NATO to wait: Cyprus' accession to the alliance put on pause
The issue of Cyprus' accession to NATO is not being considered in the country's parliament. This was reported to Izvestia by the opposition Progressive Party of the Labor People of Cyprus. Apparently, this topic is not being actively promoted through other channels, although in October last year the president of Cyprus presented Joe Biden a plan for the republic's accession to the bloc. However, the new U.S. administration approaches NATO differently: Washington demands from allies to increase military expenditures and is not going to accept countries that are not capable of seriously strengthening the alliance.
Will Cyprus join NATO
The issue of Cyprus joining NATO is not currently being discussed in the country's parliament. This was stated to "Izvestia" in the press service of the Progressive Party of the Labor People of Cyprus, which has the second largest faction in the House of Representatives of the Republic.
- This issue may be discussed by representatives of one or another political party, but in the House of Representatives of the Republic of Cyprus it is not considered as such now," they said.
The party also emphasized that they oppose the discussion of Cyprus' accession to NATO and any participation of the alliance in the settlement of the situation on the island. Recall that since 1974 Cyprus has been divided into a southern Greek and northern Turkish part, which makes up about 37% of the island's territory. The priority of the Progressive Party of the Working People is the reunification of Cyprus within a two-component federation on the basis of political equality.
- Within this framework, a demilitarized Cyprus would be the best guarantee for the realization of a negotiated solution and a peaceful future. This of course includes the withdrawal of all foreign troops. Therefore, our party opposes any discussion of Cyprus joining NATO or giving up any role in the solution of the Cyprus problem," the party added.
Last October, Cypriot President Nicos Christodoulidis presented to the Joe Biden administration a plan for the island to join NATO. In November, he officially announced Nicosia's intention to join the alliance, saying talks with Washington were already underway. Back in 2022, the Biden administration lifted the embargo on arms sales to the republic, which was established in 1987. And before Trump's inauguration, Cyprus managed to join three defense cooperation programs with the United States to bring its armed forces up to the bloc's standards. But after Trump's return to the White House - this issue in the public space is not promoted by the Cypriot authorities. "Izvestia" sent an inquiry to the Foreign Ministry and the government of the country.
President of Cyprus Nicos Christodoulidis
Now Cyprus is one of the four EU states that are not part of NATO, along with Austria, Ireland and Malta. Moreover, Cyprus is the only EU member that has not joined the Partnership for Peace program. At the same time, from 1949 to 1960, the island was part of the alliance because it belonged to Great Britain. By the way, even after independence, the British bases Akrotiri and Dekelia remain in Cyprus. Instead of NATO, Nicosia chose the Non-Aligned Movement, in which it was a member until 2004. Individual politicians have consistently stated the need to join the bloc, but only under the current president, Nicos Christodoulidis, has the government moved to concrete steps.
Nicosia's plans could be hindered by two factors. First, there is no consensus among Cypriot political forces on joining the North Atlantic Alliance. Nicos Christodoulidis won the election in 2023 with only 51.97% of votes in the second round. Prior to his election, the politician did not talk about plans to join NATO. Such ideas are supported by the center-right, but the center-left is against them. At the next elections, the pendulum may swing the other way, and the issue of joining the alliance will be off the agenda.
In addition, there is a clear opponent of Cyprus' membership in the bloc - Turkey. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said back in 2021 that "the accession of South Cyprus to NATO is impossible under any circumstances." A certain marker of change in relations between Cyprus and Turkey may be the outcome of the meeting on the Cyprus settlement in the five-party format (Cypriot and Greek communities, as well as Britain, Greece and Turkey), which will be held on March 17-18.
By the way, Ankara gave its consent for Finland and Sweden to join the North Atlantic Alliance only after significant concessions. The main problem was the situation around the Kurds - Turkey, in particular, demanded from Helsinki and Stockholm to declare terrorist Kurdish organizations and extradite persons accused of terrorism or participation in the attempted coup d'état in the country in 2016. Ankara has long (along with Hungary) resisted expanding the bloc to include the two countries even despite strong pressure from Washington on the issue during the Biden administration.
Cyprus gained independence in 1960 as a consociational state, where the authorities were formed taking into account the quotas of the Greek and Turkish communities. After ethnic clashes in 1964, UN peacekeepers were stationed on the island. In 1974 Turkish troops occupied about 37% of the island, and in 1983 the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus was founded on this territory, which was recognized only by Ankara. In 2004, a referendum was held in both parts of the island on the plan of UN Secretary General Kofi Annan to create a single state with two autonomies. The project was supported by the Turkish community, but rejected by the Greek Cypriots.
Which countries are waiting to join NATO
However, this time the American side does not show interest in NATO expansion. The head of the US government efficiency department, Ilon Musk, called for rethinking the role of the bloc, according to him, the alliance needs "a complete reorganization". During his election campaign, President Donald Trump repeatedly said that he was ready to initiate a US withdrawal from the alliance if other members did not bear the cost for their security.
Ilon Musk and US President Donald Trump
In addition to Cyprus, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ukraine and Georgia have expressed their willingness to join NATO. All these countries are at different stages of the application process. For example, Bosnia and Herzegovina has had a membership action plan in place since 2018 - the country is working to meet the bloc's requirements. However, Sarajevo will not be able to join the alliance without the consent of its entity, Republika Srpska, and its president - Milorad Dodik - is strongly opposed to this.
Georgia, on the other hand, has never come close to becoming a candidate for membership, despite its constant declarations of desire to join NATO. At the alliance's summit in 2023, the allies confirmed Tbilisi's right to potentially join the bloc, but with the fulfillment of all standard conditions, including a membership action plan. In the summer of 2024, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said the country would join NATO by 2030. Against the backdrop of worsening relations between Georgia and Brussels, Tbilisi's membership prospects may be postponed again.
Ukraine is actively promoting its accession to NATO, having applied to join in the fall of 2022. At the Vilnius summit in 2023, Kiev was promised membership without an action plan. However, while the Biden administration was cautious about the prospect of Ukraine joining, Trump's cabinet does not consider it worthwhile at all. In particular, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that Kiev's accession is an unlikely prospect. Against the background of intensified dialog with Russia, the US may well make this issue a subject of discussion. Especially for Moscow, the non-aligned status of the neighboring country is one of the key requirements on the way to conflict resolution.
The current U.S. presidential administration in general does not see a problem with NATO expansion, especially in the Balkans. However, Trump's main principle is that new and old members of the alliance should be able to ensure their own security and allocate a certain share of GDP for this purpose (now we are talking about a target of 5%), Ivan Loshkarev, an associate professor at the Department of Political Theory at MGIMO, told Izvestia.
- Another criterion for potential NATO members is the ability to somehow help the United States in a long-term confrontation with China, either because of its special geographical location or because of the availability of rare resources. By the way, by these criteria, Cyprus is not the most successful candidate for expansion, unlike, for example, the Transcaucasian states, which are on one of China's routes - the Belt and Road," the expert said.
Importantly, the arrival of the Trump administration does not mean a complete rejection of NATO expansion. During his first term, the bloc was replenished with Montenegro in 2017 and North Macedonia in 2020. However, under the current circumstances, Washington will support the requests of countries that are ready to make a significant contribution to the alliance's budget or are in the administration's area of focus. The White House has so far shown no interest in Cyprus, being preoccupied with more pressing issues.
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