Stop plan: the risk of humanitarian catastrophe remains in Transnistria

A humanitarian catastrophe in Transnistria is inevitable if the real sector of the economy does not return to normal working conditions. The Foreign Ministry of the unrecognized republic told Izvestiya. Tiraspol noted that even after the temporary resumption of gas supplies, the economy continues to suffer enormous damage: the industry does not work, thousands of employees are idle, the budget deficit is increasing. Now gas is supplied in limited quantities until February 10. At the same time, Tiraspol is negotiating with Moscow and a Hungarian company to conclude a long-term contract for fuel supplies. Experts note that the resolution of the crisis is complicated not only by economic, but also by political aspects.

How long will gas return to Transnistria for?

The resumption of gas supplies has partially relieved the tension by bringing heat back to Transnistrian homes and canceling lightning blackouts. Nevertheless, it is still very early to talk about stabilization of the situation, the Foreign Ministry of the unrecognized republic told Izvestia.

- Gas is now supplied in limited volumes, only for the population and social institutions, as well as to generate electricity at our plant for the same categories of consumers. This means that the country's economy continues to suffer enormous damage: industry is not working, thousands of employees are idle, the budget deficit is increasing," the Foreign Ministry said.

Due to the crisis, trade turnover fell by 43% in January, including exports - by 60%, the ministry emphasized. In addition, collections from customs payments have decreased. For these reasons, the Transnistrian authorities decided to prolong the state of emergency.

- So far, at the expense of funds accumulated last year, we manage to fulfill social obligations, but if the real sector of the economy does not return to normal working conditions, a humanitarian catastrophe is inevitable," the diplomatic ministry said.

The crisis in Transnistria began after the cessation of Russian gas transit through Ukraine on January 1. A real humanitarian catastrophe has unfolded in the DMR. More than 1.5 thousand high-rise buildings were left without heating and hot water, and more than 70 thousand private houses were left without gas. Also heating was cut off in 131 schools and 147 kindergartens. In addition, almost all industrial enterprises, except for food enterprises, have stopped working.

Since February 1, Transnistria has been receiving gas purchased with funds from an EU emergency grant. This aid is intended for 10 days only. By the end of this period, Tiraspol aims to work out a sustainable and long-term solution for the supply of blue fuel. Relevant negotiations are underway with a company from Hungary, which can buy gas on the European market and supply it to Transnistria. Transnistria, in turn, intends to pay for it from the funds of the loan allocated by Russia.

- We are continuing dialog on this issue with the Russian and Hungarian sides. We are convinced that only this mechanism will make it possible to overcome the humanitarian-energy crisis. Moreover, it can be realized in the very near future, if Chisinau does not hinder it from its side," the DMR Foreign Ministry said.

It is important to note that Transnistria used to receive gas from Russia to operate, among other things, the Moldavian state district power plant, which provided the entire republic with electricity and covered up to 80% of Moldova's needs in this resource. After the stoppage of transit, the plant was switched to coal, but these reserves would only last until mid-February.

How the gas crisis in the DMR can be resolved

Gas can get to Transnistria only two ways - through Ukraine and from the south, through the Trans-Balkan gas pipeline, but here, before reaching the DMR, gas also passes through Ukraine twice. Therefore, Transnistria is a priori unable to solve this issue on its own: in any case, it would have to agree on transit either with Chisinau or Kiev.

Moldova is also in an energy crisis. At the same time, gas supplies to the DMR have stopped not only because of Ukraine's refusal to provide transit. On December 28, Gazprom announced that it would stop supplying fuel to Moldova because of debts to the company in the amount of $709 million. Chisinau refuses to recognize the debt for Russian gas in this amount, expressing readiness to pay only $9 million.

At the same time, even before the transit through Ukraine was stopped, Moldova introduced a state of emergency in the energy sector and switched to purchasing electricity from Romania. In early January, the republic had already announced a twofold increase in the cost of electricity and heat, which further aggravated the already long-lasting economic crisis. Localized protests have also repeatedly taken place in the republic.

The energy crisis failed to unite Tiraspol and Chisinau to find a joint solution, but only aggravated the already existing political tension between the parties. Even before the cessation of transit through Ukraine, the DMR had asked Moldova to jointly resolve the issue of supplies with Moscow and Kiev. However, there was no clear answer from Chisinau at that time. In addition, after the gas crisis began, Moldova repeatedly disrupted meetings with Transnistrian representatives to discuss the energy crisis.

In order to resolve the situation with gas supplies, Chisinau demands the withdrawal of Russian peacekeepers from Transnistria: Moldovan President Maia Sandu stated that after that she would ask Western countries to help the DMR.

In general, there are now two "projects" that can be used to solve the gas crisis in Transnistria - Moldovan and Russian, Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund and an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia.

- Gas is bought on the spot market from traders. But the gas is mostly Russian everywhere, just no one advertises it. Moldova offers to buy blue fuel on the spot market and supply it to Transnistria free of charge, but in exchange for the sovereignty of the unrecognized republic. Probably, the government of the republic intends to reintegrate Transnistria for the sake of full accession to the European Union. And the Russian project is that Tiraspol buys gas, Moscow gives money to pay for it, and Transnistria does not take any political action," he believes.

At the same time, it should be noted that if Tiraspol receives funds from Moscow, gas prices will remain unchanged in the DMR, which, however, is also disadvantageous for Chisinau.

- Thus, Moldovans will see that they have gone towards Europe and their prices are high, while Transnistria has not, and their prices have not increased either. This is disadvantageous for Chisinau," the expert emphasizes.

Therefore, it is likely that the EU's decision to allocate a grant to purchase gas for Transnistria is only a temporary political measure to portray a struggle for the lives of local residents, says Dmitry Ofitserov-Belsky, a senior researcher at the IMEMO of the Russian Academy of Sciences, to Izvestia.

With the arrival of heat and the end of the heating season, the situation in Transnistria will certainly get a little better. However, it is not excluded that the gas crisis itself in the unrecognized republic due to political tensions may drag on for a long time.