Buying and stealing: spreads in exchangers reached 10 rubles
The difference in prices for buying and selling foreign currency in Russian exchange offices has doubled to twice the usual level, "Izvestia" has found out. On February 13, the country's largest banks bought up the dollar for an average of 91 rubles, but were ready to sell it only for 97 rubles, while some players had spreads as high as 10 rubles. And some points even closed due to the growing demand for foreign currency in connection with the sharp strengthening of the ruble after the news about the negotiations between the presidents of Russia and the United States. By the end of the month, the national currency may further strengthen to the level of 76-82 rubles, and the stock market will also receive strong support. How their quotes will react to the possible end of the Ukrainian conflict - in the material "Izvestia".
How much currency is sold and bought in exchangers for
The average spread of prices for buying and selling the dollar in the ten largest banks reached 6.5 rubles, "Izvestia" found out. This is almost twice as much as the normal difference of 3-4 rubles, explained economist Andrei Barkhota. Such changes occurred after the first negotiations between the presidents of the Russian Federation and the United States in the last few years - they concerned quite a wide range of topics, including the end of the Ukrainian conflict.
Banks from the top 10 now buy the dollar from citizens at an average of about 90.7 rubles, while they are ready to sell it only for 97.2 rubles. Some players have a difference in the buying and selling prices exceeding 10 rubles - we are talking about Gazprombank, Rosselkhozbank and Alfa-Bank (where the "American" is sold for 103 rubles).
"Izvestia" sent requests to the largest banks about the growing demand for currency in exchange points. Some of them suspended their work in the afternoon of February 13, the media reported earlier. A number of exchangers closed in passing points near railway stations and in the central parts of cities - market participants decided to take a break to wait for stabilization of the exchange rate and not to sell dollars and euros at a disadvantageous price.
The behavior of banks is associated with a sharp strengthening of the Russian currency to the "American" and "European" - its rate increased by more than 5%, follows from the data on the Forex market. In just a few days, the dollar fell from 96 to 91 rubles, and the euro - from 100 to 95 rubles.
At the beginning of the month, the ruble strengthened due to fundamental factors - the temporary excess of foreign money over the demand for it. A sharp jump occurred in the morning of February 13 - after a telephone conversation between the presidents of the Russian Federation and the United States. First of all, the heads of state discussed the Ukrainian conflict - they agreed "on the immediate start of negotiations". The Russian leader's spokesman Dmitry Peskov specified that Putin invited Trump to visit Moscow. In addition, the presidents agreed to continue contacts - including the organization of a personal meeting. In addition, the US President called Vladimir Zelensky and informed him about the conversation with Putin. According to Trump, Kiev also wants to make peace.
Market reaction to the talks between Putin and Trump
- Everyone has long known that the US President is a very unpredictable politician who is hard to rely on. Apparently, the decision was made to make public the telephone talks, as the parties have already reached fundamental agreements on the end of the military conflict in Ukraine, - says analyst of FG "Finam" Alexander Potavin.
Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov believes that the West will use the retention or lifting of sanctions against Russia as a lever of pressure during the negotiations. If the Ukrainian conflict is resolved, some of the restrictions may well be lifted.
- Both high interest rates, high inflation and low stock prices are related to the sanctions and the absence of foreign investors on our market. Therefore, the normalization of geopolitics may have a positive impact on prices," said Hovhannes Hovhannisyan, director of the analytical department of "Tsifra Broker".
In an optimistic scenario, the de-escalation of the Ukrainian conflict will help restore exports and ensure the inflow of imports into Russia, said economist Andrei Barkhota. In this case, the economy will move to strong and sustainable growth - this will support both the value of Russian companies' shares and the exchange rate of the national currency.
Under such conditions, the dollar rate may well fall to the region of Br76-82 by the end of the month, said the expert. Nevertheless, after that it is able to correct to the range of Br86-95.
In addition, the completion of the Ukrainian conflict will expand opportunities for the Central Bank to reduce the key rate, said an expert on the stock market "BKS Investment World" Dmitry Babin. The tough policy of the Bank of Russia was caused largely by external conditions - the normalization of geopolitics can affect the slowdown in inflation.
The Moscow Exchange index will continue to react with growth to the progress of the issue of de-escalation of the conflict, specified Vladimir Chernov. The probable easing of the sanctions regime will increase the profits of exporters, while the strengthening of the ruble will increase the revenues of importing companies.
If the optimistic scenario is realized and the conflict in Ukraine will be over in the near future, the MosBirch index is able to rise to the historical peak of 4300 points or even exceed it, noted in "BKS Investment World". Possible prolongation of the negotiation process will be accompanied by movement of the benchmark in the range of 2900-3500 points, the expert believes. If, in a negative scenario, the negotiations fail - the index may fall into the area of 2000-2400 points.
Full normalization of external economic conditions will take considerable time, concluded in "Tsifra Broker". Nevertheless, if the process goes to the end of the conflict, the market will progressively grow all this time. Investors know that the appreciation of stocks and the ruble is just beginning and, under good conditions, will continue for quite some time.
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