, bank "Dom.RF". In addition, from February 22 "Sber" reduced deposit rates by 0.5 p.p., specified "Izvestia" in the press service of the financial institution.
Banks do not count on the growth of the key rate and no longer lay this scenario in the cost of their products, concluded the director of the Department of retail business Tsifra Bank Yuri Eidinov. According to him, that is why they have started a gradual reduction in the attractiveness of savings products.
The peak of rates on bank deposits in Russia has passed, said Igor Dodonov, analyst of FG Finam. Of course, the Central Bank has raised its forecast for the average key rate for 2025 up to the range of 19-22% - this indicates the risk that the rate may still increase. But market participants believe that the Central Bank still will not go for such measures, said economist Andrei Barkhota.
At the same time, deposit rates are likely to continue to decline. Thus, a representative of PSB informed Izvestia about the organization's plans to reduce the profitability of its products for individuals in March. The editorial staff sent inquiries to other credit organizations.
Normally, deposit rates are 0.25-1.25 p.p. lower than the key rate, so the potential for their further reduction remains, said Andrei Barkhota. Also, banks may reduce the number of marketing campaigns. All this means that financial organizations stop fighting for customers with the help of profitable offers.
Why deposit rates used to be higher
At the end of 2024, deposit rates were growing faster than before, recalled Vladimir Chernov, analyst at Freedom Finance Global. At that time, their average level reached 22%, i.e. exceeded the key rate. However, there were also offers with yields of 25% per annum. This is an unusual situation for the market. It was formed not only because of expectations of further tightening of the Central Bank's policy, but also because of increased competition.
Novikom Bank noted that it still remains. But the representative of Sovcombank, on the contrary, said that the return of deposit yields to normal levels.
Many players urgently needed liquidity in the form of deposits after the abolition of the Central Bank's relaxation of the Central Bank's regulations, which had been in effect since the large-scale imposition of sanctions at the end of last year, according to Expert RA.
In addition, competition last year was spurred by the abolition of commissions for transferring funds through the system of rapid payments (SBP) between the accounts of the client within 30 million rubles from 2024. If earlier a person was deterred from switching to another bank by the threat of additional expenses for transfers, now he can easily transfer his money to the organization offering the most favorable conditions.
Further dynamics of deposit rates will be completely determined by the movement of the key rate - all other factors are already built into the cost of products, said Ivan Uklein, Senior Director for Bank Ratings at Expert RA.
When deposit rates will fall
With the beginning of the cycle of reduction of the key rate interest on deposits will begin to decrease much faster, said the head of savings and transactional products PSB Yuri Latanov. According to him, Russians should have time to take advantage of products with high yields now to fix it for a period of six months to a year.
Conditions for the beginning of mitigation of the Central Bank's policy may occur around the middle of 2025, said Igor Dodonov, analyst of FG Finam. And the yield on deposits will go down a little earlier - in early summer.
However, deposits in any case will be guaranteed to give a high yield not only in 2025, but also most of 2026 - even if the key rate is reduced, said Yuri Eidinov of Tsifra Bank. Rates on them will be high for a very long time, agreed Finam.
This means that it will still be profitable for people to save money even if the key rate is lowered. There will be no sharp outflow of funds from credit organizations, which will not cause a new round of inflation, which some economists threatened. This once again confirms that there are no prerequisites for freezing deposits. However, the head of the Central Bank has repeatedly noted that the regulator in principle has no authority for such actions.
It should also be remembered that the rates on social deposits are subsidized by the state, reminded Vladimir Chernov. This instrument guarantees a 30% annual yield for amounts up to Br50 thousand for low-income citizens and families with incomes below the subsistence minimum. Of the major banks, such deposits launched PSB, but other players are obliged to introduce them by July 1, 2025.
Where else to invest in 2025
In addition, in the conditions of tight Central Bank policy will remain attractive money market investment funds - they earn on the provision of currency (mainly rubles and yuan) to large companies in debt at rates close to the key rate, added in Tsifra Bank.
Another profitable instrument now is fixed-income bonds.
In addition, in the second half of 2025, the attractiveness of the stock market may also grow, Tsifra Bank added. If the geopolitical situation improves and negotiations on the end of the Ukrainian conflict go well, the value of Russian companies' securities may start to grow actively.
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