Goodwill test: Russian Federation freed convicted American Mark Fogel

The Russian side has released American citizen Mark Fogel, convicted in Russia. According to the White House, he left Moscow together with Trump's special envoy for the Middle East Steve Whitkoff. At the same time, it is still unknown whether the US side has released any of the Russian prisoners. U.S. presidential adviser Mike Waltz said that what happened shows a positive attitude on the part of Russia to further dialog, as well as indicates progress in resolving the Ukrainian crisis.

Russia frees American Fogel

Russia has released Mark Fogel, an ex-employee of the US Embassy in Moscow, who was convicted in Russia. He traveled home on an airplane together with Donald Trump's special envoy for the Middle East Steve Whitkoff. It is worth noting that his visit to Russia is the first trip of a high-ranking US official to the Russian Federation since 2021. On February 11, the media reported about the landing of his aircraft in Moscow, but the Russian side did not confirm this fact. In the afternoon, Russian presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the Kremlin had no information about Whitkoff's possible arrival in Moscow and noted that the Russian side had not planned any contacts.

The fact of Fogel's transfer to the U.S. side was also confirmed by his Russian lawyer, but he did not specify on what grounds he was released - through a pardon or by other means.

Moreover, the information about Fogel's extradition to the U.S. initially came from Trump's national security adviser Mike Waltz.

- Whitkoff leaves Russian airspace with Mark Vogel, an American convicted in Russia. President Trump, Steve Whitkoff and the president's advisers agreed to the exchange, which serves as a show of good faith on the part of the Russians and a sign that we are moving in the right direction to end the conflict in Ukraine", he said.

Mark Vogel worked at the U.S. Embassy until May 2021 and had diplomatic status. He was detained with drugs at Sheremetyevo airport in August of that year. He was accused of smuggling narcotic drugs and sentenced to 14 years in a strict regime colony in 2022. Vogel himself pleaded guilty in court.

Mike Waltz mentioned the word "exchange", but whether the US side has released any of the Russian prisoners has not yet been reported. There are several Russians in the US whose return Moscow is interested in, in particular Alexander Vinnik, an IT specialist arrested in 2017 on cybercrime charges.

"Izvestia" contacted his lawyer Arkady Buch, who said that an urgent hearing had been scheduled in his case - for 3 am Moscow time.

- About Fogel, I have heard. It talks about an exchange, but it doesn't specify for whom. Suddenly we got an emergency hearing on Vinnik's case. It happens rarely, but I don't want to speculate on this topic," Arkady Bukh told Izvestia.

According to Yegor Toropov, an Americanist and member of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, this is symbolic politically, but a significant step from a human point of view to alleviate the plight of prisoners and their relatives and friends. But he warns that one should not harbor any illusions about the instant normalization of relations.

- At the same time, the first serious result of cooperation with the new US administration and the very fact of goodwill between the leaders of Russia and the US on a private humanitarian issue does not have any significant consequences for interstate relations. Rather, it serves as a demonstration of the parties' readiness to resume active dialog between Russia and the United States, which, however, did not stop completely either during Biden's presidency - under him a large-scale prisoner exchange took place on August 1 of last year - or even during the most tense periods of the Cold War," Egor Toropov told Izvestia.

Possibility of settling the Ukrainian conflict

The day before, the US President said at a meeting with King Abdullah II of Jordan at the White House that significant progress had been made in the peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian crisis. Earlier, Donald Trump repeatedly spoke about contacts with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin has not yet confirmed their conversation, but also did not deny it. Trump has recently stated several times that he is ready to meet with the Russian leader "any time" when it suits him. But here, too, the Oval Office host's approach raises questions. On the one hand, he emphasizes that, unlike Biden, he has a good and pragmatic interaction with the Russian president. At the same time, he allows for tough measures - more sanctions against Russia if it does not agree to a deal on Ukraine.

Trump is in dialog with the Ukrainian side as well. On the eve of the American leader said that Kiev should reimburse the funds spent on military aid, and he is satisfied with the option of transferring Ukrainian rare earth metals worth $500 billion to the U.S. Although earlier he spoke only about $500 million. According to him, Kiev is ready to make such a deal. On the Bankova, however, they say that this will be done in exchange for security guarantees.

At the same time, Zelensky said that he is ready to negotiate with Russia if the U.S. and Europe "do not abandon him." US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is due to pay an official visit to Kiev this week. He is expected to discuss the possibility of Ukraine handing over natural resources in exchange for financial aid.

Anyway, all this indicates that even if the process of conflict resolution in Ukraine has not yet been officially launched and has a number of pitfalls, there is a prospect of a thorough dialog and negotiations between Russia and the US on the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict.

- So far, no details of the exchange have been disclosed, but the fact that the deal was struck with the new US administration, which is in its fourth week in power, testifies to the great negotiating potential and the ability of people in the White House to find common ground with Moscow. It is characteristic that the Russian side reciprocates such gestures," Tigran Meloyan, analyst of the Center for Mediterranean Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, told Izvestia.

As a rule, normalization of relations is gradual and largely depends on the interest of all participants, so this step can rightfully be taken as a starting point on the way to normalization between Russia and the United States. However, it is no less important whether this trend can be maintained in the future, the expert summarized.