Next range: Belgium wants to acquire long-range weapons

The new Belgian government wants to strengthen the country's Armed Forces with long-range missiles, Izvestia has learned. It also intends to significantly increase defense spending in the next ten years. The expert community does not rule out that Belgium may join the program of development of missile systems with a range of 1,000 km or more, which is already being developed by France and other European countries. Such a goal can be achieved only within the framework of broad cooperation between the countries of the continent, experts say. On the active militarization of Europe and Russia's response - in the material of "Izvestia".

Belgium raises defense spending

The Belgian coalition government, which on February 3 was headed by the leader of the right-wing party "New Flemish Alliance" Bart de Wever, took a course to increase the capacity of the country's armed forces, "Izvestia" found out. The development program until 2029 says, among other things, plans to equip the army with long-range weapons, taking into account "new threats", the main of which comes, according to the authors of the document, from Russia.

"As part of the Mobile Capabilities (CaMo) program, we are strengthening the existing motorized brigade, increasing its capabilities, firepower and endurance. We will achieve this by further diversifying the strike platforms by increasing their ability to strike deep into enemy territory, as well as diversifying multiple rocket launchers (MLRS), UAV systems, ammunition and personnel," the document reads.

While Belgium currently spends only 1.3% of GDP on defense, the new government pledges to increase the country's military spending to 2% by 2029 and 2.5% by 2034. At the same time, the previous cabinet headed by Alexander de Croo aimed to reach the level of 1.54% of GDP by 2030 and 2% by 2035.

Recall that the CaMo cooperation program was concluded between the government of Belgium and France back in 2019 and envisaged the acquisition of several hundred French BMP Griffon and Jaguar and nine Caesar SAU by the Belgian side until 2030. However, the aggravation of the conflict in Ukraine in 2022 made adjustments to the plans of Belgium, France and other European countries.

It is indicative that in May 2024, amid discussions of Western long-range weapons deliveries to Kiev, French Defense Minister Sebastien Lecornu said that the question of the country's ability to strike "at long or very long distances" should no longer be taboo for the French. "Even a nuclear power must back up its capabilities with a conventional deterrent," he said at a meeting with the defense chiefs of Germany and Poland.

Then in July 2024, France, Germany, Poland and Italy agreed to jointly develop long-range missiles under the European Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA) project at the NATO summit in Washington. Paris stressed at the time that the conflict in Ukraine showed that long-range strike capability remains key to Europe's defense. Later, the UK, Sweden and the Netherlands joined the project.

Despite the fact that Belgium is not capable of building such a missile on its own, it has the potential to produce individual components, said Vadim Koroshchupov, a military expert and junior researcher at the Institute of International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences.

- There is a clear trend in Europe to possess this type of weapons, and it is quite likely that Belgium will join this program as well. In countries such as Belgium and the Netherlands, small and medium-sized enterprises are happy to take orders for the production of assemblies for such weapons. There used to be initiatives within two or three countries, but now we see initiatives of more than five. Thus, Europe realizes that only in the framework of broad cooperation they can achieve the desired results," he said in a conversation with Izvestia.

It cannot be ruled out that Belgium may initially purchase American HIMARS MLRS. Estonia has already taken a similar step, having received six systems from the U.S. in late January, paying $280 million for them. It is expected that their integration into the Estonian army will be completed by the end of this summer.

European development of medium-range cruise missiles

The ELSA project envisions the development of medium-range missiles capable of striking between 1,000 and 2,000 kilometers. In June 2024, at the Eurosatory arms exhibition in Paris, the European concern MBDA presented a mockup of a land-based cruise missile LCM, which is being developed on the basis of the existing ship-based missile system NCM, capable of striking at a distance of up to 1,000 kilometers. The sea-based 3SM Tyrfing missile being developed by Germany and Norway should be able to strike at the same distance in the future.

While such developments are underway, Germany is preparing to receive American SM-6 and Tomahawk missiles on its territory in 2026. Last July, the White House announced that this was an "occasional" deployment of weapons with ranges longer than existing ground-based firepower in Europe.

In any case, the development of intermediate-range missiles by European countries is one step toward achieving strategic autonomy from the United States. European leaders have repeatedly stated in the past that it is necessary. And such a strategy is certainly in the interests of the European military-industrial complex.

Programs like ELSA imply orders that allow national industrial complexes to develop and receive funding, military expert Dmitry Kornev explained to Izvestia.

- If Belgium joins this program, it will want to reap its benefits by using the weapons systems created in the future. But it is too early to say that we will see some powerful Belgian missiles in the future. Maybe we will see European missiles, in which Belgium will take a small part," the expert added.

Against the background of talk about the "Russian threat", European countries have become actively involved in a new arms race, and it is possible that the situation in this region will become as complex as in the era before the signing of the USSR and the United States of the Treaty on the elimination of intermediate-range and shorter-range missiles (MRMD), which allowed to significantly reduce the presence of US missiles on the continent. Recall that in 2019, following the US, Russia withdrew from this treaty. At the same time, after Washington announced its intention to deploy Tomahawk missiles in Germany in 2024, Moscow promised to respond to this threat militarily.

Obviously, the Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile with a range of 5,500 kilometers was one of Russia's responses to such a threat. In his address on November 21 last year, Vladimir Putin explained that the Oreshnik strike on the Ukrainian military-industrial complex facility in Dnipro was a reaction to the use of Western-made long-range weapons on Russian territory. The updated version of the Russian nuclear doctrine, which expanded the list of military threats and conditions for the use of such weapons by Russia, also served as a warning to Europe.