Immobility in Paris: the EU struggles to hold its ground on the international stage

Kiev's allies failed to work out a common position on sending peacekeepers to Ukraine. Another negotiation of European leaders organized by France ended without results. At the same time, the tone of statements by the president of the Fifth Republic, Emmanuel Macron, has changed. Thus, he did not rule out the possibility of a conversation with Vladimir Putin. However, as the Kremlin confirmed to Izvestia, there have been no requests for contact from the Elysee Palace. The expert community emphasizes that the Russian Federation and the United States do not trust the EU countries, which have failed to resolve the Ukrainian conflict since 2014. About why Europe does not participate in the peace process on Ukraine - in the material "Izvestia".

New meeting of Kiev's allies in Paris

The second Paris meeting on Ukraine widely announced by the French media (the first one was held on February 17) turned out to be a video conference between French President Emmanuel Macron and the leaders of Canada, Belgium, Finland, Sweden, Cyprus, Iceland, Portugal, Slovenia, Romania, Luxembourg and the Baltic States. If a few days ago, the heads of eight states and the main representatives of the European top brass arrived at the Elysee Palace, this time only the acting president of Romania Ilie Bolhogan and the prime minister of Luxembourg Luc Frieden were present in person.

Following the meeting, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda said that no decision had been made to send peacekeepers to Ukraine. For his part, Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson believes that the outcome of the conflict will determine security in Europe for "several generations to come." Canadian leader Justin Trudeau outlined the old position: negotiations on Ukraine cannot be conducted without Kiev.

After the first meeting in Paris, Macron himself gave a large interview to local media, the tone of which was not as bellicose as it was a year ago. If then he said that the scenario of sending troops to Ukraine cannot be ruled out, as long as Russia does not win the conflict, now the head of the Fifth Republic spoke more definitely: France is not preparing to send ground troops to the front line. At the same time, Paris and London are considering the scenario of sending "experts or a limited number of troops outside the conflict zone to support the Ukrainians." The other three scenarios are to continue arming Ukraine, admit it to NATO, or send UN peacekeepers to the border line.

Macron did acknowledge that the dialog between Trump and Putin is "useful," but a strong peace cannot be achieved without the participation of the Ukrainians. He preferred to keep silent about the role of the Europeans in the negotiations. In any case, in his opinion, they should invest much more in their defense in the face of an "existential threat" from Russia. Macron, meanwhile, is willing to talk to its president. "If Putin calls me, of course I will pick up the phone. At the appropriate moment in the next round of talks, I will obviously talk to him again if it is useful for the situation," he added. Asked by Izvestia whether the Kremlin had received any requests for contact from the Elysee Palace, presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov replied in the negative.

Emmanuel Macron is characterized by extreme inconsistency in his statements, and it cannot be ruled out that he will also change his position in the future, French political scientist Nicolas Mirkovic explains to Izvestia.

- They joke in France that Macron is a man of the moment. He says one thing in the morning and another in the evening. He contradicts himself on every occasion. But in this situation, he simply realizes that France and Kiev's allies don't have the means to continue the conflict if the U.S. stops funding it. Macron realizes this and goes where the wind blows," the expert pointed out.

Why the EU was pulled out of the Ukraine talks

After Putin's phone call with Trump, European diplomacy chief Kaja Kallas said that Europe and Ukraine should participate in the US-Russia talks. Commenting on the February 19 meeting of the Russian and American delegations in Riyadh, Vladimir Putin called hysteria on the issue inappropriate. He recalled that the Europeans were the first to refuse to participate in the settlement process.

- Europeans stopped contacts with Russia. And the Ukrainian side forbade itself to negotiate and withdrew from the negotiation process in Istanbul, announcing it publicly. Well, we are not imposing anything on anyone, we are ready, we have already said so a hundred times. If they want, they are welcome. Let them conduct these negotiations. And we will be ready to return to the negotiating table," the Russian leader said.

According to Vladimir Putin, the United States is working with its European allies, and Russia will not interfere in Euro-Atlantic relations. Meanwhile, he noted that the Europeans themselves are to blame for what is happening now in this sphere.

- All European leaders, all of them, without exception, actually directly interfered in the election process in the United States, it came to direct insults to one of the candidates [...] I am, frankly speaking, surprised at the restraint of the newly elected President of the United States Trump with regard to his allies, who behaved in such, let's say, boorish manner. He still behaves quite intelligently towards them," Putin continued.

It should not be forgotten that Moscow has repeatedly pointed out the bad faith approach that European politicians have demonstrated earlier with regard to the Minsk agreements. For example, former French President Francois Hollande and former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who signed the Minsk agreements in 2015, later admitted that they were concluded to allow Ukraine to buy time and prepare for a conflict with Russia.

- Now Putin and Trump are showing that they do not want to talk to the European Union because it is no longer credible in negotiations and the leaders who have been in their places in Europe in recent years have done nothing for peace," says Nicolas Mirkovic.

The expert states that the EU is captive to its ideology and is completely detached from reality, and therefore does not understand what needs to be done. "If a hammer is your only tool, you have nothing left but to use nails," he ironizes.

Europe's military contracts

Indeed, seeing the resumption of the Russian-American dialog, Europe is nevertheless trying to save face and continues to follow its already chosen line of confronting Russia and supporting Ukraine. On February 19, it became known that the European Union agreed on the 16th package of sanctions, which is to be officially approved on February 24. The new restrictions will affect, in particular, aluminum and oil from Russia. Banks and tankers of the "shadow fleet" will also fall under the restrictions.

At the same time, under the pretext of countering the "Russian threat", the EU intends to significantly increase defense spending. According to the Financial Times, the union is considering redirecting €93 billion of unused funds from the pandemic recovery fund to the defense sector. At the same time, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban said that the EU is already discussing the amount of aid to Ukraine after the US withdraws its support.

For obvious reasons, primarily defense companies in Europe are interested in the continuation of the conflict and the injection of funds into the production of weapons. The recent words of Armin Papperger, head of the German arms giant Rheinmetall, that Europeans are at the "children's table" while the adults - Russia and the United States - are negotiating, are telling. The reason for this, he said, was Europe's military weakness, which made the U.S. decide to exclude it from the Ukraine process.

There are also calls from NATO for EU countries to increase military spending. It is expected that this year the alliance may revise its defense spending target, increasing it from 2 to 3%. Against the backdrop of this rhetoric, shares of EU and UK defense companies have started to rise. According to Financial Times, the Stoxx Europe Aerospace and Defense index reached its highest level in more than 30 years.

Attempts by Macron and EU allies to work out a clear solution on Ukraine will fail every time, says French geopolitical analyst Cyrille De Lattre.

- The first meeting in Paris was a fiasco. So he organized a second one, this time with representatives of Canada. It too will be a failure. There is nothing left for them but to talk," he told Izvestia.

According to the expert, the EU's increase in spending on Ukraine and NATO, is beneficial to Washington. "The United States knows very well that the EU financially cannot pull such a burden. This will eventually lead to the collapse of the union. The US doesn't want a Europe that can defend itself. They want to see Europe fragmented and torn by contradictions," the analyst concluded.