No need to break away: Armenia will have to choose between the EU and the EAEU

It will be difficult for Armenia to permanently maintain a two-vector system - membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and the process of rapprochement with the European Union. Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin told Izvestia, adding that Yerevan will have to make up its mind at some point. On February 11-14, the republic will hold a parliamentary session to consider a draft law on the beginning of the EU accession process. The European Commission told Izvestia that they will discuss the document with the Armenian authorities. At the same time, there is no unified position on the issue of EU membership in the country. As opposition faction MP Gegham Manukyan said, the draft law in its current form does not have a clear legal form, and the country faces serious risks if it breaks ties with the EAEU.

Armenian Parliament to discuss rapprochement with the EU

On February 11-14, Armenia will hold a parliamentary session, one of the key topics of which will be the discussion of the draft law on the beginning of the process of the country's accession to the European Union. This issue is far from new, but recently its urgency has increased. Brussels says it is ready for dialog. However, Moscow doubts that the course chosen by Yerevan will be preserved painlessly, and balancing between the EU and the EAEU may become an unsustainable strategy.

- "As far as I understand, Armenian friends say that rapprochement with the EU should be gradual and that Armenia remains a member of the Eurasian Economic Union," Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin told Izvestia. - One way or another, it will probably be difficult to maintain this two-vector approach - membership in the EAEU and the process of rapprochement with the European Union. At some stage we will have to make up our minds.

At the same time, the republic remains a member of the EAEU, where it held the presidency last year. The Russian side highly assesses this period.

- Last year Armenia presided over the EAEU, and very successfully, we are grateful to our Armenian friends for such a really effective presidency," noted Mikhail Galuzin.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said earlier that the final decision on Armenia's accession to the EU can be made only through a national referendum. Back in February 2024, Brussels and Yerevan decided to start working on expanding bilateral cooperation. And on January 9, 2025, the Armenian government approved the draft law on starting the process of Armenia's accession to the EU and sent it to the parliament.

At the official level, Yerevan emphasizes that the draft law should not be perceived as an application for immediate accession to the EU. Its main purpose is to indicate Armenia's readiness for practical work on rapprochement with the union.

EU-Armenia rapprochement

Europe recognizes that the process of rapprochement with the EU is gaining momentum, stressing that Armenia has not yet submitted an official application for accession.

- Ongoing discussions in Armenia demonstrate the attractiveness of the European Union and its values. EU-Armenia relations have never been closer than they are now. The launch of the dialogue on visa liberalization and the €10 million support within the framework of the European Peace Fund have demonstrated this," the European Commission told Izvestia.

Brussels also reminded that the EU increased financial support through the program "Sustainability and Growth of Armenia" for 2024-2027 in the amount of €270 million. This program is aimed at strengthening the country's socio-economic sustainability, development of trade, transport communication and energy security.

As for the draft law on European integration, Brussels promised to discuss it with the Armenian colleagues.

- At the same time, active work is already underway within the framework of the Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA), which allows Armenia to get closer to the EU norms," the EC said.

Thus, although legally the issue of EU membership is not yet on the agenda, Armenia is already moving towards a deeper partnership with the EU.

Armenian opposition against EU membership

There is an active discussion about the country's possible European future in Armenian society. Some believe that joining the EU will open new economic and political perspectives for the republic, while others fear that it may lead to a rupture of relations with Russia.

There is no consensus among Armenian politicians and experts. The opposition is skeptical about the prospect of dual-vectorism, considering it impossible. Gegham Manukyan, a deputy from the opposition faction "Armenia", criticized the draft law in a conversation with "Izvestia". According to him, it "does not have a clear legal form."

- Part of the opposition believes that it is impossible, and even the authorities do not have a definite view and position. It is simply impossible to be in the EU and the EAEU. Our deputies have clearly stated that it is impossible to sit on two chairs. When the discussion is held in the parliament, we will reiterate our position," Gegham Manukyan noted.

He also accused the supporters of the European vector of not disclosing possible risks to the population. According to him, the forces promoting the bill ignore the fact that Armenia will be in danger in case of breaking the ties and turnovers that exist in the EAEU.

Let us remind you that the trade turnover of the republic with the countries of the association in the first half of 2024 amounted to more than $9 billion, which is twice as much as the same indicator of 2023.

- Many pro-Western parties say that we should get rid of the Eurasian Economic Union, but they do not mention the cost of this and the steps Armenia should take to get markets in Europe. For decades it has been impossible to find markets there," Gegham Manukyan said.

At the same time, the MP says there are clear differences between the ruling party and opposition political forces on this issue, although it would be an exaggeration to call it a split.

Exiting the EAEU will be a blow to Armenia's economy

The rules of the EAEU do not allow parallel participation of its member countries in other economic associations, which imply free movement of goods, services and capital. Armenia's rapprochement with the EU, and even more so its accession to the EU, will inevitably cause a conflict of interests with other EAEU members. If Armenia leaves the association, all trade regimes, including duty-free access to the Russian market, will be subject to revision. The rise in prices for imported grain, fodder and fertilizers will be painful, which will hit the country's agro-industrial sector and consumer spending.

One of the key features of the Armenian economy is considered to be high dependence on remittances from migrants and assistance from diasporas. On average, they amounted to 14% of the country's GDP annually in 1995-2020. In 2024, the total volume of remittances reached almost $4 billion. Russia and the U.S. remain the main sources, with remittances from the Russian Federation totaling more than $2.57 billion, five times more than remittances from the United States. This ratio shows how important it is for Armenia to maintain stable economic ties with Russia.

The republic's exit from the EAEU and reorientation to other markets will require a long adaptation period, which may take three to five years. According to IMEMO RAS analytical data, losses from the potential curtailment of trade and economic ties with Russia are estimated at 20% of GDP, which will inevitably lead to a deterioration in living standards and increased outflow of the population, especially qualified personnel. Migration to EU countries or the Russian Federation may become mass. For Russian business, Armenia's withdrawal from the integration association also carries risks, but their scale would be incommensurable with the economic losses that Armenia itself would suffer.