Selling the vote: West forces Kiev to hold elections

Ukraine will hold a presidential election under Western pressure - Kiev is unlikely to be able to refuse Washington because it is fully dependent on US funding and arms supplies, experts interviewed by Izvestiya believe. Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that he will discuss conflict resolution only with the legitimate authorities. Against this background, Trump's special envoy Keith Kellogg called on the Ukrainian leadership to hold elections before the end of the year - in the coming weeks, he is already expected to present Trump with a plan to resolve the crisis. The EU also urged Kiev to soften the terms of martial law, because of which they refuse to hold the vote there. What will change the elections in Ukraine and what is the complexity of their organization - in the material "Izvestia".

Ukraine is under pressure to hold elections

The West is increasing pressure on Kiev to hold elections despite the martial law in the country. Special Envoy for Ukraine Keith Kellogg urged Kiev to organize the vote before the end of the year. "Every democratic state holds elections. We also used to have elections even in the midst of war," he said. - A sign of a healthy democracy is the willingness and ability to hold elections even in times of war."

Recently, the European Commission urged Kiev to reconsider the terms of martial law. EC Director General for Neighborhood and Enlargement Negotiations Gert Jan Kopman advised the Ukrainian authorities to return to observing the norms of the country's constitution, as the imposition of martial law has changed certain democratic procedures. Apparently, this also refers to the presidential election.

Holding a vote in Ukraine has become particularly relevant since US President Donald Trump took office. Even before winning the election, he repeatedly declared his intention to resolve the Ukrainian conflict. After the inauguration, the American leader gave Kellogg 100 days to do so. It is reported that he will already present settlement options in the coming weeks. Before that, he will probably discuss them with his European colleagues - Kellogg will take part in the Munich Security Conference on February 14-16, as well as visit Kiev and other European capitals.

The new Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth's words also testify to the U.S. intentions to end the conflict rather than continue it. It is expected that during his first European tour - he will visit Germany, Poland and Belgium - Hegseth will not announce military aid to Kiev, AP writes.

All this activity is related to the fact that Moscow and Washington are publicly signaling their willingness to discuss a Ukrainian settlement. Donald Trump has repeatedly declared his intention to meet with Vladimir Putin "at any time" when it suits him. The Kremlin, too, has reiterated its readiness to negotiate on the Ukrainian issue.

- We are also open to dialog with the new U.S. administration on the Ukrainian conflict. The most important thing here is to eliminate the root causes of the crisis, which we have talked about many times. This is the most important thing," Vladimir Putin said on January 20.

However, any official settlement is rooted in the question of legality. Russia considers Vladimir Zelensky an illegitimate leader, as his presidential term expired in May 2024. According to the country's constitution, the president of Ukraine, even under martial law, has no right to extend his powers.

- Yes, you can negotiate with anyone, but due to his illegitimacy, he (Zelensky - Izvestia) has no right to sign anything. If he wants to take part in the negotiations, I will allocate such people who will conduct these negotiations, please," the head of state pointed out.

Kiev argues that the constitution prohibits holding elections during martial law, which was declared there on February 24, 2022. Allegedly because of this, parliamentary and presidential elections, scheduled for October 2023 and March 2024, were canceled. At the same time, the Verkhovna Rada is still considered a legitimate authority, as its powers are extended in case of martial law. Vladimir Putin also recognized the legitimacy of the Rada earlier.

It is possible that Putin and Trump discussed the issue of resolving the Ukrainian conflict, including the legitimization of the Ukrainian authorities as a negotiating party, during a telephone conversation, which the US president unexpectedly revealed in an interview with the New York Post on February 9.

Could there be elections in Ukraine in 2025

In early February, Zelensky allowed elections to be held, though after the end of the hot phase of the conflict and the lifting of martial law. Later, on February 9, he said that he is also ready for a dialog with Vladimir Putin, if Europe and the United States "do not abandon" Kiev. It is important to note that back in 2022, he personally banned them at the legislative level, but now he no longer considers it a problem. Zelensky even begins to discuss certain conditions.

Thus, in an interview with The Guardian, he said that he would offer Russia a direct exchange of territories, giving up the lands that Kiev holds in the Kursk region. At the same time, he does not know what lands Ukraine will ask for in return.

"We will swap one territory for another. I don't know, we'll see. But all our territories are important, there is no priority," the publication quoted him as saying.

"In the Kursk region, the neo-Nazis who are ridden there are waiting for land without any exchange, with an area of about a meter by two and a meter and a half or two meters deep. Such statements Zelensky makes to hide the true scale of the disaster for the AFU in this direction," Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told Izvestia.

The probability of the vote is increasing not only because of pressure from the West, but also because of the growing discontent in Ukrainian society with the current authorities. It is possible that if the election is held, Zelensky may refuse to be re-elected at all and give way to Valeriy Zaluzhnyy, the former head of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and currently Ukraine's ambassador to the UK. Earlier in Socis' rating of Ukrainians' trust Zaluzhny took the first place, the second - the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Defense Ministry Kirill Budanov, and Zelensky - only the third.

Under Ukrainian law, elections must be held within 90 days of the date of their appointment. In general, there is nothing preventing Ukraine from holding them at the moment.

- Assuming that elections are not usually scheduled in summer, the decision to hold them could be made in August-September. There are no technical problems for this, and the infrastructure of election commissions in Ukraine has been generally preserved," political analyst Ivan Loshkarev told Izvestiya.

In fact, the only obstacle to holding the election may be Zelensky's unwillingness to cede power and access to resources coming from abroad, the expert said. Zelensky can seriously delay the decision-making process, explaining it with procedural considerations. The question is what the US will offer him as compensation.

- The idea of elections and truce is hanging in the air. But one way or another, Washington is pressing on for now. The position of the Trump team is to conclude a truce and arrange elections. Vladimir Zelensky does not need these elections, but he is completely dependent on the United States, so his ability to resist is very limited," Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy director of the Institute of CIS Countries, told Izvestia.

Most likely, Kiev will not be able to refuse Washington's demand to hold elections because it is completely dependent on US funding and arms supplies. The European Union is unable to fully replace them: the EU's cumulative military aid is half as much as the US support.

However, in the end, a completely different scenario may unfold - at least because of Donald Trump's well-known impulsiveness and unpredictability. While he has been pushing for a settlement of the conflict, noting his good relations with Vladimir Putin in contrast to the bellicose Biden, at the same time the US president has threatened Russia with sanctions if it does not agree to a deal. Moreover, this is not the first time Trump is talking about a potential agreement between Washington and Kiev: he intends to receive compensation in the form of access to Ukraine's natural resources in exchange for multibillion-dollar aid from the United States. The amount is estimated allegedly at $500 billion, which Ukrainian officials, according to Trump, "have actually agreed to." At the same time, how and on what territories these resources will be extracted is not known.

Theoretically, this can only lead to escalation between Russia and the United States, not to peace talks. By the way, the first Trump administration official to visit Ukraine as early as this week will be Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Bloomberg reported, citing sources. He will come to discuss US access to Ukrainian minerals.