Giving up Gaza: Hamas fears losing influence in the exclave
Hamas' decision to postpone the release of hostages held in Gaza may be due to difficulties in implementing the second phase of the deal. The aggressive statements of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has expressed full support for Israel, also have an impact. Under these conditions, the military wing of the movement in Gaza may see in the continuation of negotiations not a guarantee of security, but a threat of its own liquidation. Meanwhile, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has threatened to resume hostilities if the hostages are not released in a timely manner. In parallel, the Palestinian movement accuses Israel of violating the humanitarian protocol of the deal: since the truce began, 8,500 trucks with aid have entered the exclave, while 12,000 should have arrived.
IDF prepares for escalation in Gaza
Israel will resume military action in the Gaza Strip if Hamas does not release hostages by noon on February 15, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said after a meeting of the military-political cabinet.
Earlier, the Israeli military announced an increase in combat readiness and the cancellation of vacations for Southern Command fighters. This came after Hamas unexpectedly postponed the release of hostages held in Gaza, who were supposed to return home on February 15. The movement said the reason for the delay was Israel's violation of the humanitarian terms of the agreement.
Meanwhile, mediators, including representatives of Arab countries, are urging Israel to allow the delivery of humanitarian aid to Gaza, sources told Al Arabiya TV.
According to Osama Hamdan, a Hamas leader, Israel has failed to fulfill 90% of the agreement's humanitarian protocol. And Ismail al-Tawabta, head of the government's press office in the Gaza Strip, said tens of thousands of Palestinians remain out in the open because of the delay in bringing in 60,000 temporary shelters and 200,000 tents.
A total of 8.5 thousand trucks with humanitarian aid have entered Gaza since the deal began, while 12 thousand should have arrived. 2.9 thousand trucks arrived in the northern part of the exclave instead of 6 thousand. This deficit does not allow to establish the humanitarian situation in Gaza.
It is worth noting that the fate of Russian citizen Alexander Trufanov, who is being held captive, is now under threat. Earlier, deputy head of the Hamas political bureau Musa Abu Marzouk told Izvestia that Alexander would soon be released. Indeed, he was among those who were to be released from Gaza as part of the first stage of the deal. That stage of the agreement was supposed to last until March 1.
Under the terms of the deal, Hamas would return the bodies of eight dead hostages out of 33 captives on the last day of the first phase. At the same time, Marzouk clarified earlier that Alexander Trufanov was not injured, he was fine.
The second stage of the deal
The situation is complicated by the US president's harsh statements about the pushing out of the Palestinians to Jordan and Egypt. Earlier, following talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Donald Trump said that the Gaza Strip would come under the control of the States. The American president noted that the exclave could become a "Middle Eastern Riviera", but at the same time about 2 million residents should be relocated from there. Arab countries criticized the US proposal.
According to Andrei Baklanov, deputy chairman of the Association of Russian Diplomats and professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, the second stage of the deal could ignore the interests of Hamas' military wing. Therefore, the movement will put the brakes on implementation in order to participate as actors in the larger dialog that is currently being set up.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump meet at the White House in Washington. February 4, 2025.
- One deal overlaps with another, and there could be quite significant delays because the same people are dealing with two very different issues. One is related to the strategy, and the other is related to the fulfillment of the specific agreements that have already been reached once," said Andrei Baklanov.
At present, the fate of the second phase of the agreement remains uncertain. The release of the remaining hostages and the withdrawal of Israeli troops are under threat. According to the statements of Hamas representatives, negotiations on this phase have already begun. However, the Jewish state, according to the Israeli newspaper Haaretz, is not ready to move forward in the implementation of the agreement, which puts the further development of the situation in doubt.
The Israeli delegation, which arrived in Qatar on February 9 to continue the talks, has no plans to discuss key issues such as the management of Gaza after the war, the newspaper said. Haaretz sources say Israel's negotiating team in Doha has no mandate and no real power to make decisions. Israeli government officials, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, are in fact making it clear that they have no intention of moving to the second phase of the deal.
The Israeli leadership fears political repercussions if the agreement is implemented. This is especially true for Netanyahu's electoral base, which points to the lack of victory over Hamas and the violation of promises to completely dismantle the movement. These fears add to the political pressure that could affect the continuation of negotiations.
"The process is working, hostages are being released, but Hamas is doing so with the expectation of a second phase that will lead to a ceasefire and an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. Once Hamas realizes that there will be no second stage, they may not complete the first stage," the Haaretz source noted.
Thus, the situation remains extremely tense. The negotiations have reached an impasse, and the prospects for the fulfillment of the second phase of the deal are not clear. Against this backdrop, Israel has seen the usual demonstrations, with protesters demanding that the government not abandon the hostage deal.
Palestinian security expert Mohammed Al-Masri explained: Hamas slogans during the hostage transfer that the movement would remain in post-conflict Gaza could derail political and diplomatic activity.
- The second stage of the deal is quite large, but also painful for both sides." If this stage takes place, we may arrive at a new situation in which the occupation will end," the expert told Izvestia.
Trump has already said that if the hostages are not released on February 15, Hamas "hell awaits." Netanyahu, in turn, has made it clear: he does not rule out a resumption of hostilities instead of moving to the second phase of the deal. If a compromise is not found in the coming days, a new round of conflict could begin in Gaza, and hopes for a final settlement could be jeopardized.
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