Influence post: Israel may postpone IDF withdrawal from Lebanon
Israel may postpone the deadline for the withdrawal of troops from Lebanon if Beirut fails to fulfill its obligations under the deal. Israeli ambassador to Russia Simona Halperin told Izvestia. According to her, the ceasefire agreement provides for the withdrawal of the IDF only on the condition that Hezbollah will not pose a threat to Israeli civilians. The arrangements expire on Feb. 18 and the Lebanese government opposes extending them.
Israel is in no hurry to withdraw from Lebanon
Israel may postpone the withdrawal of its armed forces from the territory of Lebanon, if the authorities of this country do not fulfill their commitments to ensure security in the border areas. This was stated by Israeli Ambassador to Russia Simona Halperin in a conversation with Izvestia.
On the night of November 27, 2024, a ceasefire came into force between Israel and Lebanon after more than a year of mutual shelling. Israel was to withdraw its troops from southern Lebanon within 60 days.
On January 27, it became known about the agreement of the Lebanese side to extend the ceasefire until February 18. According to the agreements, the withdrawal of Israeli troops should take place in stages and synchronously with the deployment of the Lebanese army in the south. However, this process is contingent on the fulfillment of a number of conditions, the most important of which is the disarmament of the Shiite Hezbollah movement.
- There are clearly defined terms in the cease-fire agreement. Israel withdraws when the Lebanese army takes and occupies those territories," the ambassador explained. - "Lebanon is a sovereign state and it must guarantee that Hezbollah cannot use these positions again to attack Israeli civilians." So far, these conditions have not been 100% met.
According to the diplomat, the extension of the Israeli army's presence in Lebanon until February 18 was agreed upon with the Lebanese side and was conditioned by the current situation in the region.
- Israel did not decide on its own that it would not withdraw," Halperin emphasized. - It was agreed upon with Lebanon. We postponed the withdrawal until February 18, but if the conditions are not met, it may be postponed for some more time.
However, the Lebanese army cannot enter these regions until Israeli troops are withdrawn from there, Andrea Tenenti, spokesman for the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL), told Izvestia. According to him, the Lebanese Armed Forces are recruiting new soldiers, but their deployment in the southern regions depends on the deployment of IDF forces.
- What is happening in Lebanon is the result of Israeli aggression and its attempts to keep some points in the south under its occupation. This is rejected by the people and the resistance. As long as there are systemic Israeli violations, there will be resistance," Jamal Wakim, a professor at the Lebanese University, told Izvestia.
In his view, if Israel delays the withdrawal, it will be "the most important justification" for Hezbollah and other resistance groups to keep their weapons, especially if the Lebanese army does not ensure the IDF's withdrawal. A new clash between Lebanon and Israel in this case could become quite likely, the expert said.
- "Israeli troops now occupy dominant areas and control the axes of advance toward the territory of the Jewish state in the western, central and eastern sectors," retired Lebanese Brigadier General George Nader told Izvestia.
Beirut insists on meeting deadlines
Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, whom Hezbollah recognizes as Hezbollah's main negotiator with other countries, and U.S. Major General Jasper Jeffers, who oversees the ceasefire monitoring committee on the Lebanese-Israeli border, met on February 13. According to the Lebanese newspaper Al Akhbar, Jeffers signaled Israel's intention to postpone its withdrawal from the south of the country and leave IDF forces in five positions in the heights of Jebel Blat, Labbouna, al-Azziya, al-Uweida and al-Hamamis. A five-party committee involving the U.S., France, Lebanon, Israel and UNIFIL is authorized to oversee the implementation of the truce agreements, with Washington chairing it.
"The Americans informed me that the Israeli occupiers will withdraw on February 18 from the villages they still occupy, but will maintain their forces in five positions. I informed them on my behalf, as well as on behalf of the president of the republic and the prime minister of our total rejection of this," the publication quoted Berri as saying.
He also emphasized that Hezbollah is abiding by the terms of the agreement, and a continued Israeli presence would be seen as an attempt to violate the sovereignty of the republic.
"Lebanon is continuing diplomatic contacts so that Israel withdraws on February 18 as agreed. We are negotiating with key capitals, including Washington and Paris, to reach an acceptable solution," said Joseph Aoun, the republic's president.
Meanwhile, the Lebanese government has formally notified the US and France of its opposition to the extension of the Israeli withdrawal.
Israeli flag among damaged buildings in southern Lebanon
Beirut fears that this could become a permanent problem for the country's new leadership. According to local media reports citing government sources, an emergency cabinet meeting is expected in the coming days to discuss the situation.
"The Israeli stance is of grave concern. It could lead to an escalation, the consequences of which are difficult to predict," Al Akhbar's government source noted.
Lebanon's new government
Meanwhile, in Beirut, the government crisis was resolved. On February 8, the Lebanese president approved the composition of a new cabinet headed by Prime Minister Nawaf Salam. It includes 24 ministers to lead the country out of a deep economic crisis and overcome the consequences of Israeli actions.
Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam
After more than three weeks of intense negotiations with Lebanon's rival political parties, a breakthrough was achieved. The compromise allowed the Shiite Amal party, a Hezbollah ally, to select four ministers, including Finance Minister Yassin Jaber. The move drew a lot of interest, given warnings from the U.S. against Hezbollah's involvement in governance. In exchange, the Lebanese government received guarantees that Hezbollah would not be able to block government initiatives.
The prime minister's supporters are confident that this government will put an end to the practice of the so-called blocking third. Their main demand was seen as denying Hezbollah and Amal the opportunity to gain strong positions in the government - that is, one-third of the seats plus one, which would give them the option to block government meetings and impose their policies on the cabinet.
The newly formed Government of Lebanon
For opponents of the Shiite movement, it was also important to avoid the emergence of a hidden form of "blocking one-third," in which Hezbollah and Amal would not officially have more than one-third of the seats, but would be able to control the decisions of a minister who, although formally belonging to another party, would in fact be under their influence.
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