You were warned: Munich returns to discussing security in Europe
The 61st Munich Security Conference kicks off in Germany, the main topic of which will be the settlement of the conflict in Eastern Europe. At the same time, this year's dialog will take place in new realities: not only has there been a change of power in the United States, but Moscow and Washington were able to establish first contact. A telephone conversation between the presidents of the two countries took place on February 12. Now contacts between representatives of the Russian Federation and the United States in Munich are not excluded. Vladimir Zelensky is also expected to meet there with representatives of the new American administration, including JD Vance and Marco Rubio. It is noteworthy that the issues to be discussed will generally be those that Vladimir Putin warned about during his famous speech at the conference in 2007.
Munich Security Conference
February 14 opens the Munich Security Conference, an annual forum that has been held since 1963. Security measures have been seriously stepped up in the city. However, it was still not without accidents. On February 13, a car hit a crowd of people participating in a trade union demonstration. Two dozen people were injured. As it turned out, the driver was a 24-year-old Afghan man, an asylum seeker in Germany. Despite the fact that the crime was intentional, a spokesman for the Munich fire department characterized the hit-and-run incident as an ordinary traffic accident. However, the incident itself had no impact on preparations for the forum.
According to Trump's statement, on February 14, representatives of the Russian Federation and the United States will hold contacts on the settlement of the Ukrainian conflict at the Munich Conference. Although it was previously assumed that the Russian Federation was not invited to the event.
"There will be a meeting in Munich tomorrow [February 14], Russia will be there with our people, Ukraine is also invited. I don't know exactly who will be from the countries, but high-ranking people from Russia, Ukraine and the United States," the US president said at the White House.
Senior representatives of Trump's new team will attend the event: Vice President J.D. Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg. Their meeting with Vladimir Zelensky is expected. Overall, the main theme of the conference is conflict resolution in Eastern Europe. It is extremely important that the dialog in Munich will take place just a few days after the conversation between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, who also discussed the Ukrainian crisis. At the same time, the head of the White House in a conversation with the Russian vis-a-vis noted the importance of diplomatic resolution of the conflict. Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth also noted the day before that no concessions to the Russian Federation are required to start negotiations on Ukraine. He emphasized that the earliest possible conclusion of the Ukrainian crisis and the achievement of a lasting peace there is Trump's top priority.
- Trump's classic scheme - inviting dialog from a position of strength, which he boldly used against traditional allies - was left aside. This may indicate that Trump sees Putin as an equal interlocutor and that there is interpersonal "chemistry" between the heads of state. In addition, Trump wants to quickly declare his success, i.e. the end of the conflict, which he promised before coming to power, and move on to something more important, such as focusing on China," says Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the Center for Mediterranean Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.
Washington is expected to make Kiev understand that European states should provide security guarantees to Ukraine in the first place. Trump has repeatedly lamented that EU countries and the UK are not investing enough in helping Kiev. It is not excluded that there will be a call to NATO members to increase defense spending and stop relying on the American multi-billion dollar injections into the budget of the North Atlantic Alliance.
Bayerischer Hof Hotel before the start of the security conference
European officials believe that the U.S. president will demand that the EU pay for Ukraine's reconstruction and perhaps even deploy peacekeepers, the media reported. Although the deployment of any contingent must be supported by the Russian side. It is highly likely that Moscow will be against Western troops being sent to Ukraine. Washington has assured that it has no intention of sending its armed forces there.
After the conversation between Putin and Trump, European leaders fear that their role in future negotiations on Ukraine may be limited. And for sure in Munich, EU representatives will talk about the need to hear the voice of Brussels and individual countries of the association. On the eve, the head of Eurodiplomacy Kaja Kallas said that she would support Kiev if it does not agree to the terms of the peace agreement concluded between Moscow and Washington. She emphasized that if a deal on Ukraine is made behind the EU's back, it will simply not work. Tigran Meloyan believes that Europe is the loser now.
- They understood, but did not want to admit until the last minute, that the risk of Trump's return to power could lead to a renewed dialogue with Russia, which might not take into account the EU's interests. Actually, in many respects, this is what is happening: there is no place for the EU at the negotiating table, and Trump and Putin have started discussing a new European security architecture in which Russia will have a say, and Europe will have to accept it," he told Izvestia.
The problem now is that there is no longer a Western understanding of security - there is a European and American one, explained Dmitry Novikov, head of the Laboratory of Political Geography and Modern Geopolitics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics. Europe is trying to somehow resist US pressure, but it is obvious that the essence of the American "recipe" is that Europeans must pay for European security. Even if the negotiations break down and we have to continue supporting Ukraine, this will be done with European money, the expert told Izvestia. At the same time, a natural question arises: whether the EU countries and Great Britain have enough resources to support Ukraine in its confrontation with Russia without the United States.
Kiev will probably have to face a harsh reality. In particular, the return of lost territories is considered unlikely by Washington. US Finance Minister Scott Bessent said that the United States is ready to conclude an economic cooperation agreement with Kiev in exchange for further material support. The aid to Ukraine will remain, but only under some kind of guarantees. However, there are no details yet on what this means. In addition, the issue of closing Kyiv's debts by providing access to Ukrainian rare earth metals and other minerals is also being discussed at a high level. Moreover, there is an impression that the United States does not see Ukraine as a full participant in the Ukrainian settlement process. This was unequivocally stated by Trump when he answered journalists' questions after his phone conversations with Putin and Zelensky. He noted that Kiev would have to make peace.
The new US leadership likely sees its priority as buying the "Chinese threat" and solving domestic political problems. And judging by the latest dialog between the Russian and American leaders, confrontation with Moscow is not on Washington's agenda now. Both Ukraine and its European allies will have to reckon with this fact.
Analogies with the 2007 conference
Eighteen years after Vladimir Putin's famous speech at the Munich Security Conference, where the Russian leader warned of the risks of ignoring Moscow's interests, discussions at the forum are returning to square one. The Ukrainian conflict is a consequence of the West's disregard for Russian concerns.
- The Munich conference has long since become not a platform for understanding or clarifying anything. Rather, it is a platform for practicing new security narratives from the West's perspective. Over the past few years, it has served as a platform to legitimize the continuation of the conflict, support Ukraine, and seek a strategic defeat for Russia. Because it was seen as the key to building an optimal system of European security in the Western sense," Novikov believes.
In 2007, the Russian leader called NATO expansion "a provocation that lowers the level of mutual trust" and suggested that Washington place missile defense elements in Azerbaijan instead of Eastern Europe. Such an idea did not resonate with the West. NATO continued to expand eastward and offered potential membership to Georgia and Ukraine. The pro-Western elites in the two countries were, of course, enthusiastic about this prospect. Trump himself has repeatedly said that the expansion of the North Atlantic Alliance is Moscow's main concern and will remain so. Both Trump and Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth have called Ukraine's membership in the bloc unrealistic. Most likely, blocking Kiev's membership in NATO will become one of Moscow's main demands in future negotiations on conflict resolution.
In the same Munich speech, the Russian president also criticized the unipolar model of the world order and the US dominance in global politics. Today we see that such a system no longer meets the interests of the entire world community, because it ignores the interests of the largest and most populous countries, including Russia, China, India, Brazil, Indonesia and others. The collapse of the unipolar order is also evidenced by the development and expansion of the BRICS.
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