The limit of sales: 90 per dollar was called the lower threshold of ruble strengthening

The limit of strengthening of the national currency in this cycle will be the mark of 90 rubles/$ - this level is possible already by early spring, analysts interviewed by "Izvestiya" believe. In recent days, the ruble has rapidly risen in price: on February 12, the dollar traded below 94, and the euro - below 98. A positive role, in addition to some easing of geopolitical tensions between Russia and the U.S., is played by seasonally low demand for currency from importers, favorable oil prices and tight monetary policy of the Central Bank, which increases the demand for savings in rubles. But the economy still suffers from rate hikes: it would be more profitable for business, the state and citizens to have a weaker but stable ruble, experts emphasized.

Why the dollar has fallen below 94 rubles/$

February 12, the ruble exchange rate sharply strengthened. At the moment, the dollar fell to 93.7 rubles at interbank trading, the euro was close to 97, while the yuan cost 12.8, as follows from the data of TradingView. For the American, these are the lowest values since the beginning of October, and for the euro - since the beginning of September 2024.

The winter strengthening of the ruble is caused mainly by technical reasons, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia. Now the demand for currency on the part of importers is low: in January, after the New Year holidays, people make fewer purchases. In addition, because of the Chinese New Year, there are fewer deliveries from this country, explained Mikhail Vasilyev, chief analyst of Sovcombank.

At the same time, the country receives a lot of currency from exports thanks to high oil and gas prices amid the winter heating season, he added. The average price of Brent crude oil in January amounted to $80 per barrel after $74 in December.

At the end of February, the January sanctions against major oil players should officially come into force, said Viktor Grigoriev, chief analyst at Bank St. Petersburg. Exporters can accelerate the transfer of currency to Russia while operations are still allowed.

Now there are practically no speculators on the market, so even such a small "overhang" of currency can have such a significant impact on quotations, summarized Maxim Timoshenko, Director of the Department of Operations on Financial Markets of the Russian Standard Bank.

In addition, market participants are playing off the emerging probability of normalization of the geopolitical agenda, said Vladimir Evstifeev, head of analytical services at Zenit Bank. After Trump's inauguration, there are signals that the conflict in Ukraine may be over - thanks to this, gradual improvements in international trade are expected.

Domestic factors also play their role - in particular, the Central Bank's tough policy, added Nikita Bashkov, head of treasury at BBR Bank. The high key rate makes deposit rates more favorable for both citizens and businesses - that's why players prefer the ruble to foreign currencies.

To what level the dollar may fall in 2025

Until the end of February, the ruble will also be supported by the tax period - at the end of each month exporters transfer currency to Russia to make payments to the budget, reminded Victor Grigoriev from the bank "St. Petersburg". Sovcombank also believes that the ruble will be strong at least in the coming weeks, and possibly until the end of March.

- We can expect the dollar to fall to 90 rubles in February, and the euro - to 94 rubles, but, most likely, even lower than these levels will be problematic, - predicts the leading analyst of Freedom Finance Global Natalia Milchakova.

Zenith agrees with this: the probability that the dollar rate will fall below 90 rubles, looks low. Sovcombank expects that the lower boundary of the trading range for the "American" will be 91 rubles.

However, then the dollar rate will still go up, says the expert on the stock market "BKS World of Investments" Michael Zeltser. Oil prices are likely to decline due to global trade wars. And imports, on the contrary, may grow if purchases of products abroad become more affordable with the weakening of sanctions. As a result, the currency imbalance will be equalized.

- In favor of the ruble weakening in the future is also a fairly high probability that the Central Bank will complete the phase of tightening monetary policy and gradually move to lowering the key rate. Then assets in the national currency will become less attractive, - added Dmitry Golubkov, the director on macroeconomic analysis of OTP Bank.

What is more important: a strong ruble or a stable exchange rate

The strengthening of the ruble is already reflected in inflation dynamics: imported goods (electronics and cars) have become cheaper for two weeks in a row, which reduces overall price pressure, said Pavel Biryukov, chief economist at Gazprombank. However, because the exchange rate is volatile, exporters cannot build ruble appreciation into their financial plans. That is, they make calculations and set the selling price based on the fact that they will have to buy it more expensive in the near future.

- In this regard, a more stable ruble, even if it is weaker, may be more comfortable than a strong but volatile one, - says Pavel Biryukov.

In general, a stable exchange rate is more convenient for the economy, as it reduces uncertainty for businesses and citizens, according to Sovcombank. The BRB Bank also confirmed that a "controlled" higher exchange rate is important for the country's budget - then the budget is better replenished from exporters' taxes.

At the same time, the floating ruble exchange rate allows the economy to adapt more quickly to changing external conditions - fluctuations in commodity prices and sanctions, summarized in Sovcombank. This is exactly the position of the Bank of Russia.

According to its head Elvira Nabiullina, the floating exchange rate is a boon for the domestic economy, as it allows it to cope more easily with external shocks. At the same time, artificial support of the national currency usually ends in periods of "deep devaluation". Also, the Central Bank consistently adheres to the policy of non-interference and does not plan to directly regulate the exchange rate.

However, in critical moments, the Bank of Russia can still react and postpone purchases of currency from the market under the budget rule - for example, such a decision was made in November 2024, when the exchange rate weakened sharply due to sanctions on Gazprombank and new problems with payments. However, the Central Bank does not completely abandon purchases, but only postpones them to a later date.